000
FGUS73 KGLD 092111
ESFGLD
COC017-063-125-KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-
203-NEC057-087-145-111200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
211 PM MST FRI MARCH 9 2007

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS OUTLOOK USES THE TERM GOODLAND SERVICE AREA TO REFER TO MAJOR
RIVERS LOCATED
  - IN YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO
  - IN DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA
  - IN 13 NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES WHOSE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARIES
      ARE DELINEATED BY GREELEY...WICHITA...LOGAN...GOVE...
      GRAHAM...AND NORTON COUNTIES.
THESE RIVER SYSTEMS INCLUDE
  - THE NORTH AND SOUTH FORKS OF THE REPUBLICAN RIVER
  - THE REPUBLICAN RIVER
  - BEAVER...SAPPA AND PRAIRIE DOG CREEKS
  - SOUTH AND NORTH FORKS OF THE SOLOMON RIVER
  - THE SALINE AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 9... 2007 THROUGH MARCH 23... 2007.

OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED
NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE...
SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED.
OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. THUS...IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL...THEN
ACTUAL CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FLOOD EVENTS IN THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS
OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION...OR LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION.

DAILY TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS DURING THE PREVIOUS TWO WEEKS HAVE
MELTED/SUBLIMATED SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF THE WINTER SNOWPACK.
THOUGH STANDING WATER PREVAILS OVER SOME SLIGHTLY-SLOPED FIELDS...
THE DIURNAL THAWING/FREEZING TEMPERATURE CYCLES HAVE ALLOWED A
SLOW... STEADY MELT...AND EXCELLENT PERCOLATION OF THIS MELT INTO
THE SOIL PROFILE.  THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IS BEST CHARACTERIZED AS
HAVING A SNOWCONE-LIKE CONSISTENCY.

DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN YUMA COUNTY OF EASTERN COLORADO...AND
DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
HAVE IMPROVED DURING THE PREVIOUS TWO WEEKS...FROM MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO ABNORMALLY DRY.  VIRTUALLY ALL OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
APPEARS TO BE DROUGHT FREE AT THIS TIME...AND SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA ARE GENERALLY AMPLE TO WET.

WATER LEVELS AT MOST AREA RESERVOIRS REMAIN LOW...THOUGH IMPROVING
SLIGHTLY. WATER LEVELS RANGE BETWEEN 27 TO 42 PERCENT OF
CONSERVATION POOL CAPACITIES AT BONNY RESERVOIR IN EASTERN
COLORADO...KEITH SEBELIUS LAKE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND ENDERS...
SWANSON AND HUGH BUTLER RESERVOIRS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  THE LONE
STANDOUT REMAINS HARRY STRUNK RESERVOIR WHICH FEEDS MEDICINE CREEK
IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ITS CURRENT CONSERVATION POOL IS AT 96
PERCENT OF CAPACITY.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 15-21 INDICATES HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

GIVEN THE AMBIENT SNOWPACK CONDITIONS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND WET SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...A SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING IS DESIGNATED FOR THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL AT ANY TIME ON THE CURRENT SNOWPACK COULD
PRODUCE RAPIDLY ELEVATED FLOWS. FOR YUMA... KIT CARSON... AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF EASTERN COLORADO... AND DUNDY... HITCHCOCK...
AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA... ...THE RISK OF
SPRING FLOODING IS DEEMED AVERAGE.

THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
TO BE ISSUED FOR 2007. VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GLD
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

SLOAN/MENTZER