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000 FXUS63 KICT 241136 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 536 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE OUT LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING. COMPACT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NW MO/SW IA WITH A COLD FRONT NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SE KS/EASTERN OK. SOME LOWER CIGS ARE IN PLACE RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DO NOT STRETCH TOO FAR UPSTREAM AS CENTRAL KS HAS ALREADY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT. THEREFORE FEEL THAT KICT WILL HAVE VFR CIGS BY 14Z WITH THESE LOWER CIGS CLEARING OUT OF SE KS BY 16-17Z. DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 800MB WILL ALLOW GUSTY NW WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING-AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE EVENING HOURS APPROACH. LAWSON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/ UPDATE... SENDING UPDATE TO FORECAST FOR LATEST PRECIPITATION TRENDS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY IN OUR EAST-CENTRAL KS COUNTIES. ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER TO SHOW A FASTER CLEARING TREND THIS MORNING IN OUR NWRN HALF. JMC PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES: ENDING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WITH DEPARTING DEVELOPING UPPER LOW...THEN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TODAY-THURSDAY: STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS EARLY THIS AM HAS YET TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW PER WIND PROFILERS/SATELLITE...AND IS A LITTLE BEHIND WHAT THE MODELS HAVE PROGGED. SHORT RANGE MODELS PUSH THIS SYSTEM INTO THE MID MS VLY BY THIS EVE IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM ENERGY MOVING THRU ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG PV ANOMALY WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING IN CNTRL KS. 850 AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TOO WARM WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES IN CENTRAL KS. THEREFORE WILL BE CANCELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL TERMINATE THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE ISSUANCE. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL EXPERIENCE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS. THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-72 HOURS CARVING OUT A DECENT UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL GIVE OUR AREA ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE MISSING OUR AREA TO THE NE-E. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD...BUT THANKSGIVING DAY WILL LIKELY BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE 3 GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS/ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FRIDAY-MONDAY: UPPER TROFFING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER KS. NEAR FULL SUNSHINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH LEE TROFFING SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES FRIDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROF AS IT MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS ACROSS THE PLAINS SUN-TUES IS OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF WERE PROGGING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER TROF COMES ACROSS...BUT DIFFER GREATLY IN THE DETAILS. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH SIMILARITY TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON MONDAY. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. JMC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 52 31 52 28 / 10 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 51 29 51 27 / 10 0 0 0 NEWTON 50 29 50 28 / 10 0 0 0 ELDORADO 51 31 51 29 / 10 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 53 31 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 RUSSELL 49 27 49 25 / 0 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 49 27 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 SALINA 49 31 51 29 / 10 0 10 0 MCPHERSON 49 29 50 28 / 10 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 53 32 53 30 / 10 0 0 0 CHANUTE 52 31 51 28 / 20 10 0 0 IOLA 52 32 51 28 / 30 10 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 53 32 52 29 / 10 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
