ARE YOU HOPING FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN 2004? |
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A White Christmas in 2004?
Each year as the holiday season approaches, the age old question arises: Will we have a white Christmas? Weather records for the area indicate that the odds are strongly against having measurable snow occur on Christmas day, or having snow on the ground Christmas morning from a previous snowfall.
Weather records for Goodland date back to the 1890s, with continuous records beginning in 1919. In the 91 year weather record, the year with the most snow on the ground Christmas morning occurred in 1941, when a 13 inch snow depth was measured. In addition, almost four inches of new snow fell during the day. The two week period from December 22nd, 1941 through January 7th, 1942 was cold and snowy in Goodland with many overnight temperatures below zero. 1982 was also a big year for snow around the holidays, with 10 inches of snow reported on the ground Christmas morning. In more recent history, the years 1997 and 1998 should be remembered for their white Christmas.
Here is a list of the years having a white Christmas, defined by a snow depth measurement of 1 inch or greater in the morning
1. 1941 - 13 inches
2. 1982 - 10 inches
3. 1939 - 8 inches
4. 1997 - 5 inches
5. 1968 - 4 inches
6. 1973 - 4 inches
7. 1983 - 2 inches
8. 1985 - 2 inches
9. 1998 - 2 inches
10-15. 1948, 1952, 1962, 1963, 1965, 1984 tied with 1 inch
Here is a list of years having a white Christmas, defined by measurable snowfall of 0.1 inch or greater during the day
1. 1941 - 3.9 inches
2. 1939 - 3.3 inches
3. 1982 - 1.3 inches
4. 1966 - 1.2 inches
5. 1985 - 1.2 inches
6. 1930 - 1.0 inches
7. 1990 - 0.4 inches
8. 1997 - 0.3 inches
9. 2000 - 0.1 inches
To put the weather records in perspective, the Goodland office has reported a snow depth of 1 inch or greater on Christmas morning in 15 of 91 years, or 16% of the time. During this same period of record, measurable snow falling on Christmas day itself occurred in 9 of the 91 years, or 10% of the time. Combining those years when snow either fell Christmas day or snow was already present from a previous snowfall, the probability of a white Christmas is 19/91, or 21%.
This year, winter officially arrives December 21st at 5:42 am MST. The weather pattern has been fairly quiet in December so far, and the forecast through December 22nd calls for generally dry weather conditions to prevail across the tri-state area. The big question is...will the fairly quiet weather pattern change to a more active pattern in the few days just before Christmas? That remains to be seen with Christmas still a week and a half away. However, the statistics above show the odds of a white Christmas are only about 1 in 5.
For climatological probabilities of a white Christmas across the entire country visit: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/christmas.html
If you are traveling through the tri-state area this holiday season, drive safely, and don't forget to check for the latest national weather service forecasts, watches, warnings and advisories on NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio, or visit our web site at: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gld/
David Floyd
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service Goodland KS
12/16/04
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