2009 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK

FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH

 

 

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COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-150027-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
127 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2009

SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH

THE 2009 SPRING RUNOFF FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME FOR MOST OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.
HOWEVER...THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS HAVE A 10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
FLOOD FLOW THIS SPRING...

THE COLORADO RIVER AT CAMEO...
THE YAMPA RIVER AT DEERLODGE PARK...

PEAK FLOWS HAVE COME EARLY THIS YEAR...MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN
JUAN AND DOLORES RIVERS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED THEIR PEAK FLOWS...
AND PEAK FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ALONG
MANY OF THE OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH.

FLOWS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR CAMEO ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
AROUND MAY 21, 2009.

MINOR FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE LOW LYING AREAS ALONG
THE WHITE AND YAMPA RIVERS.

GIVEN THE HYDROLOGIC SOIL STATES AND THE SPRING CLIMATE OUTLOOK ...
APRIL THROUGH JULY STREAMFLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE...

NEAR TO 10% ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN...
NEAR TO 10% ABOVE NORMAL IN THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN...
125-135% OF NORMAL ON THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER...
NEAR TO 5% ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WHITE RIVER BASIN...
NEAR TO 10% BELOW NORMAL IN THE GUNNISON BASIN...
10% TO 20% BELOW NORMAL IN THE DOLORES RIVER BASIN...
10% TO 20% BELOW NORMAL IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN...
15% BELOW NORMAL IN THE ANIMAS RIVER BASIN...
15% BELOW NORMAL IN THE DUCHESNE RIVER BASIN IN EASTERN UTAH...

DESPITE THIS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MELT PERIOD CAN CAUSE OR EXACERBATE
FLOODING PROBLEMS IN ANY YEAR.

NOTE THAT SPECIFIC FORECAST PROCEDURES AND FLOOD FLOW LEVELS DO
NOT EXIST FOR ALL STREAMS IN WESTERN COLORADO.

OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
-------------------------
SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS AFFECTED WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH IN
APRIL AND EARLY MAY. A MAJORITY OF THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
RECEIVED ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN APRIL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...
129-150% OF NORMAL...WERE SEEN IN THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER BASIN...THE
ELKHEAD MOUNTAINS AND THE UINTAH MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN UTAH.
FROM THE YAMPA BASIN SOUTHWARD TO THE GUNNISON BASIN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE 110-129% OF NORMAL WITH THE HEADWATERS
OF THE WHITE RIVER...GUNNISON RIVER AND THE ROAN PLATEAU RECEIVING
100-109% OF NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW NORMAL IN
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE SAN JUAN BASIN
RECEIVED 90-99% AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN RIVER BASIN RECEIVED
BETWEEN 70-89% OF NORMAL.

THE SNOWPACK MELTED QUICKLY IN APRIL AND EARLY MAY. BY MAY 14
SNOWPACK DEPARTURES WERE BELOW NORMAL IN ALL AREAS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. SNOTEL REPORTS INDICATED THAT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT REMAINING SNOWPACK WAS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN
JACKSON...GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES. SNOWPACK THERE WAS GENERALLY 75-
85% OF NORMAL. THE FLAT TOPS HAD ABOUT 50% OF NORMAL SNOWPACK. THE
ELK MOUNTAINS...WEST ELK MOUNTAINS AND COLLEGIATE RANGE HAD ABOUT
30% OF NORMAL SNOWPACK.  THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS HAD ABOUT 20% OF
NORMAL SNOWPACK AND MOST OF THE SNOW HAD MELTED ON THE LA SAL AND
ABAJO MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN UTAH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS
THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE REMAINING MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK.


BASIN AVERAGED PRECIPITATION PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE 2009 WATER
YEAR AS OF MAY 14 2009
-------------------------------------------------------------

IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                           PRECIPITATION PERCENT OF NORMAL
-----                          -------------------------------
YAMPA/WHITE                     104%
UPPER COLORADO                  105%
GUNNISON                        102%
SAN MIGUEL/DOLORES/ANIMAS/
SAN JUAN                        96%

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                           PRECIPITATION PERCENT OF NORMAL
-----                           -------------------------------
DUCHESNE                        94%
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH               77%


BASIN AVERAGED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FOR MAJOR BASINS AS OF MAY 14
2009
------------------------------------------------------------

IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PERCENT OF NORMAL
-----                  ---------------------------------------
YAMPA/WHITE                             71%
UPPER COLORADO                          72%
GUNNISON                                43%
SAN MIGUEL/DOLORES/ANIMAS/
SAN JUAN                                33%

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PERCENT OF NORMAL
-----                  ---------------------------------------
DUCHESNE                                53%
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH                        0%


RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF MAY 6 2009
--------------------------------------------

