The Cool and Wet Spring has Nearly Wiped Out the Drought in the Region

Updated on Friday May 8th, 2013 - Chris Bowman
Note: This product will be updated on a weekly basis, as long the region remains in moderate drought or worse. This statement may be delayed due to current weather concerns and/or staffing availability however. The next scheduled update is around May 16th.

Summary:
The cool and wet spring has continued in the last two weeks with many areas from central through west central Missouri and eastern Kansas seeing above normal precipitation. In some cases this has been close to 200 percent of the normal amount for this period of time. The exceptions were a strip from extreme northeastern Kansas into far northwestern Missouri and across the northern tier or two of counties in Missouri. The persistently cool and wet conditions have eliminated drought conditions across most of Missouri, with the exception of far northwestern portions of the state, which remains in a moderate drought (D1). Eastern Kansas has also improved but still remains in abnormally dry (D0) or moderate drought levels.

 

Only portions of northwestern Missouri and eastern Kansas remain in moderate drought. Otherwise, conditions improve dramatically to the east.

Local Area Affected:
Abnormally Dry (D0) - Parts of northwestern and west central Missouri as well as parts of northeastern and east central Kansas.
Counties included in the abnormaly dry area:

In Missouri: Apart of or all of Atchison, Nodaway, Worth, Holt, Andrew, Gentry, DeKalb, Buchanan, Clinton, and Platte.

In Kansas: A part of or all of Leavenworth, Wyandotte, Johnson, Linn, and Miami.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Parts of northwestern Missouri and parts of eastern Kansas.
Counties included in the severe drought area:

In Missouri: a part of or all of Nodaway, Worth, Holt, Andrew, Gentry, Platte and Buchanan.

In Kansas: a part of or all of Doniphan, Atchison, Leavenworth, Wyandotte, Johnson, and Miami.		 The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between a number of federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can found at the web site:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The categories of drought are defined as follows:

Abnormally Dry (D0) - Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops, pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.
State and Local Actions:

Here is the latest map of Federal Drought Declarations.


Kansas Water Conservation Stages

Additional information concerning the drought in Missouri can be obtained via the Department of National Resources web site at:
http://www.dnr.mo.gov/env/wrc/droughtupdate.htm

Additional information concerning the drought in Kansas can be obtained via the Kansas Water Office web site at:
http://www.kwo.org/

Additional information about federal disaster declarations due to the drought and drought assistance information can be found at the farm service agecy web site at:

www.fsa.usda.gov
Local Climatology:
Below are April 1st, 2012 through May 8th, 2013 precipitation totals and deficits from selected locations across Missouri and Kansas:

      April 1st, 2012 - May 8thth, 2013 Deficits

Location

Rainfall
 Normal Departure
% of Normal
Kansas City (Intl Airport)
25.09"
 43.89" -18.80" 57
Kansas City (Downtown)
23.94"
44.09"
-20.15"
 54
St. Joseph
24.05"
40.87"
-16.82"
59
Olathe (New Century)
31.01"
45.98"
-14.97"
 67
Olathe (Johnson County)
30.92"
45.53"
-14.61"
68
Lee's Summit
32.23"
47.73"
-15.50"
 68
Chillicothe
37.62"
43.40"
-5.78"
 87
Kirksville
39.17"
44.60"
-5.43"
 88
Sedalia
37.02"
46.69"
-9.67"
 79

2013 Year to Date Precipitation (Through May 8th)
Location Total Dep Total Pcp Normal % of Norm
Kansas City (Intl Airport)
 0.63 10.56 9.93 106
Kansas City (Downtown)
 -2.12 7.68 9.80 78
Olathe (New Century) 0.96 11.37 10.41 109
St. Joseph -1.44 7.57 9.01 84
Lee's Summit 0.59 11.34 10.75 105
Olathe (Johnson County) -0.22 10.59 10.81 98
Kirksville 6.44 17.08 10.64 161
Sedalia 3.16 14.95 11.79 127
Chillicothe 5.48 15.54 10.06 154

Departure from Normal
Percent of Normal
 

 
Drought Comparisons: The grapic below depicts the top 5 driest two-year periods for Kansas City and compares them to 2012-2013 year-to-date precipitation totals.
 
