The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has included parts of the central and southern Plains in a moderate to high risk area this afternoon and evening, for severe thunderstorms.
Strong upper level jet stream winds will nose into Nebraska and Kansas today. Rapid intensification of a surface low will occur this afternoon in northeast Colorado. A warm front will extend from extreme southwest Nebraska into north central Kansas late this afternoon, which will lift north this evening. Meanwhile, a dry line will extend across northwest Kansas which will sweep northeast late this afternoon and evening. Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of the warm front and dry line and track northeast. Very large hail and isolated strong tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening.
A moderate risk area extends east of a line generally from Stockville through Sutherland, Mullen, and Valentine. Just to the east, a high risk area extends generally east of a line from Callaway through Brewster and O'neill. Areas in the moderate and high risk will be most at risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated strong tornadoes. Areas to the west in a slight risk are also at risk for severe weather into this evening.
Increasing low level winds will remain backed to the southeat today across western and north central Nebraska, allowing gulf moisture to be drawn into the area. As a dry line bulges outward along with the lifting warm front this afternoon into this evening - an increasingly unstable airmass will help fire off the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak across the region.
Please stay tuned to your local media or NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio for updated information as this event unfolds.