 RESERVOIR                 USABLE     EOM USABLE  % OF
                           CAPACITY   CONTENTS   CAPACITY
                            (KAF)       (KAF)           %
----------------------------------------------------------
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|      490.3|       234.4|     48|
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|        9.1|         8.2|     90|
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|       96.9|        82.2|     85|
   WOLFORD MOUNTAIN RESE|       66.0|        57.5|     87|
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |      254.0|       225.8|     89|
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |      146.9|        72.3|     49|
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|       43.0|         7.6|     18|
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|      102.0|        68.8|     67|
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|       32.9|        19.8|     60|
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |      106.2|        77.0|     72|
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |      829.5|       580.1|     70|
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|      117.0|       113.6|     97|
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|       17.5|        16.9|     96|
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|       18.5|         1.5|      8|
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|       83.2|        72.5|     87|
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |      381.1|       330.0|     87|
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|      125.4|        93.5|     75|
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|     1701.3|      1332.1|     78|
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES/ |       39.8|        24.0|     60|
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|    24322.0|     12857.5|     53|
----------------------------------------------------------


CLIMATE OUTLOOK
-------------------------

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR MAY 2009 INDICATES THAT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE THREE MONTH
OUTLOOK FOR MAY...JUNE...AND JULY 2009 INDICATES BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO WITH BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.


CBRFC 2009 SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR THE PERIOD
MAY 2009 TO JULY 2009 AS OF MAY 6 2009
-----------------------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...

YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                      ---   ---   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV                 22   100     35   12.7     22
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS                   235    98    290    185    240
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR                          305   109    375    245    280
ELKHEAD CK
  ELKHEAD, NR                          35   106     49     23     33
  MAYNARD GULCH, BLO                   52   108     74     34     48
FORTIFICATION CK
  FORTIFICATION, NR                   4.0   100    6.0    2.5    4.0
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR                         840   101   1060    650    835
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR                          180   127    225    142    142
  DIXON, NR                           375   132    500    265    285
  LILY, NR                            405   131    545    285    310
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR                          255    98    355    186    260
  WATSON, NR                          280   104    385    175    270

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR             215   100    255    175    215
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR            44    94     56     34     47
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK                          20   104     24   17.0   19.3
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N       94   106    112     78     89
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES                          170   108    200    143    158
  GREEN MTN RES                       290   109    345    240    265
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO                 49    94     63     38     52
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR                       855   106   1000    700    805
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO                         340   108    420    270    315
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR                        1410   106   1700   1150   1330
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR               135   101    172    104    134
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                    685   103    825    565    665
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO              2100   105   2500   1750   2000
  CAMEO, NR                          2350   106   2800   1950   2220
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                            70    72    110     45     97

GUNNISON BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES                      89    94    111     69     95
  ALMONT                              146    97    170    115    151
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                              176    99    210    147    178
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR                        350    99    440    270    355
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                             47    69     76     27     68
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                             94    79    113     77    119
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES                       585    91    740    450    645
  MORROW POINT RES                    635    91    815    500    700
  CRYSTAL RES                         715    88    940    580    815
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR              75    91    109     49     82
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR                        255    98    320    199    260
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                          12.2    82   16.2    8.7   14.9
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES                          77    84    100     58     92
  COLONA                              102    83    140     72    123
  DELTA                                80    81    113     57     99
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR                 1230    92   1520    970   1340

DOLORES BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                             175    80    240    123    220
  MCPHEE RES                          200    77    275    141    260
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR                      99    85    127     75    117
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                           405    86    510    290    470

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                          4010    98   5100   3300   4080
MILL CK
  MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT            2.3    53    3.6   1.39    4.3

SAN JUAN BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                      164    85    215    135    192
  CARRACAS, NR                        290    89    360    230    325
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM       41    91     53     31     45
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO         51    88     66     39     58
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR                         151    88    196    113    172
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR         146    79    178    118    184
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR           565    92    700    440    615
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR               40    75     50     31     53
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                             320    82    410    245    390
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                           15.8    75     21   11.9     21
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                           845    87   1120    600    975
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR                           21    72     35    6.8     29

IN EASTERN UTAH...

LAKE POWELL
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT      6530    94   8000   5400   6940

EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN

                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
BIG BRUSH CK
  VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV     16.0    76     22   11.1     21
ASHLEY CK
  VERNAL, NR                           42    81     53     32     52
WF DUCHESNE RIVER
  HANNA, NR                            21    88     30   13.9     24
DUCHESNE RIVER
  TABIONA, NR                          87    83    114     64    105
WHITEROCKS RIVER
  WHITEROCKS, NR                       48    86     63     35     56
DUCHESNE RIVER
  RANDLETT, NR                        240    74    385    135    325
GREEN RIVER
  GREEN RIVER, UT                    2960    93   3410   2510   3170



MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 71-00 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 71-00 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.


FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
-----------------------

IN WESTERN COLORADO ...

BASIN LOCATION                  CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLOOD FLOW
--------------                  ------------------------------
YAMPA/WHITE AT DEERLODGE PARK   10%
UPPER COLORADO AT CAMEO         10%

IN EASTERN UTAH...

FLOODING DUE SOLELY TO SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
HTTP://WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

$$

BAL

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