National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Drought Report for Central and Southeast Illinois

Final Update:  2/7/2013

By:  Chris Geelhart, Meteorologist 

Heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches fell northwest of the Illinois River early last week.  The warm weather that occurred around that time thawed out the soil enough to allow this rain to soak into the ground.  The February 5 issuance of the U.S. Drought Monitor indicated that this was enough to eliminate the moderate drought conditions that had been persisting over the area, however the region was still classified as "abnormally dry" due to the long term precipitation deficits.

Specific categories are as follows:

D4 (Exceptional Drought) -- No counties are considered to be in exceptional drought.

D3 (Extreme Drought) -- No counties are considered to be in extreme drought.

D2 (Severe Drought) -- No counties are considered to be in severe drought.

D1 (Moderate Drought) -- No counties are considered to be in moderate drought.

D0 (Abnormally Dry) -- Fulton, Knox, Marshall, Peoria, Schuyler, and Stark counties.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between a number of agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture, state climatologists, and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can found at the web site:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Note: Drought categories are based onbroad-scale indicators over "climate districts" (the gray division lines on the U.S. map above). The Illinois map attempts to delineate the drought categories on a more regionalized map. Small-scale factors, such as localized heavy rain from thunderstorms, may affect the drought level over a small area, which may not necessarily be reflected in the maps above.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops, pastures; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.

The latest seasonal drought outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is available at the following web site:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
expert_assessment/
seasonal_drought.html

Specific impacts from the drought are available on the Drought Impact Reporter at:

http://droughtreporter.unl.edu

No impacts are currently being reported in areas northwest of the Illinois River.

Information from the Illinois Drought Response Task Force is available at:

http://www.drought.illinois.gov

Soil Moisture:

Analysis of soil moisture from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center was not available.

Additional soil moisture maps are available at the MRCC's Drought Information Page:
http://mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/
cliwatch/drought/drought.jsp

the CPC's Crop Moisture Index page:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
products/analysis_monitoring/
regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

the University of Washington's Experimental Surface Water Monitor page:
http://www.hydro.washington.edu/
forecast/monitor/index.shtml

and the NLADS Drought Monitor page:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/
mmb/nldas/drought/

Precipitation during the last 2 weeks ranged from 2 to 3 inches over a large part of central Illinois, although totals so far this month have only been about a tenth inch or less in most areas.  For the year to date, precipitation is running 1 to 2 inches above normal.

The NWS in Lincoln generates maps each day of observed temperatures and rainfall. These can be accessed on our page by clicking on the "Temp/Precip Maps" option under Climate on the left menu bar, or click here.

An interactive precipitation analysis is available from NWS Headquarters at:
http://water.weather.gov/precip

Additional climate maps and statistics are available at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center's (MRCC) Midwest Climate Watch page:
http://mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/
cliwatch/watch.htm

as well as the Illinois State Climatologist webpage at http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/
statecli/Current/current.htm

River and Stream Flow Conditions:

Stream flows conditions remain near normal after the heavy rain of last week.

The following data was measured Thursday, February 7.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/
index.php?wfo=ilx

Additional Current stream and river stages may be viewed at the following USGS Web Site:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/

Precipitation over the next 7 days is expected to range from 1 to 1.5 inches over a large part of central Illinois.  This will mainly occur today (February 7) and Sunday (February 10).  Much of this should be able to soak into the ground, as no substantial cold weather is expected during the period.   

The 8-14 day outlook, for the period of February 14-20, favors above below temperatures, and near normal precipitation. 

The long range outlook for the spring months (March through May) favors above normal temperatures, and above normal precipitation. 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
qpf/day1-5.shtml

For updated temperature and precipitation probabilities consult the following Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Sites:

8 to 14 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
/products/predictions/814day/

30 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
/products/predictions/30day/

90 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
/products/predictions/long_range
/seasonal.php?lead=02

If you have any questions or comments about this page, please contact:

Chris Geelhart
National Weather Service
1362 State Route 10
Lincoln, IL  62656

E-mail:  chris.geelhart@noaa.gov