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000 FXUS63 KICT 222136 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 336 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SYNOPSIS: A SURFACE LOW IS SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...CENTERED NEAR PRATT. THE LOW IS MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WINDS AT KGBD JUST CHANGING TO NORTH AT 21Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TONIGHT-TUESDAY: THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 14. THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE STEADILY APPROACHED THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AND EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION...TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT STILL DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ENOUGH FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE UPPER LOW EAST MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH HPC FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND SUNNY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SCHRECK && .AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU ONGOING MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG/W OF INTERSTATE 135 CORRIDOR GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT MUCH OF A SCOURING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING ON THE EDGES. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER BUT RISE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE SOME PROGRESS TO THE EAST. SFC TROF AXIS OVER WRN KS WILL PUSH INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS BY THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN/STALL THRU TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...LIKELY LEADING TO ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF IFR STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROF AXIS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE DECOUPLED. THIS WILL CERTAINLY AFFECT THE KICT/KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER NEAR KCNU...WHERE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MON...BUT IFR STRATUS WILL STAY TO THE WEST OF THIS SITE. KETCHAM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 41 61 35 52 / 10 10 30 10 HUTCHINSON 38 58 32 49 / 10 20 30 10 NEWTON 40 60 34 48 / 10 20 30 10 ELDORADO 39 61 36 49 / 10 10 40 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 42 63 38 52 / 10 10 40 10 RUSSELL 35 52 28 47 / 10 20 20 10 GREAT BEND 35 54 28 48 / 10 20 20 10 SALINA 39 55 31 47 / 10 20 30 20 MCPHERSON 40 57 32 49 / 10 20 30 10 COFFEYVILLE 46 63 42 51 / 10 10 40 10 CHANUTE 45 62 41 48 / 10 10 50 10 IOLA 45 62 40 46 / 10 10 50 20 PARSONS-KPPF 45 63 42 49 / 10 10 40 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
