Computer forecast models are an integral part of the forecast process for operational Meteorologists. The majority of forecast models are run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Silver Spring, MD. The forecast models provide us of a simulation of an atmosphere, projecting it into the future. Thousands upon thousands of observed surface data, observed upper air data, and other observed data, worldwide, such as satellite are incorporated into complex meteorological equations in the forecast models. The forecast models are then run on a very large supercomputer system at NCEP at different times each day, and become available for government and private Meteorologists worldwide, with indirect availability to the general public. Private Meteorological companies also redistribute the model information to other users. The forecast models are only guidance based on numerous mathematical equation assumptions as to how a so called "normal" atmosphere should behave. The Meteorologist first relies on observed surface and upper air data, wind profiler data, satellite and radar imagery, and other observed data, to assess the current behavior of the atmosphere over a given area. Then a conceptual model is formed in his/her mind to project the atmosphere into the future. At this point, the use of forecast models come into the picture.
Additional Model Data
Known Model Biases - via the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center