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000 FXUS63 KICT 232342 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 542 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TONIGHT...AS LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS...WITH COLDER AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING UP AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. THE LOW CIGS AND STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND STRONG WRAPPED UP SURFACE SYSTEM. JAKUB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/ DISCUSSION... TONIGHT: VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE HEADLINES. LOCAL WRF SIMILAR TO GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL BUT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BIT BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE. VERY RESPECTABLE WAVE TAKING SHAPE TO THE WEST WHICH WILL JUST GRAZE NORTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. 1200 UTC RAOBS WERE EXCEEDINGLY DRY BELOW 500MB AT AMA/OUN/FORWARD BUT REGIONAL RADAR SUGGEST LIFT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THIS. BELIEVE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY CLOSELY TIED TO THE BEST LIFT. WRF SUGGEST THIS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND 02-03 UTC AND TRACK ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KS DURING THE NIGHT. LAPSE RATES IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE ARE A BIT BETTER /LESS STABLE/ THAN THE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE. ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR MEDIUM TO LARGE FLAKES...BUT ONSET MAY BE SLIGHTLY RETARDED FROM EVAPORATION. COMBO OF PRECIPITATION RATE AND DRY AIR SHOULD WET BULB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH WRF/NESTED GRID MODEL CRANKING OUT OVER HALF INCH OF LIQUID...EVEN ACCOUNTING FOR MELTING AND EVAPORATION...COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT LOW END ADVISORY FOR RAPID ACCUMULATION OF LARGE/WET FLAKES. AND ALL MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF BOTH EXTENT AND DURATION OF WINDS/SNOW WILL PLAY AREAS CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW AND ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO ADJUST AS NEEDED. NOT AS SURE ABOUT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD MUCH SOUTH/EAST OF ICT GIVEN DRY AIR BUT WILL SPREAD MINIMAL CHANCE FOR CONSISTENCY FOR NOW. TUE-WED: WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHIFT. OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA. THU-MON: FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS...RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH GRADIENT WARMING TREND AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH UPPER PATTERN...HOWEVER SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL IMPACT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION...IF ANY. APPEARS THERE COULD BE A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS VERY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. TIMING COULD PUSH THIS EITHER WAY...BUT FOR NOW LIMITED THREAT TO THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF 06-18 UTC SUN. COOLER AIR SHOULD SPILL INTO THE AREA ON MON. LATEST RUNS HAVE TRENDED SIGNFICANTLY COOLER...BUT FOR NOW JUST STARTED THE DOWNHILL SLIDE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 40 51 32 52 / 20 10 0 0 HUTCHINSON 38 50 30 51 / 60 20 0 0 NEWTON 38 49 29 50 / 40 20 0 0 ELDORADO 39 50 31 51 / 20 20 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 41 52 31 53 / 20 0 0 0 RUSSELL 34 48 27 49 / 80 20 0 0 GREAT BEND 34 48 27 50 / 80 10 0 0 SALINA 38 50 32 51 / 80 30 0 0 MCPHERSON 38 50 30 50 / 70 20 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 43 53 35 55 / 20 10 0 0 CHANUTE 40 51 34 52 / 20 20 10 0 IOLA 39 51 34 51 / 20 20 10 0 PARSONS-KPPF 42 52 33 53 / 20 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ047>051-067-082-091. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033. && $$
