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000 FXUS63 KICT 220532 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1132 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AFFECTING MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AS A WEAK FRONT BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THUS VEERING THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AROUND SUNSET. JAKUB && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SYNOPSIS: LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME SUNSHINE HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TONIGHT: LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WHETHER PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL REDEVELOP. SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS MOISTURE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS EXTREME WRN KS MOVES INTO WRN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KS BY EARLY ON SUN. PREFER TO GO WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS WHICH KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT. SO WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION...ESPECIALLY FROM 09-14Z/SUN. COULD ALSO SEE LOW LAYERS SATURATE ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS EARLY ON SUN...SO WILL KEEP THIS MENTION AS WELL. KETCHAM SUNDAY-TUESDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TODAY...WITH THE GFS TAKING THE BEST DYNAMICS ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND ECMWF ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S CONSISTENCY OVER SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL MEAN THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE FIRST CHUNK OF COLD AIR COMES SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER CHUNK OF COLD AIR COMING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO 850MB TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...OR SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STAY TUNED... SCHRECK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 44 57 40 61 / 10 10 0 20 HUTCHINSON 44 56 40 60 / 10 10 10 20 NEWTON 44 55 39 59 / 10 10 10 20 ELDORADO 42 57 38 59 / 10 10 10 20 WINFIELD-KWLD 44 58 42 61 / 10 10 0 20 RUSSELL 38 55 33 54 / 10 10 10 20 GREAT BEND 41 54 35 54 / 10 10 0 20 SALINA 41 57 39 58 / 10 10 10 20 MCPHERSON 44 57 40 59 / 10 10 10 20 COFFEYVILLE 45 63 45 61 / 10 10 10 20 CHANUTE 45 63 44 61 / 10 10 10 20 IOLA 44 61 42 59 / 10 10 10 20 PARSONS-KPPF 45 63 45 61 / 10 10 10 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
