RSS FeedsHome | Oldest Product | Previous Product | Next Product | Newest Product |
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
Click on a highlighted term within the AFD text for a more detailed description of the term.
000 FXUS63 KICT 231750 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1150 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .UPDATE... PESKY FOG WILL LEAD TO A TWO HOUR EXTENSION TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS. EXPECT THIS FOG TO SLOWLY BURN OFF OR MIX OUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO DO SO...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA RAPIDLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL END THE FOG CONCERN BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS. KETCHAM .AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE PESKY DENSE FOG (LIFR) IN CENTRAL KS AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DECOUPLED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN CNTRL KS. EXPECT THIS FOG TO BURN OFF RATHER RAPIDLY BY AROUND 19-20Z AS CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WHICH WILL HELP MIX OUT AND BURN OFF THE FOG. THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z/TUE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO VCSH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AS A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL TEMPS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN NEAR THE KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 03-06Z/TUE. SO WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO EAST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. KETCHAM && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/ UPDATE... DENSE FOG WILL BE STUBBORN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AS MAIN MECHANISM TO GET RID OF THE FOG WILL BE IT BURNING OFF BY THE SUN. WITH LOW SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR....THIS BURN OFF WILL BE PAINFULLY SLOW. SO WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL AROUND NOON...AS LOW LYING AREAS WILL STILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG THROUGH NOON...BEFORE THE VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY IMPROVE. NEXT CONCERN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE PV-ANOMALY MOVING INTO WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIFT INCREASING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF KS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. THETA-E AXIS TIGHTENS ALONG INTERSTATE 135 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THIS IMPULSE/SURFACE LOW HELPS PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. KETCHAM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/ AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN CONCERN: DENSE FOG (VLIFR) IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS AM. DECOUPLED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN CNTRL KS...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN S-CNTRL KS SOMEWHAT INHIBITED THERE BY BAND OF CIRRUS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THRU ABOUT 16Z...AFFECTING RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT...BEFORE IMPROVING RAPIDLY. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED AT CNU THIS AM. OTHERWISE STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES ACROSS KS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BEHIND COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND AT CNU AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. JMC PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/ SYNOPSIS... ALL OF CNTRL & MOST OF SC KS ARE DEFINITELY IN A FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VSBYS <=1/4SM ALONG & W OF I-135. THE +FG SPREAD S OVER SC KS ~1AM CST AS A WEAK 850-MB TROF APPROACHING SC KS SCOURED OUT THE ~4,500FT STRATOCU THAT HAD RESIDED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA WHICH THEREBY ENABLED RADIATIONAL COOLING TO HIT FULL THROTTLE. THE +FG SHOULD LINGER OVER CNTRL KS A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT THRU THE 295K SFC IS A LITTLE STRONGER & BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ASSUMES MORE ELY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER TX/OK PANHANDLES. DISCUSSION... THIS MORNING: NO DOUBT IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS ON ALL FACETS OF +FG SHROUDING CNTRL & SC KS THIS MORNING. CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF +FG ADVISORY OF 10AM FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG & W OF I-135 LOOKS VERY GOOD AS DOES AREAL EXTENT SO NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THIS REALM OF FORECAST. THIS AFTERNOON: A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-UPR TROF PUNCHING SE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...WITH MID-LVL CYCLOGENESIS INCREASING MARKEDLY OVER WRN KS. IN CONCERT WITH LWR-DECK COHORT STRENGTHENING OVER SW KS AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE INCREASING SLY LWR-DECK FLOW SHOULD BOOST MAXES TO ~60F IN SC & SE KS. HOWEVER...A SFC COLD FRONT DEVELOPING OVER WRN KS WILL SURGE SE & POSSIBLY KNOCK ON DOORS ALONG WRN CORRIDOR OF THE KICT CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUCH A SCENARIO DICTATES KEEPING MAXES ~50F IN NW SECTOR WHERE & WHEN -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE. TONIGHT: WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID-UPR LOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIFTS IN ELY MANNER OVER KS...THE SFC-850MB COLD FRONT WILL SURGE E/SE ACROSS SC KS. WHILE THE SFC-850MB FUEL ISN`T OF A "HIGH OCTANE VARIANT" IT`LL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA OVER MOST OF KICT COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL-SE KS. THE DECELERATING MID-UPR LOW WILL ALLOW IT`S ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE TO LINGER OVER MOST OF ERN KS LONGER. AS SUCH CHANCES FOR EMBEDDED TSRA ARE INCREASING FOR NEARLY ALL OF ERN KS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED AREAL TSRA COVERAGE TO "SCT"...ESPECIALLY ALONG NE CORRIDOR WHERE MODERATE SHRA NOW ASSIGNED ALONG WITH INCREASED QPF. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE LWR AIRMASS WILL BE OF SUFFICIENT WARMTH TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION OVER CNTRL KS IN LIQUID FORM. TUE & TUE NGT: THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING...ESPECIALLY IT`S EWD PROGRESS. THE NAM IS NOTICEABLY SLOWER THAN IT`S COLLEAGUES BY POSITIONING THE MID-UPR LOW OVER THE KS/MO BORDER EARLY TUE EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS...ECMWF & UKMET WANT TO LIFT THE FEATURE NE TO NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER. REGARDLESS...MOST OF KICT COUNTRY SHOULD GET DRY-SLOTTED BY MID-DAY. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED MENTION OF -RA TO NE CORRIDOR WHERE NO DOUBT CLOSER TO WRAP-AROUND EFFECTS. WED-FRI: NICE WEATHER SLATED FOR THE NEIGHBORHOOD OVER THE HOLIDAY PERIOD. A 2ND MID-UPR LOW WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY WED & WED NGT AS IT SURGES SE OVER THE UPR/MID MS VALLEY. THE FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE REGION WED EVENING THEREBY RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT CHILLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 61 40 50 33 / 20 40 10 0 HUTCHINSON 58 38 50 32 / 20 50 20 0 NEWTON 60 40 50 33 / 20 50 20 0 ELDORADO 61 40 50 33 / 10 40 20 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 62 40 51 33 / 10 30 0 0 RUSSELL 52 35 47 30 / 30 60 30 0 GREAT BEND 54 35 48 30 / 30 50 20 0 SALINA 56 37 48 32 / 30 60 30 0 MCPHERSON 57 38 49 32 / 20 50 30 0 COFFEYVILLE 63 43 51 34 / 0 40 20 0 CHANUTE 62 43 50 34 / 10 50 30 10 IOLA 62 43 50 35 / 10 60 30 10 PARSONS-KPPF 62 43 51 34 / 0 50 20 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033- 047>051. && $$
