Drought is Nearly Erased Due to a Wet August & September

Updated on September 25th, 2014 - Chris Bowman
Note: This is last update for this drought event.

Summary:

While much of the area remains slightly below normal for precipitation for the year, periods of heavy rain and cooler than normal temperatures have erased drought conditions across much of the area. Only portions of central to eastern and southern Missouri remain in drought, as well as portions of eastern Kansas.


           
 

Abnormally Dry (D0)  - Portions of central Missouri.

In Missouri: A portion of Pettis and Cooper counties.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between a number of federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can found at the web site:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

The categories of drought are defined as follows:


Abnormally Dry (D0)
- Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered.

Moderate Drought (D1)
- Some damage to crops, pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2)
- Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3)
- Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4)
- Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.
State and Local Actions:

Here are the latest map of Federal Drought Declarations.

Additional information concerning the drought in Missouri can be obtained via the Department of National Resources web site at:
http://www.dnr.mo.gov/env/wrc/droughtupdate.htm


Additional information concerning the drought in Kansas can be obtained via the
Kansas Water Office web site at:
http://www.kwo.org/


Additional information about federal disaster declarations due to the drought and drought assistance information can be found at the farm service agecy web site at:


www.fsa.usda.gov
Local Climatology:
Below is a table listing precipitation, normal precipitation, departure from normal and percent of normal for the year to date as well as two images showing the the departure and percent of normal for various periods of time:

Percent of Normal

Departure from Normal
 


 

 

Drought Comparisons: This graphic depicts the top 5 driest 3 year periods on record for the Kansas City area and compares them to the ongoing observed precipitation from January 1st, 2012 to September 24th, 2014.

 

 

 
Soil Moisture Conditions:



Missouri:
Topsoil conditions were 8% short or very short and subsoil conditions were 28% short or very short.

Kansas: Topsoil conditions were 34% short or very short and subsoil conditions were 47% short or very short.


Additional information about soil moisture conditions can be found at the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Site at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soil_Mst/Monitoring

at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) at:
http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/
cliwatch/drought/drought.jsp
River and Streamflow Conditions: Streams across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas are flowing at near to above normal levels for this time of year.

 

 
 

 


Hourly and forecast river stages out to 90 days can be found at the National Weather Service's (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) web page:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=eax

Additional Current stream and river stages
may be viewed at the following USGS Web Site:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/

StreamFlow Guide:

 

Agricultural Impacts:



For the state of Missouri,  through September 22nd, pasture conditions were rated as 13% poor or very poor, hay and other forages were rated as 5% short or very short, stock water supplies were 10% short or very short, corn was rated as 2% poor or very poor, with 21% harvested, and soybeans were rated as 6% poor or very poor.

For the state of Kansas,  through September 22nd, pasture conditions were rated as 23% poor or very poor, hay and other forages were rated as 15% short or very short, stock water supplies were 26% short or very short, corn was rated as 16% poor or very poor, with 26% harvested, and soybeans were rated as 13% poor or very poor.



Additional information on agriculture impacts may be viewed at the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service NASS Web Site:
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications
/State_Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.asp

As well as the Drought Impact Reporter Web Site:
http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/
Fire Danger:




Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI): Low/Moderate
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI): Near Normal
1000-hour dead fuel moisture depicts levels of 16 to 20%. 100-hour dead fuel moisture depicts levels of 11% to 20%. 10-hour dead fuel moisture depicts values in the 9% to 15% range.

Ketch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential. The KBDI is broken into four categories which indicate the susceptibility of ground fuels to fire danger. Below are the four categories and a brief description of each.

Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI)
KBDI Value
Description of Fire Potential
0 to 200
Low - Wet with little danger of fire initiation
201 to 400
Moderate - Drying occurring with some fire danger
401 to 600
High - Ground cover dry and will burn readily
601 to 800
Extreme - Dead and live fuels will burn readily

KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found on the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) web site at:

http://www.wfas.net
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF):
Here are the quantitative precipitation forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center for the upcoming 24 hours as well as a five day look.
24 Hour QPF Forecast 5 Day QPF Forecast

For updated precipitation forecast consult the following Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) Web Sites:

1 Day QPF Forecast:


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml


5 Day QPF Forecast:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml
Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks:

The one month outlook for October calls for equal chances for above, below or near normal temperatures with a slightly greater chance for above normal precipitation across far northern Missouri. The three month outlook for October through December calls for a slightly increased chance for above normal temperatures across far northern Missouri, with equal chances for above, below or near normal precipitation.

8-14 temp probability

Latest Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

Latest Climate Prediction Center one month Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

Latest Climate Prediction Center three month Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks


For updated temperature and precipitation probabilities consult the following Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Sites:
8 to 14 Day Outlook:


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
products/predictions/814day/


30 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

/products/predictions/30day/

90 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products

/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=01
 
Questions or Comments:

This will be the last update issued for this drought event unless conditions deteriorate significantly.

If you have any questions or comments about this information please contact:

Chris Bowman
Drought Focal Point
National Weather Service-Pleasant Hill
chris.bowman@noaa.gov


Other Contacts:

For state climate impacts:


http://www.stateclimate.org
Acknowledgements:

The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA’s national weather service and national climatic data center, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the national drought mitigation center. Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, cooperative and volunteer observations, USDAFS, the USDA and USGS.


Related Websites :
NWS - http://www.weather.gov/kc

CPC - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


Drought Monitor - http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

USGS - http://water.usgs.gov/

COE - http:// www.nwo.usace.army.mil/
 

 


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