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000 FXUS63 KICT 211143 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 543 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 .AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN IMPACTS: POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT NOW TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUILD-DOWN THIS AM AS A RESULT WITH SOME IFR CIGS LIKELY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY IN PLACE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH TODAY BENEATH STRONG INVERSION FROM 800-700 MB. THE GFS AND NAM-WRF BOTH SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG/W OF I-135 AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF AXIS. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOKS LIKELY THERE TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. JMC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE CLOUDS TODAY AND THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYNOPSIS: LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...VISIBILITIES HAVE DECREASED SOME IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT. TODAY-SUNDAY: FOG COULD STILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...UNSURE OF HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL GET WITH THE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA. BUT FEEL THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP. HAVE LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTACT FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HOLD ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN THE NAM...AND THE GFS KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND ALL DAY. DO FEEL THAT THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE IF THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AND SUNDAY MORNING COULD BRING MORE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...IT WILL BE A NICE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. MONDAY-TUESDAY: THIS REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO DIG THE TROUGH AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND THE UK MET AND NAM AND EVEN SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LIKE THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WILL TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 81 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...IF THIS TRACK HOLDS. WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES SOME ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING. TUESDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: THE TUESDAY WEATHER MAKER WILL EXIT THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A NICE THANKSGIVING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND NO PRECIPITATION TO MENTION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BILLINGS $$ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 60 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 0 HUTCHINSON 58 44 56 40 / 10 10 10 10 NEWTON 58 44 55 39 / 10 10 10 10 ELDORADO 61 42 57 38 / 10 10 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 61 44 58 42 / 10 10 10 0 RUSSELL 58 38 55 33 / 10 10 10 10 GREAT BEND 56 41 54 35 / 10 10 10 0 SALINA 58 41 57 39 / 10 10 10 10 MCPHERSON 58 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 62 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10 CHANUTE 62 45 63 44 / 10 10 10 10 IOLA 62 44 61 42 / 10 10 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 63 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ047>053-067>072- 082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$
