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000 FXUS63 KICT 200933 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 333 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SYNOPSIS: CURRENTLY THE ELONGATED PV ANOMALY IS APPROACHING THE AREA...AND INDUCING LIFT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. TODAY-TONIGHT: AS THE PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE ANOMALY WILL BREAK OFF AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. THIS ONLY OCCURS BRIEFLY BEFORE IT IS PICKED BACK UP BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PLAGUE THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WILL BE FURTHER EAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SCATTERED SHOWER AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SATURDAY-SUNDAY: THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE FACT THAT THE LOWER PIECE OF THE PV ANOMALY WILL BREAK OFF AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THIS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER KICKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXTREMELY FAVORED BY THE NAM OR LOCAL WRF RUNS...MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED BY THIS TIME...AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DID INCREASE TEMPS A BIT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A TAD WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MONDAY-TUESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER AND DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THIS FORECAST WHICH TRACKS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NE/KS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA...AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION FOR ANY SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODEL VARIATIONS KEEP UNCERTAINTY HIGH AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BILLINGS $$ .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE RETURN MOISTURE STREAMING INTO EASTERN KS. BASES RUNNING BETWEEN 045-055...BUT SUSPECT THOSE WILL LOWER DURING THE NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES. 0000 UTC GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND NORTH AMERICAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE A BIT DRY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE LATTER BETTER WITH CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS. WITH PSEUDO WARM FRONT EVIDENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS WITH HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH...SHOULD HAVE DECENT CHANCE FOR FOG IN SOUTHEAST KS. HAVE INCLUDED SOME IFR FOG AT KCNU NEAR DAYBREAK. SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY IN KCNU WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND VERY RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST KS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...AND WILL KEEP CEILINGS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY THERE. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 57 40 61 43 / 10 0 10 10 HUTCHINSON 57 36 61 41 / 0 0 10 10 NEWTON 55 38 59 42 / 10 0 10 10 ELDORADO 56 37 59 41 / 10 0 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 56 40 60 43 / 10 10 10 10 RUSSELL 56 31 60 38 / 0 0 10 10 GREAT BEND 55 32 59 37 / 0 0 10 10 SALINA 56 34 60 42 / 0 0 10 10 MCPHERSON 57 37 60 42 / 0 0 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 55 44 56 43 / 20 20 20 10 CHANUTE 56 43 56 44 / 20 20 20 10 IOLA 54 42 57 43 / 20 10 20 10 PARSONS-KPPF 56 43 56 43 / 20 20 20 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
