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000 FXUS63 KICT 190815 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 215 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009 .UPDATE... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE DENSE FREEZING FOG BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS FOG IS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF THE VFR CLOUD DECK DEPARTING NORTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS ALSO SHOWING AFTER THESE CLOUDS DEPARTED THAT IT LEFT OVER SOME SHALLOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH IDEAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING OFF ACROSS THIS AREA WHICH MEANS IT COULD END BEING VERY SHALLOW DENSE FOG DUE TO SUCH A STRONG INVERSION. IN FACT...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 1/8TH OF A MILE AT TIMES. AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER DECOUPLING WILL BE IN PLACE. COX && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009/ AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU SOME FOG FORMING IN SE KS NEAR BACK EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT...WOULD THINK IT WOULD BE RELATIVELY PATCHY GROUND FOG. GIVEN MOISTURE GRADIENT HAVE WENT WITH TEMPO TO 2SM BR AT KCNU NEAR SUNRISE. OTHERWISE SOME CI SPILLING IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KRSL. -HOWERTON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009/ AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. 6KFT CEILINGS AT KCNU SHOULD EXIT IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THU MORNING...THEN BECOME LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH KRSL LATE IN THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SOME CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. -HOWERTON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGES...SUBTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PESKY CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY GET KICKED NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WITHIN UPSTREAM LEAD TROF MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL LIKEWISE VACATE FAR EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN MOST AREAS BELOW FREEZING. THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITHIN THE APPROACHING TROF COULD HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT ON THE AREA WEATHER ON FRIDAY...AS MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. MODEST LIFT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SMALL CHANCES THERE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A BLUSTERY AND MILDER DAY IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST IN A PARADE OF MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROFS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. MAXS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE MID NOVEMBER CLIMO AROUND 60F IN MOST LOCALES. THIS LEAD TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PUSHING A RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN KANSAS. AGAIN SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER NORTH THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR INTO SUNDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE STRONGER UPSTREAM TROF WHICH DIVES ACROSS THE WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER/SLOWER WITH ITS CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS SEEMED TO WAFFLE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND ITS MOST RECENT/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. FOR NOW HAVE MADE ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH POP CHANCES FOR NOW CENTERED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO DOUBT FURTHER REFINEMENTS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO COME. DARMOFAL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 36 56 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 35 56 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 NEWTON 36 56 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 ELDORADO 37 56 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 38 58 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 RUSSELL 32 55 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 32 55 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 SALINA 34 55 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 35 56 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 41 57 40 59 / 10 20 20 0 CHANUTE 39 57 40 58 / 0 10 10 0 IOLA 38 56 40 58 / 0 10 10 0 PARSONS-KPPF 40 57 40 58 / 10 10 10 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ053- 070>072-095-096. && $$
