National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND FORECAST

UPDATED OCTOBER 15, 2006 

According to the latest assessment from the U.S. Drought Monitor, moderate drought conditions continue over most of northeast, central, and northeast Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.  The remainder of the area is described as abnormally dry. 

Rainfall since the start of the year and the start of meteorological summer (June 1st) has varied widely across the region.  The driest conditions this year so far have been over parts of central and east central Missouri and adjacent parts of southwest Illinois where some locations have received less than 50% of normal rainfall.

Local Precipitation Totals for 2006:

Below is a list of observed precipitation including the difference from and percentage of normal for selected sites in Missouri and Illinois. The list includes information from local airports and cooperative observers.  This information is current through October 12th. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between a number of federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can found at the web site:

http://www.drought.unl.edu/
dm/monitor.html

The categories of drought are defined as follows:

Abnormally Dry (D0) - Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops, pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.

Additional information about soil moisture conditions can be found at the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Site at:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
products/soilmst/w.html

or at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) at:

http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/
cliwatch/drought/moisture.htm

Very little rainfall has fallen across the region during the past 2 weeks. This has allowed streamflow conditions to further deteriorate, with the greatest impacts on some of the smaller rivers and streams. River gauges along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers are running between 10 and 24 percent of normal flow for this time of the year. The Big and Meramec Rivers are running below 10 percent of normal flow. 

Hourly and forecast river stages out to 90 days can be found at the National Weather Service's (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) web page:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx

Additional Current stream and river stages may be viewed at the following USGS Web Site:

http://water.usgs.gov/
waterwatch/

The USDA issued its latest weekly crop report for Missouri on October 1st. this report indicated the topsoil moisture supply 25% very short, 37% short, 33% adequate, and 5% surplus. Statewide, this represents an overall deterioration in topsoil conditions, with the most severe conditions existing across west central Missouri where 100% of the topsoil was reported in the short to very short category. Subsoil moisture supplies also continue to be poor with the worst conditions across central and southwest Missouri where 80% to 100% of the subsoil moisture supply was rated as short to very short. Extended average to above average precipitation will be needed through the winter months across this area to begin to alleviate this growing soil moisture deficit.  

The corn crop is now 71% harvested, with the greatest progress made across southern and central Missouri where harvesting is nearly complete. Nearly half of the soybean crop has now matured, with harvesting just beginning. Additional rainfall will have little effect on the soybean crop condition, and heavy rainfall would only negatively affect the harvest with the possibility of pods dropping beans with any excessive long lasting rainfall. The drought conditions are continuing significantly affect livestock across the area as well.  

Pasture conditions continued to be rated at nearly 60% poor to very poor with reduced green acreage available for livestock herds. The worst hit areas are in west central, central, and southwest Missouri where nearly 80% of pastures are rated as poor or very poor. Stock water supplies also continue to suffer with the drought conditions. statewide, stock water supplies are rated as 57% short or very short, with the worst conditions across west central Missouri where 85% of the stock water supplies short or very short. Additional beneficial rainfall will be needed this month in order to replenish stock water, before heading into the normally drier winter months.

For additional information on agriculture impacts may be viewed at the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service NASS Web Site:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications
/State_Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.asp

The current KDBI:
Eastern Missouri and Western Illinois: moderate

1000-hour dead fuel moisture values are reported between 16 and 20 percent for much of Missouri and west-central Illinois. 100-hour dead fuel moisture values were reported between 11 and 15 percent.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential. The KDBI is broken into four categories which indicate the susceptibility of ground fuels to fire danger. Below are the four categories and a brief description of each.

KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found on the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) web site at:

http://www.wfas.us

For updated temperature and precipitation probabilities consult the following Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Sites:

8 to 14 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
products/predictions/814day/

30 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
/products/predictions/30day/

90 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ products/predictions/
long_range/lead01/
off_index.html

If you have any questions or comments about this information please contact:

Mark Britt
Climate Services Focal Point
National Weather Service-St. Louis, Missouri
mark.britt@noaa.gov

Other Contacts:

For state climate impacts:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/aasc.html

The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA’s national weather service and national climatic data center, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the national drought mitigation center. Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, cooperative and volunteer observations, USDAFS, the USDA and USGS.

Related Websites :

NWS - http://www.weather.gov/lsx

CPC - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Drought Monitor - http://http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/index.html

USGS - http://water.usgs.gov/

COE - http:// www.mvr.usace.army.mil/