| Occasional winter storms around Christmas remind us that the High Plains can be a winter wonderland during the holidays. However, the chance of having snow actually fall on Christmas Day, or having snow on the ground Christmas morning from a previous snowfall are actually rather low.
Looking back through weather records for the past 40 years, the year with the most snow on the ground Christmas morning occurred in 1982, when snow depth measured 10 inches at the Goodland National Weather Service office. In more recent years, northwest Kansas residents awoke to 5 inches of snow on Christmas morning in 1997, and 2 inches of snow in 1998. Most people likely remember these years as having a white Christmas.
But overall, only 10 years out of the past 42 have had one inch or greater snow depth on Christmas morning...which works out to be 24 percent of the years. The odds of receiving snow on Christmas Day are also quite low. Since 1960, in only 6 years of the 42 has snowfall measured a tenth of an inch or greater during the day...or 14 percent of the years.
One year ago, the month of December went down in the record books as having no precipitation. In addition, the dry December came on the heels of a November which produced only 6 hundredths of an inch of moisture. Those two events ensured a brown landscape on Christmas Day for northwest Kansas in 2002.
This year, winter officially arrives December 22nd at 12:04 am MST. The pattern has been active in recent weeks, with December 8th-9th bringing a round of snow and wind, and today (December 15th), light snow and 50 mph winds have combined to produce whiteout conditions. The big question is...will the active weather pattern continue into next week, providing a shot at a white Christmas in 2003? The latest guidance at this time, looking ahead to Christmas Day, does not show any major weather systems in the Central Plains. While this may be good news for holiday travelers, it is not good news for those wishing for that perfect Christmas scene with a white landscape. The bottom line is that Christmas 2003 will, in all likelihood, have a brown landscape, not a white one.
For climatological probabilities of a white Christmas across the entire country visit:
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/christmas.html
If you are traveling through the Tri-State Area this holiday, drive safely, and don’t forget to check for the latest National Weather Service Forecasts, Watches, Warnings and Advisories on NOAA Weather Radio, or visit our web site at: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gld/
David Floyd
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service Goodland KS
12/15/03
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