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000 FXUS63 KICT 201747 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1147 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009 .AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA. INITIALLY THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS INTO KICT AND KHUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THIS MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH INTO CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT. CERTAINLY HAVE SOME CONCERNS IN MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY IFR FOG MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z/SAT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...AS MOISTURE BUILDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH A POSSIBLE STRATUS BUILD DOWN SITUATION DEVELOPING. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO WATCH THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAF SITES FOR THE 10-14Z/SAT TIME FRAME AS VISIBILITIES COULD BECOME LIFR. WILL LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES LOOK AT THIS CHANCE. KETCHAM && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/ UPDATE... CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. UPDATED GRIDS TO KEEP FOG IN TILL 18Z. IN SOUTHERN KS...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ALONG THE KS/OK BOARDER. WITH THE MOISTURE AREA STREAMING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. TWEAKED THE MAX TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEAR SKIES IN CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DUNTEN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/ AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU PATCHY EARLY AM FOG COULD AFFECT SITES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO SERN KS TODAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA IN SERN KS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION AT CNU TAF. LATER TONIGHT...FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SERLY WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TRYING TO ADVECT NWWRD INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS INTO AN AIRMASS EXPERIENCING RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONCERNED WE COULD SEE IFR VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOP AS A RESULT TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. JMC PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SYNOPSIS: CURRENTLY THE ELONGATED PV ANOMALY IS APPROACHING THE AREA...AND INDUCING LIFT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. TODAY-TONIGHT: AS THE PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE ANOMALY WILL BREAK OFF AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. THIS ONLY OCCURS BRIEFLY BEFORE IT IS PICKED BACK UP BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PLAGUE THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WILL BE FURTHER EAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SCATTERED SHOWER AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SATURDAY-SUNDAY: THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE FACT THAT THE LOWER PIECE OF THE PV ANOMALY WILL BREAK OFF AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THIS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER KICKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXTREMELY FAVORED BY THE NAM OR LOCAL WRF RUNS...MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED BY THIS TIME...AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DID INCREASE TEMPS A BIT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A TAD WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MONDAY-TUESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER AND DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THIS FORECAST WHICH TRACKS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NE/KS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA...AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION FOR ANY SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODEL VARIATIONS KEEP UNCERTAINTY HIGH AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BILLINGS $$ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 57 40 61 43 / 10 0 10 10 HUTCHINSON 57 36 61 41 / 0 0 10 10 NEWTON 56 38 59 42 / 10 0 10 10 ELDORADO 56 37 59 41 / 10 0 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 57 40 60 43 / 20 10 10 10 RUSSELL 57 31 60 38 / 0 0 10 10 GREAT BEND 56 32 59 37 / 0 0 10 10 SALINA 57 34 60 42 / 0 0 10 10 MCPHERSON 57 37 60 42 / 0 0 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 55 44 56 43 / 30 20 20 10 CHANUTE 55 43 56 44 / 20 20 20 10 IOLA 54 42 57 43 / 20 10 20 10 PARSONS-KPPF 56 43 56 43 / 20 20 20 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
