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000 FXUS63 KICT 242124 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 324 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST HIGHLIGHT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE THE WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK STORM SYSTEM. TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD AID IN KEEPING THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING ALONG WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN CANADA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE HEARTLAND ON WEDNESDAY. NAM/GFS INDICATE A NARROW ZONE OF STRONG AND DEEP FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE PARENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...THINKING THE STRENGTH OF FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM HUTCHINSON TO NEWTON TO MADISON. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES GETTING INTO THE WICHITA AREA BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY. IN WAKE OF THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...MID/UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND...PER MOST MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...DRY WEATHER...SUNNY SKIES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. READINGS ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST OF INTEREST...AS MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES PROGRESS A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. MODEL CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAS BEEN FAIR TO POOR...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...DESPITE LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUN...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS...SO HAVE SIDED CLOSER WITH THIS MORNING`S ECMWF MODEL RUN. SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE POSITIVELY TILTED...SO A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...CURRENT PROJECTIONS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT WOULD INDICATE DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN OVER EASTERN KS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER GENERALLY THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3 OF KS. AS STATED EARLIER...SINCE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE POSITIVELY TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE...CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A MAJOR WINTER STORM. HOWEVER THIS TIME PERIOD CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING AS MODEL RUNS COULD VERY EASILY CHANGE...SO PLEASE STAY TUNED IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ADK && .AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ALBERTA CANADA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO NEBRASKA...THIS MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO UNDERGO FRONTOGENESIS AFTER DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT...WE MAY SEE NORTHWEST WINDS BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS PROJECT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE BRINGS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8-10KFT) INTO THE AREA. COX && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 29 52 27 53 / 0 10 0 0 HUTCHINSON 29 51 27 54 / 0 10 0 0 NEWTON 30 51 28 52 / 0 10 0 0 ELDORADO 30 51 28 52 / 0 10 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 30 54 29 53 / 0 10 0 0 RUSSELL 28 49 25 55 / 0 10 0 0 GREAT BEND 27 50 24 55 / 0 10 0 0 SALINA 30 50 28 52 / 0 10 0 0 MCPHERSON 29 50 27 53 / 0 10 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 32 54 29 51 / 0 10 0 0 CHANUTE 32 52 28 49 / 0 10 0 0 IOLA 32 51 27 48 / 0 10 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 32 53 29 50 / 0 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
