Missouri Drought Monitor
Illinois Drought Monitor
Additional Precipitation Needed.
Soil Moisture Storage Percentile.
Missouri River Flow Conditions
Illinois River Flow Conditions
Keetch-Byram Drought Index
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Accumulated Precipitation at Quincy, Illinois
Composite 500mb Chart 3/1-5/31
Composite 500mb Chart 6/1-8/31

Drought Briefing Page
Updated: 11/7/2013

This page will not be updated unless drought conditions deteriorate.

Missouri Drought
illinois Drought
 

Summary: 

Drought conditions have improved over the past week; dramatically in some areas.  Most of the region received one to three inches of rain since about Halloween.  The exception was the St. Louis metro which generally recorded the least amount of rain with amounts only on the order of three quarters of an inch to one inch.  The severe/D2 drought designation over north-central and northeastern Missouri has now improved to moderate drought because of the beneficial rains since last week.  Therefore, this drought information page is not scheduled to be updated unless drought conditions deteriorate once again.

 

2013 SUMMER/FALL

RAINFALL STATISTICS

 

         6/1-11/5   6/1-11/5      8/1-11/5    8/1-11/5

Station ID

Station Name

  Total Rainfall   Departure   Total Rainfall   Departure
           
Illinois          
KCPS Cahokia Parks ARPT 12.81 -5.33                     4.65 -5.73
KBLV Scott AFB 20.55 1.58 5.84 -4.82
GRVI2 Greenville 20.69 3.44 6.07 -3.57
HGHI2 Highland 19.12 -0.14 4.80 -6.36
KUIN Quincy ARPT 7.91 -10.66 5.04 -5.40
SLOI2 Salem 21.93 2.75 6.99 -3.99
           
Missouri          
CANM7 Canton 10.61 -9.48 5.77 -5.61
CLKM7 Clarksville 13.40 -5.16 7.24 -3.13
KCOU Columbia ARPT 12.08 -8.81 7.58 -4.47
UMCM7 University of Missouri 14.14 -8.39 8.76 -3.97
FESM7 Festus 13.33 -6.11 4.04 -6.82
FTNM7 Fulton 14.23 -8.70 6.68 -6.23
KJEF Jefferson City ARPT 14.83 -6.97 8.00 -4.64
HRNM7 Hermann 16.90 -2.32 5.55 -5.68
MNCM7 Monroe City 14.89 -5.54 8.01 -3.55
RSEM7 Rosebud 13.61 -6.66 4.85 -7.07
SLLM7 Sullivan 19.60 -0.47 6.10 -5.64
VNDM7 Vandalia 14.46 -6.36 5.75 -5.38
KLSX WFO LSX 12.91 -7.10 4.86 -6.27
KSTL Lambert 15.64 -2.72 6.39 -3.66

 

The graph on the left shows how the precipitation has fallen through the year at the Quincy Regional Airport through the end of August.  While there was little rain and snow the first four weeks of January, the winter began to get active and the observed precipitation line (green) climbed above the normal (brown) line.  The very active pattern continued through the late winter and spring.  The middle map is the average 500 millibar geopotential height map from March 1st to May 31st which depicts a mean trough of low pressure over the Midwest.  This map depicts how air flows from west to east about 18,000 feet above the earth's surface.  This pattern was favorable for mulitple storm systems to move through Missouri and Illinois producing above normal precipitation.  The map on the right is the average 500 millibar geopotential height map from June 1st to August 31st which shows that the trough had weakend and moved eastward at the same time a large ridge of high pressure built over the western United States .  This pattern was not conducive to thunderstorm development, particularly over northern Missouri and central Illinois. 

Quincy Rainfall
500mb Anomoly
500mb Anomoly
Quincy, Illinois Precipitation 500 mb Composite 3/1-5/31 500 mb Composite 6/1-8/31

 

 

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between a number of federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can found at the web site:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

The categories of drought are defined as follows:

Abnormally Dry (D0) - Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops, pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.

Soil Moisture Conditions:

Total Moisture Storage

 

According to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, most of the area is now near normal in terms of soil moisture due to the past week's beneficial rainfall.  Soil moisture remains below normal in and around the St. Louis metro area however with only 10-30% of normal soil moisture currently...yet even this area has improved a bit since last week. 

Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) at:

http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/cliwatch/
drought/drought.jsp

River and Stream Flow Conditions:

Missouri Water

Illinois Water

 

FROM A RIVER AND LOCAL STREAM PERSPECTIVE...THE ONLY AREA WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE FLOWS IS STILL IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...BUT THIS AREA IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AND INCONSISTENT. WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST SEVEN TO TEN DAYS...SEVERAL OF THESE STREAMS HAVE EXPERIENCED INCREASES OVER THE PAST WEEK...BUT A FEW OTHERS HAVE NOT INCREASED...OR EVEN HAVE LESS FLOW THAN A WEEK AGO. THE STREAMS WITH THE LOWEST FLOWS INCLUDED THE ELK FORK SALT RIVER NEAR MADISON MISSOURI WITH A FLOW IN THE 17TH PERCENTILE...THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR WITH A FLOW ALSO IN THE 17TH PERCENTILE...LITTLE CROOKED CREEK NEAR NEW MINDEN ILLINOIS WITH A FLOW IN THE 18TH PERCENTILE...AND THE KASKASKIA RIVER AT VANDALIA WITH A FLOW IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE. MOST OTHER STREAMFLOWS WERE NEAR OR ABOVE THE MEDIAN STREAMFLOW FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...LEVELS HAVE RISEN ONE TO TWO FEET IN THE PAST WEEK. WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR THE RIVER TO STEADILY FALL...BUT STAY ABOVE LEVELS FROM LAST WEEK. WHILE THESE CURRENT LEVELS ARE WELL WITHIN BANK...THESE LEVELS ARE ALSO WELL ABOVE ANY NAVIGATIONAL CONCERNS. 

ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST. LOUIS...THE STAGE HAS RISEN ABOUT A FOOT IN THE PAST WEEK. WITH LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK...ST. LOUIS STAGES SHOULD RISE ABOUT A FOOT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT RETURN TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY NEXT WEEK.

ON OTHER NAVIGABLE RIVERS...THE ILLINOIS RIVER HAS RISEN LESS THAN A FOOT IN THE PAST WEEK...BUT SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR LAST WEEK'S LEVELS IN THE NEXT WEEK. BARGE TONNAGE RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER AS THE CHANNEL REMAINS WELL ABOVE WHERE NAVIGATION CONCERNS MATERIALIZE. THE KASKASKIA RIVER ALSO REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NAVIGATION...AS LEVELS AT NEW ATHENS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST WEEK WHILE FLOWS AT CARLYLE DAM HAVE REMAINED NEAR 100 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND.

Hourly and forecast river stages out to 90 days can be found at the National Weather Service's (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) web page:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx

Additional Current stream and river stages may be viewed at the following USGS Web Site:

http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/

Fire Danger Hazards:

The current KBDI:  Eastern Missouri and Southern Illinois: LOW

KDBI
 

The current KBDI across a vast majority of the area is now low due to recent rainfall since last week.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential.

KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found on the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) web site at: http://www.wfas.us

Agricultural Impacts:

The dry weather over the past three months has deteriorated crop conditons over the past several weeks.  In Missouri, both the corn and soybean crops has been nearly completely harvested. Pasture conditions across the state have improved greatly over the past week with now only 20% of the fields reported in at poor condition or worse.  For Illinois, both the corn and soybean crop was also nearly completely harvested.  Field conditions in Illinois have improved a bit since last week with 26% of the pasture conditions rated in either poor or very poor condition.

Additional information on agriculture impacts may be viewed at the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service NASS Web Site:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications
/State_Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.asp

As well as the Drought Impact Reporter Web Site:

http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/

Precipitation/Temperature Outlooks:

Below are the temperature and precipitation outlooks for the next 6-10 days, the one month outlook, and the seasonal outlook (3 months) from the Climate Precipitation Center (CPC).   In addition, the drought outlook through the month of November is at the bottom, suggesting that the current drought is likely to improve or completely diminish.  Above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation are more likely according to the latest 6-10 day outlook from CPC.

 

Precipitation

Temperature

6-10 Day Outlook

precip
precip

One Month Outlook

precip
precip

Three Month Outlook

precip
precip
Monthly Drought Outlook
drought
 

For updated temperature and precipitation probabilities consult the following Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Sites:

8 to 14 Day Outlook

30 Day Outlook

90 Day Outlook

Questions or Comments:
If you have any questions or comments about this information please contact:

Mark Britt (Climate Services Focal Point ), Jayson Gosselin (Meteorologist) or Mark Fuchs (Service Hydrologist)

National Weather Service - St. Louis
12 Missouri Park Drive
St. Charles, MO  63304
(636) 441-8467
w-lsx.webmaster@noaa.gov

Our most recent Drought Information Statement (DGTLSX) which is updated typically each week on Thursday/Friday is
available at:  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php? site=LSX&product=DGT&issuedby=LSX 

Other Contacts:

For state climate impacts:
http://www.stateclimate.org/

Missouri State Climatologist:
http://climate.missouri.edu

Illinois State Climatologist:
http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli/

 

Acknowledgements:
The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA’s national weather service and national climatic data center, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the national drought mitigation center. Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, cooperative and volunteer observations, USDAFS, the USDA and USGS.

 

 

 

Related Websites :

NWS - http://www.weather.gov/lsx

CPC - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

U.S. Drought Portal:
http://www.drought.gov

USGS - http://water.usgs.gov/

COE - http://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/

Missouri DNR Drought Page:
http://www.dnr.mo.gov/env/wrc/droughtupdate.htm

Illinois Water Survey Drought Pages:
http://www.isws.illinois.edu/hilites/drought/


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