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000 FXUS63 KICT 202112 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 312 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE DENSE FOG LIKELIHOOD TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS...AND STRATUS AND FOG ARE PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING SOON AFTER MOVING NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON: WITH CURRENT TRENDS IN BOTH RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE...REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SE KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRONGER OVER EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EXPECT THE MAIN BULK OF PRECIP TO STAY DOWN THERE. WITH NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE WINDS...CLOUDS HAVE REMAIN NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING ACROSS KS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. DUNTEN TONIGHT-SUNDAY: SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATE QUICKLY AROUND 9Z...AND ARE SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 750MB. FROM 9Z TO ABOUT 15Z...SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION RIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. AN ADVECTION TYPE FOG SCENARIO IS LIKELY WITH THESE CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL DENSE FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SO WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AT THIS POINT AND THEN LET LATER SHIFTS EXPAND IF NECESSARY. THE DENSE FOG SHOULD TRANSITION TO NON-DENSE FOG ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA AROUND MID-MORNING...AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WILL KEEP THAT MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. SCHRECK MONDAY-TUESDAY: AM FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE FRONT. BIG QUESTION WILL REMAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF IOWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT THIS BEING OUR COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WEATHER LOOKS GOOD FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS. RHE && .AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA. INITIALLY THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS INTO KICT AND KHUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THIS MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH INTO CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT. CERTAINLY HAVE SOME CONCERNS IN MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY IFR FOG MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z/SAT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...AS MOISTURE BUILDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH A POSSIBLE STRATUS BUILD DOWN SITUATION DEVELOPING. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO WATCH THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAF SITES FOR THE 10-14Z/SAT TIME FRAME AS VISIBILITIES COULD BECOME LIFR. WILL LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES LOOK AT THIS CHANCE. KETCHAM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 41 59 43 56 / 0 10 10 10 HUTCHINSON 39 57 41 55 / 0 10 10 10 NEWTON 42 57 42 54 / 0 10 10 10 ELDORADO 40 58 41 56 / 0 10 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 45 62 43 57 / 10 10 10 10 RUSSELL 32 58 38 54 / 0 10 10 10 GREAT BEND 33 57 37 53 / 0 10 10 10 SALINA 37 56 42 56 / 0 10 10 20 MCPHERSON 39 57 42 56 / 0 10 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 47 59 43 62 / 10 20 10 10 CHANUTE 44 57 44 62 / 10 20 10 10 IOLA 43 56 43 60 / 10 20 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 45 58 43 62 / 10 20 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ067>072- 082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$
