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000 FXUS63 KICT 210402 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1002 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009 .UPDATE... 00 UTC MODELS ONCE AGAIN OFF TO POOR START WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TRENDS. LOCAL WRF IS FARING BEST WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS. FOG CHANCES ARE NOW LOOKING MUCH BETTER IN SOUTHEAST KS GIVEN CURRENT CLEARING TREND THERE. AS SATURATED AIR ACROSS NE OK IS ADVECTED UPHILL INTO THE COOLER AIR...SHOULD SEE DECENT CHANCE OF DENSE FOG. FOR AREA GENERALLY WEST OF I-35...THIS PROCESS MAY NOT GET GOING IN EARNEST UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH UPPER 40 DEW POINTS LIKELY PUSHING UPHILL INTO MID-UPPER 30 DEGREE AIR...SHOULD SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY EXPAND TO THE WEST/NORTH OF ICT. AS A RESULT...HAVE EXPANDED THE FOG ADVISORY SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES TO THE NORTH/WEST...DELAYED THE ONSET BY AN HOUR AND EXTENDED IT UNTIL NOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE APPEARS TO HANG AROUND ALL MORNING OVER PART OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. -HOWERTON && .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU AS EXPECTED...00 UTC MODELS CAME IN WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL HAVE NOT BEEN TRACKING WELL WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS/TRENDS. BELIEVE FOG WILL BE A COMBINATION OF RADIATION...ADVECTION AND BUILD-DOWN PROCESSES. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF KHUT-KRSL. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 30S AT KRSL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 18 UTC WITH INCREASED MIXING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/ AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU GIVEN RATHER POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ACCURACY OF DETAILS WITH THIS FORECAST. 1800 UTC NORTH AMERICAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE OFF TO A BETTER START...ALTHOUGH A BIT LACKING IN BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NE OK WHERE SOME IFR CEILINGS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. AT FACE VALUE IT WOULD SUGGEST LOWEST CONDITIONS ALONG WESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING. LOW IFR WOULD BE LIKELY IF NORTH AMERICAN MODEL IS CORRECT AT KRSL/KHUT/KICT BUT WOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST 1800 UTC WHEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING. -HOWERTON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE DENSE FOG LIKELIHOOD TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS...AND STRATUS AND FOG ARE PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING SOON AFTER MOVING NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON: WITH CURRENT TRENDS IN BOTH RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE...REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SE KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRONGER OVER EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EXPECT THE MAIN BULK OF PRECIP TO STAY DOWN THERE. WITH NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE WINDS...CLOUDS HAVE REMAIN NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING ACROSS KS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. DUNTEN TONIGHT-SUNDAY: SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATE QUICKLY AROUND 9Z...AND ARE SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 750MB. FROM 9Z TO ABOUT 15Z...SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION RIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. AN ADVECTION TYPE FOG SCENARIO IS LIKELY WITH THESE CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL DENSE FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SO WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AT THIS POINT AND THEN LET LATER SHIFTS EXPAND IF NECESSARY. THE DENSE FOG SHOULD TRANSITION TO NON-DENSE FOG ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA AROUND MID-MORNING...AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WILL KEEP THAT MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. SCHRECK MONDAY-TUESDAY: AM FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE FRONT. BIG QUESTION WILL REMAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF IOWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT THIS BEING OUR COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WEATHER LOOKS GOOD FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS. RHE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 45 59 43 56 / 0 10 10 10 HUTCHINSON 39 57 41 55 / 0 10 10 10 NEWTON 41 57 42 54 / 0 10 10 10 ELDORADO 43 58 41 56 / 0 10 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 47 62 43 57 / 10 10 10 10 RUSSELL 36 58 38 54 / 0 10 10 10 GREAT BEND 37 57 37 53 / 0 10 10 10 SALINA 37 56 42 56 / 0 10 10 20 MCPHERSON 39 57 42 56 / 0 10 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 46 59 43 62 / 10 10 10 10 CHANUTE 42 57 44 62 / 10 10 10 10 IOLA 42 56 43 60 / 10 10 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 44 58 43 62 / 10 10 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$
