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000 FXUS63 KICT 072124 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 322 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS PRECIP CHANCES MON AND MON NIGHT. SYNOPSIS: CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A SMALL CLOSED LOW JUST EAST OF BAJA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS SOME LEE TROUGH IN PLACE WITH A BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM SOUTH OF KGBD TO NEAR KMCI. THIS FEATURE HAS VERY LITTLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS IT AND IS MORE OF JUST A WIND SHIFT. TONIGHT-SUN: THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL TONIGHT INTO SUN WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER ENERGY REMAINING OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. WITH THIS UPPER PATTERN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE 70S. IN ADDITION WITH SOUTH WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT...WE MAY THREATEN A FEW WARMEST LOW RECORDS. SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: THESE PERIODS LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE ON TAKING SOME ENERGY OUT OF THE GULF AND TRACKING IT INTO SE KS. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER LIFTING THIS ENERGY NORTH AND HAS IT AFFECTING THE AREA BY 00Z MON WHILE THE NAM HAS IT MOVING IN AROUND 09Z MON. INITIAL THOUGHT WAS TO INSERT SOME PRECIP CHANCES LATE SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND TAKE A LOOK AT LATER RUNS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUN NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME SOME MID AND UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SLIDE THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AT THIS POINT THERE DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THETA-E ADVECTION...MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. THEREFORE FEEL THE BULK OF THE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE RESULT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HANG UP UNTIL ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA ON MON EVENING. THUS WILL LINGER PRECIP CHANCES MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SE KS. TUE-SAT: THE AIRMASS TO MOVE-IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND THUS WILL ONLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON WED AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN SOME WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FOR WED WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVAIL. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU WHICH WILL ALLOW THE MILD CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL. FRI INTO SAT OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL START TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WHICH LEADS TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE WILL NOT INSERT PRECIP AT THIS TIME. LAWSON && .AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU PRESSURE FALLS TO LEE OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL/SWRN KS...TO LIFT NWD TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL THEN RESUME AREAWIDE TONIGHT-SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CIGS TO OUR SOUTH IN ERN TX/SERN OK SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING AS OF MIDDAY. THE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THAT REGION WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT NWD INTO ERN KS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THAT SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO TRANSIENT SCT-BKN IFR CLOUD DECKS IN OUR AREA EARLY SUN AM...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE AM. JMC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 54 74 55 62 / 0 0 10 30 HUTCHINSON 52 74 53 61 / 0 0 10 30 NEWTON 54 74 54 61 / 0 0 10 30 ELDORADO 55 75 55 62 / 0 0 10 30 WINFIELD-KWLD 54 75 55 65 / 0 0 10 30 RUSSELL 46 73 46 58 / 0 0 10 30 GREAT BEND 47 73 47 59 / 0 0 10 30 SALINA 51 74 50 60 / 0 0 10 30 MCPHERSON 52 74 52 61 / 0 0 10 30 COFFEYVILLE 55 77 55 68 / 0 0 10 30 CHANUTE 55 77 55 66 / 0 0 10 30 IOLA 55 77 55 65 / 0 0 10 30 PARSONS-KPPF 55 77 55 67 / 0 0 10 30 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
