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000 FXUS63 KICT 121137 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 637 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2008 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TODAY HOWEVER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS OF 25KTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 35-40KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR ICT/HUT/SLN TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. JAKUB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2008/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OUR FOCUS TURNS TO THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TODAY-TONIGHT: LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A WEAK POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (300-310K) MOVING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO. THIS IS ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. AS A RESULT...WE ARE SEEING A RESPONSE IN THE PROFILERS WITH THE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 40KTS AT 850MB AT VICI AND PURCELL. THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...DUE TO FULL SUNSHINE. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE ISSUED A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 BEGINNING AT 14Z AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEGINNING AT 17Z. IT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE BREEZY THIS EVENING BUT THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AROUND 800MB WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO MINIMIZE THE MIXING. WE WENT AHEAD AND YANKED OUT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THIS STRONG CAP EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG BOUNDARY ENTERING CENTRAL KANSAS. TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: IT APPEARS LIKE THE CAP SHOULD KEEP ITS GRIP ON THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE DID SPLIT UP OUR WEATHER GRIDS ON TUESDAY SINCE IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN CAPPED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT REGION. WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE MORNING SINCE THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LIFT DUE TO GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE THE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED IN A MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FASHION INSTEAD OF NORTH TO SOUTH. THE MEAN FLOW IS GENERALLY IN A MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION INSTEAD OF DUE WEST. 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER BUT STILL AROUND 50KTS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG INSTEAD OF 2500 J/KG. AS A RESULT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THEY MAY MOVE IN A MORE NORTHEAST FASHION AT SOMEWHAT SLOWER PACE. THIS SYSTEM ALSO DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS POTENT AS ITS PREDECESSOR...SO THE CAP MAY HOLD A LITTLE LONGER UNTIL AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ITS EVOLUTION AS IT DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES. SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO STAY TUNED TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: A COOL PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROF. COX && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 78 60 73 48 / 0 10 20 10 HUTCHINSON 79 58 71 47 / 0 10 20 0 NEWTON 77 59 72 48 / 0 10 20 10 ELDORADO 77 60 74 49 / 0 10 30 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 78 62 75 50 / 0 10 20 10 RUSSELL 80 55 67 44 / 0 10 20 0 GREAT BEND 80 56 67 44 / 0 10 20 0 SALINA 78 57 68 46 / 0 10 30 0 MCPHERSON 78 58 70 47 / 0 10 20 0 COFFEYVILLE 77 63 79 53 / 0 10 40 40 CHANUTE 76 61 77 52 / 0 10 40 30 IOLA 76 60 76 51 / 0 10 40 30 PARSONS-KPPF 76 62 78 52 / 0 10 40 40 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051-052-068-083-092. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047- 048-050-067-082-091. && $$
