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000 FXUS63 KICT 221622 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1022 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009 .UPDATE... STRATUS MOVED BACK INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE NEAR KHUT AND KINGMAN. SHORT TERM MODELS DID AN OKAY JOB WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD DECK. CURRENT RUC AND NAM SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AS THIS STRATUS DECK MOVES ALONG. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL PATCHES OF DRIZZLE...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONE....GIVEN ITS ISOLATED NATURE. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS IN CENTRAL KS...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES HAVE LEAD TO TEMPS CLOSE TO MAX TEMPS ALREADY BEING REACHED. KETCHAM && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/ AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU ONGOING IFR STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING ALONG/W OF I-135 CORRIDOR GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT MUCH OF A SCOURING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING ON THE ERN EDGE. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER BUT RISE TO MVFR INTO THIS PM ALONG/W OF HIGHWAY 14. SFC TROF AXIS OVER WRN KS WILL PUSH INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS BY EVENING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN/STALL THRU TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AM...LIKELY LEADING TO ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF IFR STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROF AXIS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE DECOUPLED. JMC PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/ SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL NEBRASKA S/SW ACROSS NW KS TO NE NM AT 3 AM CST. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SE TODAY WITH BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WRN CORRIDOR OF KICT COUNTRY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEREUPON THE BOUNDARY WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL OF KICT CWA TRAPPED IN A FAIRLY WARM MOIST ENVIRONMENT THRU MON AFTERNOON WHEN MID LVL CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER WRN NEBRASKA WILL KICK IT`S ATTENDANT & STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY MON NGT. DISCUSSION... TODAY & TONIGHT: WITH MOISTURE-LADEN SLY LWR-DECK FLOW PREVAILING SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INHIBIT THE FOG...IF IT DEVELOPS...FROM BECOMING DENSE. THE GREATER POTENTIAL IS FOR STRATUS TO INCREASE OVER CNTRL & SC KS & PERSIST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT A WARM START TO TEMPS DICTATES KEEPING INHERITED MAXES INTACT. WITH A WEAK MOIST SLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG SHOULD INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL KS WHERE CLOSER TO THE DISSIPATING FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLIGHTS ON "HIGH BEAM" FOR DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF CNTRL KS. MON-WED: PER "SYNOPSIS" THE CHANCES FOR SHRA & EMBEDDED TSRA ARE INCREASING MOST AREAS MON NGT...ESPECIALLY ALONG & E OF I-135. WELL-DEFINED LWR-DECK MOISTURE AXIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LIFT INDUCED BY THE STRENGTHENING MID-LVL LOW DICTATES INCREASING POPS TO 30-50% OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ASSIGNED TO SE KS. MON NGT`S MINS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF SLY FLOW INCREASES PRIOR TO COLD FRONT`S ARRIVAL. WITH THE INTENSIFYING MID-UPR LOW MOVING SE TOWARD SE NEBRASKA/NE KS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE AS IT SURGES E/SE ACROSS SE KS TUE MORNING. AS SUCH ANY CHANCES FOR WRAP-AROUND ASSOCIATED RA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NE CORRIDOR ON TUE. REST OF INHERITED FORECAST KEPT INTACT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 60 40 61 35 / 10 0 10 30 HUTCHINSON 57 39 58 32 / 10 0 20 30 NEWTON 59 40 60 34 / 10 0 20 30 ELDORADO 60 42 61 36 / 10 0 10 40 WINFIELD-KWLD 61 42 63 38 / 10 0 10 40 RUSSELL 55 37 52 28 / 10 0 20 10 GREAT BEND 56 37 54 28 / 10 0 20 10 SALINA 57 39 55 31 / 10 0 20 30 MCPHERSON 58 39 57 32 / 10 0 20 30 COFFEYVILLE 62 45 63 42 / 10 0 10 40 CHANUTE 61 44 62 41 / 10 0 10 50 IOLA 61 43 62 40 / 10 0 10 50 PARSONS-KPPF 62 45 63 42 / 10 0 10 40 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
