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000 FXUS63 KICT 032329 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 629 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009 .AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU SCT-NMRS STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVE FROM W-CNTRL THRU N-CNTRL KS...RESULTING FROM STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL ZONE. STRONG WIND GUSTS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MAIN IMPACT AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT RSL/SLN. MCS ACTIVITY COULD PUSH SLIGHTLY SWD THRU CNTRL KS LATE TONIGHT AS 50KT S-SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET ALLOWS SWD PROPAGATION AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THIS COULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO AFFECT HUT/ICT TERMINALS EARLY SAT AM. OTHERWISE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU SRN KS DURING DAY SAT. CAP WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN BY LATE PM WITH SCT TS DEVELOPING ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN KS BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO NRN OK SAT EVE. JMC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TONIGHT-SUNDAY: TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND CUMULUS IS BUILDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THAT COULD AFFECT A PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WOULD EXPECT MAINLY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT COMING SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THEY HAD BEEN INDICATING. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG SOUTHERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION MAY IN FACT BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS JUST A BIT...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE WITH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY-THURSDAY: THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE A TRANSITION TO A MORE SUMMER PATTERN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA HOT AND DRY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH CONFIDENCE LOW THAT THERE WILL BE STORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. SCHRECK AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ATTENDENT CONVECTION. NORTH AMERICAN MODEL DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF FRONT AND PROPAGATES THAT EAST SOUTHEAST...WHILE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF FRONT. NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNTING NORTH AMERICAN MODEL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT BEING ACCURATE ENOUGH TO USE FOR TIMING IN THE TAFS IS A STRETCH. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL IS PROBABLY A BIT SLOW AND WENT WITH SOMETHING IN BETWEEN. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. USED MAINLY VCTS FOR NOW...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING. APPEARS THAT FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST SITES BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 72 87 67 87 / 30 30 10 10 HUTCHINSON 68 85 64 87 / 40 30 10 10 NEWTON 69 84 64 87 / 30 30 10 10 ELDORADO 70 86 63 87 / 30 30 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 73 88 68 87 / 20 30 30 10 RUSSELL 67 83 60 87 / 70 10 10 10 GREAT BEND 64 83 60 87 / 60 10 10 10 SALINA 70 84 63 87 / 60 20 10 10 MCPHERSON 68 84 64 86 / 40 30 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 75 90 67 88 / 20 30 30 10 CHANUTE 73 86 66 86 / 30 30 20 10 IOLA 74 84 66 85 / 30 30 20 10 PARSONS-KPPF 74 89 66 87 / 20 30 30 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
