Drought Conditions

Missouri Drought Monitor

Illinois Drought Monitor

Additional Precipitation Needed.

Soil Moisture Storage Percentile.

Missouri River Flow Conditions

Illinois River Flow Conditions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index

Normal Composite of 500mb Heights

2012 500mb Anomoly

Drought Briefing Page
Updated: 3/8/2013

Next Scheduled Update: TBD

Summary:

For the first time in nearly 9 months, all of our County Warning Area (CWA) is now free of D2/severe drought. This has transpired due to above to well above normal precipitation since the start of 2013. Most locations since January 1st are one to three inches above normal regarding total precipitation. Our three official climate stations (St. Louis and Columbia, MO and Quincy, IL) are running around 1.50" above normal. Recent heavy snowstorms over central and northeast Missouri has been enough to finally vanquish the D2/severe drought over these areas due to snowmelt. This aforementioned snowmelt has led to rises in rivers and streams due to runoff as well as abnormally moist soil moisture conditions due to the infiltration of water from snowmelt.

***NOTE: Due to the considerable improvement observed in drought conditions over the past several weeks, this webpage along with the official drought statements (DGTLSX) will not be updated unless conditions again warrant.***

The main reason for the lack of rainfall and the above normal temperatures from early May through late August of 2012 was a persistent area of high pressure over the central United States. The figure below on the left was the average 500mb geopotential height map from from May 1st-July 15th, 2012 which depicts a ridge of high pressure about 20,000 feet above sea level centered over the Plains. The image to it's right is the 500mb height anomaly which depicts that these heights were above normal during this period across much of the country. This pattern did not favor the normal progression of storm systems moving across Missouri and Illinois that would have brought the rainfall that we typically see during the spring and early summer. This pattern also favoed the excessively hot weather and really brought a rapid-onset or "flash" drought.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between a number of federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can found at the web site:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

The categories of drought are defined as follows:

Abnormally Dry (D0) - Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops, pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.

Soil Moisture Conditions:

According to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a large majority of Missouri and Illinois are observing soil moisture above to well above normal due to the last few weeks of heavy precipitation combined with snowmelt.

Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) at:

http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/cliwatch/
drought/drought.jsp

River and Stream Flow Conditions:

WHILE THERE WAS SEVERAL DAYS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION THIS PAST WEEK...THIS FIRST WEEK OF MARCH WAS STILL A WEEK OF BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS...RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE MEDIAN STREAMFLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TRIBUTARIES WERE MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE...BUT THESE AREAS HAVE ABUNDANT SNOW AND ICE COVER THAN IS LIKELY TO MELT IN THE COMING WEEKS. THIS WILL ADD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER TO SOILS AND LIKELY RAISE STREAMFLOWS IN THESE
AREAS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOUT A HALF FOOT IN THE PAST WEEK AT JEFFERSON CITY...WITH LESSER RISES DOWNSTREAM. WHILE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT RISE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS DOES NOT
ACCOUNT FOR A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER BASIN.

ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST. LOUIS...THE STAGE HAD DROPPED ABOUT 3 FEET IN THE PAST WEEK...BUT IS FORECAST TO RISE AT LEAST 7 FEET NEXT WEEK. THIS RISE DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR THIS WEEKEND`S STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD PROVIDE BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE BASIN. ALTHOUGH THE STAGE THURSDAY MORNING HAD DROPPED TO 0.1 FEET...THE RIVER SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS
LEVEL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS HAS COMPLETED CONTRACTUAL CHANNEL WIDENING WORK THIS WEEK ON SUBMERGED ROCK FORMATIONS NEAR GRAND TOWER ILLINOIS AND NEAR THEBES ILLINOIS....PROVIDING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CHANNEL DEPTH AND WIDTH IN THESE
AREAS.

ON OTHER NAVIGABLE RIVERS...THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT MEREDOSIA HAS RISEN ABOUT A FOOT IN THE PAST WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A RISE OF ANOTHER 3 FEET IN THE NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE ILLINOIS RIVER
SEVERAL FEET ABOVE NAVIGATIONAL CONCERNS. ON THE KASKASKIA RIVER...CARLYLE DAM IS RELEASING ABOUT 6000 CFS...JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. OVERALL...NAVIGATION SHOULD NOT ENCOUNTER LOW WATER PROBLEMS IN THE ST. LOUIS SERVICE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.

Hourly and forecast river stages out to 90 days can be found at the National Weather Service's (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) web page:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx

Additional Current stream and river stages may be viewed at the following USGS Web Site:

http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/

Fire Danger Hazards:

The current KBDI: Eastern Missouri and Southern Illinois: LOW

A significant fire weather threat is low because of the recent heavy precipitation events and snowmelt over central and northeast Missouri in addition to west-central Illinois.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential.

KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found on the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) web site at: http://www.wfas.us

Agricultural Impacts:

There has been little or no change in agriculutural impacts because of the end of the growing season. Also, there is little evaporation this time of year because of the short, cold days.

Additional information on agriculture impacts may be viewed at the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service NASS Web Site:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications
/State_Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.asp

As well as the Drought Impact Reporter Web Site:

http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/

Precipitation/Temperature Outlooks:

Below are the temperature and precipitation outlooks for the next 6-10 days, the one month outlook, and the seasonal outlook (3 months) from the Climate Precipitation Center. In addition, the drought outlook through the month of April is at the bottom, suggesting some improvement in drought conditions are likely over a majority of central and eastern Missouri. Near normal temperatures and below normal precipitation are more likely according to the latest 6-10 day outlook from CPC.

	Precipitation	Temperature
6-10 Day Outlook
One Month Outlook
Three Month Outlook
Drought Outlook

For updated temperature and precipitation probabilities consult the following Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Sites:

8 to 14 Day Outlook

30 Day Outlook

90 Day Outlook

Questions or Comments:
If you have any questions or comments about this information please contact:

Mark Britt (Climate Services Focal Point ), Jayson Gosselin (Meteorologist) or Mark Fuchs (Service Hydrologist)

National Weather Service - St. Louis
12 Missouri Park Drive
St. Charles, MO 63304
(636) 441-8467
w-lsx.webmaster@noaa.gov

Our most recent Drought Information Statement (DGTLSX) which is updated typically each week on Thursday/Friday is
available at: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php? site=LSX&product=DGT&issuedby=LSX

Other Contacts:

For state climate impacts:
http://www.stateclimate.org/

Missouri State Climatologist:
http://climate.missouri.edu

Illinois State Climatologist:
http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli/

Acknowledgements:
The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA’s national weather service and national climatic data center, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the national drought mitigation center. Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, cooperative and volunteer observations, USDAFS, the USDA and USGS.

Related Websites :

NWS - http://www.weather.gov/lsx

CPC - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

U.S. Drought Portal:
http://www.drought.gov

USGS - http://water.usgs.gov/

COE - http://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/

Missouri DNR Drought Page:
http://www.dnr.mo.gov/env/wrc/droughtupdate.htm

Illinois Water Survey Drought Pages:
http://www.isws.illinois.edu/hilites/drought/

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office