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000 FXUS63 KICT 231146 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 546 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN CONCERN: DENSE FOG (VLIFR) IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS AM. DECOUPLED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN CNTRL KS...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN S-CNTRL KS SOMEWHAT INHIBITED THERE BY BAND OF CIRRUS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THRU ABOUT 16Z...AFFECTING RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT...BEFORE IMPROVING RAPIDLY. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED AT CNU THIS AM. OTHERWISE STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES ACROSS KS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BEHIND COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND AT CNU AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. JMC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/ SYNOPSIS... ALL OF CNTRL & MOST OF SC KS ARE DEFINITELY IN A FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VSBYS <=1/4SM ALONG & W OF I-135. THE +FG SPREAD S OVER SC KS ~1AM CST AS A WEAK 850-MB TROF APPROACHING SC KS SCOURED OUT THE ~4,500FT STRATOCU THAT HAD RESIDED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA WHICH THEREBY ENABLED RADIATIONAL COOLING TO HIT FULL THROTTLE. THE +FG SHOULD LINGER OVER CNTRL KS A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT THRU THE 295K SFC IS A LITTLE STRONGER & BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ASSUMES MORE ELY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER TX/OK PANHANDLES. DISCUSSION... THIS MORNING: NO DOUBT IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS ON ALL FACETS OF +FG SHROUDING CNTRL & SC KS THIS MORNING. CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF +FG ADVISORY OF 10AM FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG & W OF I-135 LOOKS VERY GOOD AS DOES AREAL EXTENT SO NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THIS REALM OF FORECAST. THIS AFTERNOON: A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-UPR TROF PUNCHING SE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...WITH MID-LVL CYCLOGENESIS INCREASING MARKEDLY OVER WRN KS. IN CONCERT WITH LWR-DECK COHORT STRENGTHENING OVER SW KS AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE INCREASING SLY LWR-DECK FLOW SHOULD BOOST MAXES TO ~60F IN SC & SE KS. HOWEVER...A SFC COLD FRONT DEVELOPING OVER WRN KS WILL SURGE SE & POSSIBLY KNOCK ON DOORS ALONG WRN CORRIDOR OF THE KICT CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUCH A SCENARIO DICTATES KEEPING MAXES ~50F IN NW SECTOR WHERE & WHEN -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE. TONIGHT: WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID-UPR LOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIFTS IN ELY MANNER OVER KS...THE SFC-850MB COLD FRONT WILL SURGE E/SE ACROSS SC KS. WHILE THE SFC-850MB FUEL ISN`T OF A "HIGH OCTANE VARIANT" IT`LL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA OVER MOST OF KICT COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL-SE KS. THE DECELERATING MID-UPR LOW WILL ALLOW IT`S ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE TO LINGER OVER MOST OF ERN KS LONGER. AS SUCH CHANCES FOR EMBEDDED TSRA ARE INCREASING FOR NEARLY ALL OF ERN KS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED AREAL TSRA COVERAGE TO "SCT"...ESPECIALLY ALONG NE CORRIDOR WHERE MODERATE SHRA NOW ASSIGNED ALONG WITH INCREASED QPF. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE LWR AIRMASS WILL BE OF SUFFICIENT WARMTH TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION OVER CNTRL KS IN LIQUID FORM. TUE & TUE NGT: THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING...ESPECIALLY IT`S EWD PROGRESS. THE NAM IS NOTICEABLY SLOWER THAN IT`S COLLEAGUES BY POSITIONING THE MID-UPR LOW OVER THE KS/MO BORDER EARLY TUE EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS...ECMWF & UKMET WANT TO LIFT THE FEATURE NE TO NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER. REGARDLESS...MOST OF KICT COUNTRY SHOULD GET DRY-SLOTTED BY MID-DAY. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED MENTION OF -RA TO NE CORRIDOR WHERE NO DOUBT CLOSER TO WRAP-AROUND EFFECTS. WED-FRI: NICE WEATHER SLATED FOR THE NEIGHBORHOOD OVER THE HOLIDAY PERIOD. A 2ND MID-UPR LOW WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY WED & WED NGT AS IT SURGES SE OVER THE UPR/MID MS VALLEY. THE FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE REGION WED EVENING THEREBY RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT CHILLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 61 40 45 33 / 20 40 10 0 HUTCHINSON 58 41 44 32 / 20 50 20 0 NEWTON 60 41 45 33 / 20 50 20 0 ELDORADO 61 41 46 33 / 10 40 20 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 62 39 45 33 / 10 30 0 0 RUSSELL 52 40 45 30 / 30 60 30 0 GREAT BEND 54 39 44 30 / 30 50 20 0 SALINA 56 43 45 32 / 30 60 30 0 MCPHERSON 57 42 45 32 / 20 50 30 0 COFFEYVILLE 63 45 48 34 / 0 40 20 0 CHANUTE 62 45 49 34 / 10 50 30 10 IOLA 62 46 49 35 / 10 60 30 10 PARSONS-KPPF 62 45 48 34 / 0 50 20 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033- 047>051-067-068-082-083-091-092. && $$
