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000 FXUS63 KICT 191750 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1150 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009 .AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TODAY-TONIGHT. THINKING MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO KCNU LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR VSBYS BY LATER TONIGHT. KICT-KHUT WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THESE CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER...FOR KICT-KHUT-KSLN...SOMEWHAT CONCERNED WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO SOMEWHAT MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...ONLY WENT WITH VSBYS AROUND 5-6 SM FOR NOW. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS VENTURE INTO KCNU & VICINITY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ADK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009/ AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE VISIBILITY AT THE CNU TAF SITE THIS MORNING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE VISIBILITY GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. THIS IS DUE MAINLY TO DRYING EFFECTS FROM DEPOSITION WHICH IS HELPING ERODE THE VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IN PLACE...AND DRIER SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. MEANWHILE...AREAS WITHIN THE FOG ADVISORY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CNU TAF SITE SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 15Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WE WILL JUST MENTION VFR CEILINGS...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER THEM INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. COX PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009/ SYNOPSIS... STACKED CUT-OFF MID-UPR LOW CONTINUES NLY TREK OVER MID-MS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...SPINNING OVER IA/IL BORDER AT 2 AM CST. THIS HAS ENABLED WRAP-AROUND STRATOCU TO LIFT NE OF KICT COUNTRY WITH SW PERIPHERY OF LOW CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM NEAR KLWC TO KSGF. HOWEVER...THE CLEARED SKIES HAVE TEAMED WITH HIGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CALM WIND TO INDUCE +FZFG TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF SE KS WHERE 1/4SM VSBYS REPORTED. DISCUSSION... THIS MORNING: OBVIOUSLY THE IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS ON AREAL EXTENT & DURATION OF +FZFG FOR SE KS. MOISTURE LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW. AS SUCH STILL EXPECT THE FZFG TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 9 & 10 AM CST. THIS AFTERNOON: THE 1ST UPSTREAM UPR-DECK TROF APPROACHING THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF CIRROSTRATUS ACROSS KICT COUNTRY AS IT VENTURES E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THE HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON MAXES SO HAVE LEFT INHERITED FORECAST INTACT. THIS WEEKEND: MOST OF KICT COUNTRY MAY EXPECT NICE WEATHER AS THE APPROACHING MID-UPR WAVE WILL HAVE LIMITED FUEL TO WORK WITH. A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF WILL DEVELOP FROM NE TX ACROSS ERN OK TO FAR SW MO FRI MORNING BUT WITH THE RICHER LWR-DECK MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED JUST SE OF KICT COUNTRY OPTED TO KEEP "SILENT" ~10% POPS IN PLACE FOR FAR SE KS FRI & FRI NGT. A 2ND AND MORE ROBUST MID-UPR WAVE IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SURGE E FROM THE ROCKIES SAT AFTERNOON BUT WITH LWR-DECK MOISTURE STILL AT A PREMIUM HAVE OPTED TO TAKE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO POPS BOTH SAT & SAT NGT. NEXT WEEK: A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING MID-UPR DECK WAVE IS SCHEDULED TO SURGE SE OVER THE NRN PLAINS ON MON. THE FEATURE WILL PUSH A PACIFIC "COLD" FRONT SE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY MON AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE FUEL FOR THE APPROACHING SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION. AS SUCH HAVE KEPT INHERITED FORECAST INTACT. EPS AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU SOME FOG FORMING IN SE KS NEAR BACK EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT...WOULD THINK IT WOULD BE RELATIVELY PATCHY GROUND FOG. GIVEN MOISTURE GRADIENT HAVE WENT WITH TEMPO TO 2SM BR AT KCNU NEAR SUNRISE. OTHERWISE SOME CI SPILLING IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KRSL. HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 58 36 56 37 / 0 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 57 35 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 NEWTON 57 36 56 37 / 0 0 0 0 ELDORADO 58 37 56 38 / 0 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 60 38 58 38 / 0 0 0 0 RUSSELL 55 32 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 56 32 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 SALINA 56 34 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 57 35 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 60 41 57 40 / 0 10 20 20 CHANUTE 59 39 57 40 / 0 0 10 10 IOLA 58 38 56 40 / 0 0 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 59 40 57 40 / 0 10 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
