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000 FXUS63 KICT 192337 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 537 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009 .AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE RETURN MOISTURE STREAMING UP ACROSS EASTERN OK. BASES RUNNING BETWEEN 035-045...BUT SUSPECT THOSE WILL LOWER DURING THE NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI IN SOUTHEAST KS AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT KCNU. WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY BE NEAR/WEST OF KICT AND WILL FLIRT WITH KHUT/KSLN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE IN SOUTHEAST KS...AND WILL KEEP CEILINGS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY THERE. -HOWERTON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/ DISCUSSION... SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY. TONIGHT: MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS STRATOCUMULUS IS STREAMING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN TX INTO EASTERN OK PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PER NAM...GFS AND LOCALLY RUN NAM-WRFARW...THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY VENTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KS BY AROUND 10 PM...AND PERSIST ALL NIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIURNAL COOLING. CONCERNED WITH FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHEAST KS LOW CLOUDS (ROUGHLY THE FLINT HILLS) NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS...DUE TO RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVELS...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. INSERTED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW FOR ALL AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS AND EAST OF LINCOLN TO LYONS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT FINE TUNE THE FORECAST A BIT MORE. DRIER AIR AND MORE MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVER CENTRAL KS...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING OVER SOUTHEAST KS...SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG OVER THESE AREAS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE. EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DUE TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF VERTICAL LIFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY HAS LESS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE COULD BE CUT OFF...BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND TALKING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 60F ON SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL KS EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IN TIME JUST DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. CURRENTLY RUNNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR JUST THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. BEYOND THAT...LOOKS TO BE A NICE WEEK FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. KLEINSASSER/DUNTEN/ELDER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 36 56 38 59 / 0 0 0 10 HUTCHINSON 33 56 36 59 / 0 0 0 10 NEWTON 35 56 37 59 / 0 0 0 10 ELDORADO 37 56 39 59 / 0 0 0 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 40 58 41 60 / 0 10 10 10 RUSSELL 28 55 34 56 / 0 0 0 10 GREAT BEND 29 55 34 59 / 0 0 0 10 SALINA 31 55 36 57 / 0 0 0 10 MCPHERSON 33 56 36 59 / 0 0 0 10 COFFEYVILLE 43 57 41 60 / 10 20 20 20 CHANUTE 41 57 41 60 / 10 20 20 20 IOLA 40 56 41 59 / 10 20 10 20 PARSONS-KPPF 42 57 41 60 / 10 20 20 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