 
Soil Moisture Conditions:



Missouri (Issued May 5th, 2013): Topsoil conditions were rated 2% short with subsoil conditions rated as 10% short or very short.
Kansas (Issued May 5th, 2013): Top soil conditions were rated as 33% short or very short and subsoil conditions were rated as 57% short or very short.

 
Additional information about soil moisture conditions can be found at the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Site at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soil_Mst/Monitoring
at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) at:
http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/
cliwatch/drought/drought.jsp
River and Streamflow Conditions:

Due to a cool and wet spring, many of the rivers in Missouri and eastern Kansas are running at near to above normal levels.

 Streamflow percent
Current Streamflow Conditions

 
Hourly and forecast river stages out to 90 days can be found at the National Weather Service's (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) web page:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=eax
Additional Current stream and river stages may be viewed at the following USGS Web Site:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/
StreamFlow Guide:

 
Agricultural Impacts:



For the state of Missouri, through May 5th, hay and other forages was rated as 67% short or very short, stock water was rated as 2% short, range and pastures were rates as 20% poor or very poor. 22% of the corn crop had been planted, 27 days behind last year and 18 days behind normal. Winter wheat was rated as 5% poor or very poor.

For the state of Kansas, through May 5th, the winter wheat crop was rated as 40% poor to very poor. 62% of range and pastures were rated as poor to very poor. 48% of stock water supply was in short to very short supply. Hay and other forages supply was 71% short or very short. 17% of the corn crop was planted which is well behind last year and the normal value.
Additional information on agriculture impacts may be viewed at the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service NASS Web Site:
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications
/State_Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.asp
As well as the Drought Impact Reporter Web Site:
http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/
Fire Danger:




Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI): Low Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI): Normal to Very Moist


Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI): The latest weekly PDSI indicates normal conditions in northeast Kansas and very moist conditions across northwestern Missouri.

1000-hour dead fuel moisture depicts levels greater than 30%. 100-hour dead fuel moisture also depicts levels in the 16-20% range. 10-hour dead fuel moisture depicts values in the 9-10% range.
Ketch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential. The KBDI is broken into four categories which indicate the susceptibility of ground fuels to fire danger. Below are the four categories and a brief description of each.

Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI)
KBDI Value
Description of Fire Potential
0 to 200
 Low - Wet with little danger of fire initiation
201 to 400
 Moderate - Drying occurring with some fire danger
401 to 600
 High - Ground cover dry and will burn readily
601 to 800
 Extreme - Dead and live fuels will burn readily

KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found on the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) web site at:

http://www.wfas.net
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF):
Here are the quantitative precipitation forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center for the upcoming 24 hours as well as a five day look.
24 Hour QPF Forecast 5 Day QPF Forecast

For updated precipitation forecast consult the following Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) Web Sites:

1 Day QPF Forecast:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

5 Day QPF Forecast:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml
Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks:

The 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks for May 18th through may 24th calls for near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The 30 day outlook for the month of May calls for slightly elevated chance for above normal temperatures over eastern Kansas and the western half of Missouri and equal chances for above, below or near normal precipitation. The 90 day outlooks, for the months of May through July, indicate a greater than 40% chance for above normal temperatures and equal chances for above, below or near normal precipitation.

8-14 temp probability
Latest Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

Latest Climate Prediction Center one month Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

Latest Climate Prediction Center three month Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks


For updated temperature and precipitation probabilities consult the following Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Sites:
8 to 14 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
products/predictions/814day/

30 Day Outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

/products/predictions/30day/
90 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products
/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=01
 
Questions or Comments:

If you have any questions or comments about this information please contact:

Chris Bowman
Drought Focal Point
National Weather Service-Pleasant Hill
chris.bowman@noaa.gov
Other Contacts:

For state climate impacts:

http://www.stateclimate.org
Acknowledgements:

The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA’s national weather service and national climatic data center, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the national drought mitigation center. Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, cooperative and volunteer observations, USDAFS, the USDA and USGS.

Related Websites :
NWS - http://www.weather.gov/kc
CPC - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Drought Monitor - http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
USGS - http://water.usgs.gov/
COE - http:// www.nwo.usace.army.mil/
 

 

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