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FGUS73 KFGF 202014
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MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-107-111-113-119-125-
135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-
077-081-091-095-097-099-301200-


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS
0215 PM CST MON NOV 20 2006

...AHPS LONG-RANGE LOW-FLOW PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE RIVER AND LAKE FORECAST POINTS IN THE GRAND
FORKS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

THE LONG-RANGE LOW-FLOW PROBABALILSTIC OUTLOOKS FOR THE RED RIVER...
ITS TRIBUTARY STREAMS...AND THE DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES BASINS ARE
PRESENTED BELOW.

THE FOLLOWING TABLE INDICATES THE CHANCES THAT THE RIVER AT A
SPECIFIED LOCATION WILL FALL BELOW THE GIVEN STAGES DURING THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

EXAMPLE...IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE 
RED RIVER AT WAHPETON WILL FALL BELOW 3.8 FEET.

.              LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC LOW-WATER OUTLOOK
.            FOR THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AND TRIBUTARIES

.          CHANCE OF RIVER LOCATION FALLING BELOW GIVEN STAGE
.             VALID NOVEMBER 27, 2006 - FEBRUARY 25, 2007

LOCATION    FS(FT)  90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    300%    20%    10%
--------      ---   ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
WAHPETON ND   10    3.9    3.9    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8
.                   4.42 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR WHNN8
FARGO ND      18   14.2   14.1   14.1   14.1   14.1   14.1   14.1   14.1   14.1
.                  14.53 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR FGON8
HALSTAD ND    26    3.4    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.1
.                   4.55 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR HILN8
GRAND FORKS   28   15.2   15.2   15.2   15.1   15.1   15.1   15.1   15.1   15.1
.                  15.82 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR EGFM5
OSLO MN       26    5.1    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.6
.                   5.50 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR OSLM5
DRAYTON ND    32   11.2   11.2   11.2   11.2   11.2   11.1   11.1   11.1   11.1
.                  11.32 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR DRTN8
PEMBINA ND    42    8.5    8.4    8.4    8.3    8.3    8.3    8.3    8.3    8.2
.                   9.87 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR PBNN8

LOCATION    FS(FT)  90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    300%    20%    10%
--------      ---   ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
SABIN         12    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7
.                   6.97 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR SABM5
HAWLEY         7    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2
.                   3.41 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR HWYM5
DILWORTH      12    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
.                   4.98 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR DILM5
TWIN VALLEY   10    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7
.                   2.09 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR TWVM5
HENDRUM       20    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6
.                   3.98 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR HNDM5
SHELLY        14    NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA
.                   3.75 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR SHYM5
HIGHLANDING   12    1.0    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5
.                   2.06 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR HIGM5
CROOKSTON     20    NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA
.                   3.46 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR CRKM5
ALVARADO     106    NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA
.                  95.66 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR ALVM5
HALLOCK      802  792.6  792.6  792.6  792.6  792.6  792.6  792.6  792.6  792.6
.                 793.87 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR HLLM5
ROSEAU        16    5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2
.                   5.52 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR ROSM5

LOCATION    FS(FT)  90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    300%    20%    10%
--------      ---   ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
ABERCROMBIE   10    0.8    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7
.                   0.97 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR ABRN8
VALLEY CITY   15    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
.                   3.90 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR VCRN8
LISBON        11    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2
.                   2.70 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR LBNN8
KINDRED       16    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2
.                   2.80 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR KNDN8
WEST FARGO    18    NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA
.                   8.17 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR WFON8
HARWOOD      884  866.4  866.4  866.4  866.4  866.4  866.4  866.4  866.4  866.4
.                 867.72 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR HWDN8
ENDERLIN       9    NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA
.                   2.61 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR ENDN8
MAPLETON     905  895.2  895.2  895.2  895.2  895.2  895.2  895.2  895.2  895.2
.                 895.83 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR MPLN8
HILLSBORO     10    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5
.                   1.85 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR HGRN8
MINTO          6    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2
.                   1.34 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR MTON8
GRAFTON       12    6.7    6.7    6.7    6.7    6.7    6.7    6.7    6.6    6.6
.                   7.10 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR GRNN8
WALHALLA      11    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9
.                   2.07 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR WLHN8
NECHE         18    NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA     NA
.                   2.87 IS THE INITIAL STAGE FOR NCEN8

THESE LOW-WATER OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF STAGE...FLOW
...AND VOLUME FOR THE FULL 90-DAY PERIOD...AS WELL AS GRAPHS OF WEEKLY
PROBABILITIES FOR THE FULL PERIOD. THE OUTLOOK GRAPHS AND EXPLANATIONS
THAT HELP IN THEIR INTERPRETATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET BY
GOING TO THE NWS GRAND FORKS HOME PAGE AT:

.          WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS (LOWER CASE)

AND CLICKING ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" LINK.

THE HIGH-WATER AND LOW-WATER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OULOOKS ARE
ISSUED EACH MONTH DURING THE FIRST WEEK AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.

$$
TEAM NWS FGF





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