National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) says:

• La Niña: An ongoing strong La Niña episode is expected to continue well into 2011. This tends to result in drier and eventually warmer than usual weather across the southern tier of states and into the southern & central Great Plains, contributing to increased fire potential. 

• Drought: Persisting and developing drought across portions of the southern and central U.S. will promote above normal significant fire potential during the late winter, expanding westward and northward in early spring.

• Fuel Dryness: Dryness across the southern tier of the U.S. this winter will expand areas of above normal significant fire potential westward across southern New Mexico & southeast Arizona and northward into the Colorado Front Range & Central Plains.

Here is the Drought Monitor, revised February 1th, 2011

The complete outlook can be found at NIFC.

Fire Outlook Discussion

Normal significant fire potential is expected through February, however will increase to above normal in southeast Colorado and Kansas from March through May. Significant precipitation deficits in the last 30 to 60 days continue over the Rocky Mountain Area over the southeast plains of Colorado into central and southern Kansas. Drought indices are severe in southeast Colorado and western Kansas. In spite of the drought and associated precipitation deficits east of the divide, the combination of cooler than average temperatures forecast early in the month along with occasional precipitation chances are anticipated to keep fire potential near average for the month. Warm, dry, and windy conditions combined with abundant cured 1-hour fuels will increase the likelihood of above average fire potential for southeast Colorado and Kansas.