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Spring Flood Outlook |
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Snow Water Equivalent Streamflow Analysis 180 Day Rainfall Departure Palmer Drought Index Current Soil Moisture 3 Month Temp Outlook 3 Month Precip Outlook |
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2... ...MINOR SPRING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER... ...MOST TRIBUTARIES HAVE AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD CHANCES THIS SPRING... THIS OUTLOOK USES THE TERM ST. LOUIS SERVICE AREA TO REFER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM ABOVE CANTON MISSOURI TO ABOVE CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI...THE MISSOURI RIVER ABOVE JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ILLINOIS RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM BEARDSTOWN ILLINOIS TO ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND FOR TRIBUTARY RIVERS IN EASTERN MISSOURI...AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. AS OF EARLY MARCH 2013...THERE WAS NO FLOODING ANYWHERE WITHIN THE ST. LOUIS SERVICE AREA...SO THE PROBABILITIES WITHIN THIS OUTLOOK ARE NOT SKEWED BY ANY ONGOING FLOODING. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON CURRENT STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...UPSTREAM SNOWPACK IN THE MISSISSIPPI...MISSOURI...AND ILLINOIS RIVER BASINS...AND FORECAST RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS TO THREE MONTHS. MORE THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING OVER THE AREA. THERE ARE NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES FOR FLOODING ALONG MOST OF THE RIVERS IN THE ST. LOUIS SERVICE AREA OVER THE NEXT 90 DAYS. THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING ARE ALONG ALL RIVERS IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...THANKS PRIMARILY TO THE PRE-EXISTING SNOW AND ICE PACK ON THE GROUND IN THIS AREA. AS OF WEDNESDAY...MARCH 6TH...THIS SNOW AND ICE PACK CONTAINED ANYWHERE FROM 1.6 TO 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...OR THE AMOUNT OF WATER THE SNOW AND ICE PACK REPRESENTED WHEN MELTED DOWN. THIS SNOW AND ICE PACK PROMISES TO SATURATE DROUGHT-STRICKEN SOIL AND RAISE STREAMFLOWS ONCE IT FINALLY MELTS. THE LOCATIONS LEAST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING THIS SPRING ARE ON THE CUIVRE RIVER AT OLD MONROE AND ON THE MOREAU RIVER AT JEFFERSON CITY. ALL OTHER LOCAL TRIBUTARIES ARE WITHIN 7 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FLOOD PROBABILITIES. THIS YEAR`S OUTLOOK ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REMAINS A LITTLE DRY...THOUGH SPRING FLOOD PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY 5 TO 8 PERCENT BELOW AN HISTORICALLY AVERAGE YEAR. MINOR FLOODING IS NOW LIKELY AT ALL POINTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN CANTON AND WINFIELD...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AT THESE LOCATIONS REMAINS UNLIKELY AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE. PRE-EXISTING SNOW AND ICE PACK IN THE BOTH THE MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN RECENT WEEKS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS TYPICALLY DRIVES THE SPRING FLOOD OUTOOK ALONG THESE RIVERS. THIS YEAR IN THE MISSOURI BASIN...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA HAVE DEPTHS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS NEAR OR ABOVE 4 INCHES FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...RIGHT BANK TRIBUTARIES HAVE VERLY LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK LEFT TO PROVIDE ADDED FLOW OUT OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...OR KANSAS. IN THE MISSISSIPPI BASIN...MOST OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN HAS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES. IN FACT...MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA HAS MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ON THE GROUND. MOST OF IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI HAVE MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ON THE GROUND. THIS HAS BROUGHT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO ALMOST AVERAGE FLOOD CHANCES IN A YEAR FOLLOWING A SEVERE DROUGHT THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE UPPER BASIN. LOCALLY...MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS HAS HAD MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WINTERTIME PRECIPITATION. THIS HAS LEFT SOIL MOISTURE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AS YOU MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. IN THE NEAR TERM...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS CALLS FOR A LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN BOTH THE 6 TO 10 OUTLOOK AND IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION IN THE ST. LOUIS SERVICE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF ST. LOUIS. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING WEATHER, WATER AND CLIMATE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING INTERNET SITES...ALL LOWER CASE. HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LSX HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV HTTP://WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 3/11/2013 - 6/9/2013 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :DARDENNE CREEK ST. PETERS 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 57 52 44 41 34 34 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER CANTON LD20 14.0 20.0 25.0 : 55 63 6 14 <5 <5 QUINCY 17.0 18.0 22.5 : 57 62 49 59 13 24 HANNIBAL 16.0 22.0 24.0 : 59 67 6 11 <5 <5 SAVERTON LD22 16.0 20.0 22.0 : 52 60 26 34 9 19 LOUISIANA 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 60 67 23 32 <5 <5 CLARKSVILLE LD24 25.0 31.0 33.0 : 62 67 13 27 6 13 WINFIELD LD25 26.0 30.0 34.0 : 54 62 26 36 <5 8 :NORTH FABIUS RIVER EWING 11.0 14.0 18.0 : 65 50 26 26 8 9 :MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER EWING 12.0 17.0 19.5 : 72 45 13 11 6 <5 :SOUTH FABIUS RIVER TAYLOR 9.5 14.0 19.0 : 73 62 11 11 <5 <5 :NORTH RIVER PALMYRA 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 59 54 31 27 8 8 :MID FORK SALT RIVER HOLLIDAY 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 52 39 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SALT RIVER NEW LONDON 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CUIVRE RIVER TROY 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 52 50 31 31 8 8 OLD MONROE 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 44 55 19 23 <5 9 :MERAMEC RIVER STEELVILLE 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 37 31 <5 <5 <5 <5 SULLIVAN 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 72 67 11 9 <5 <5 :BOURBEUSE RIVER UNION 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 45 45 8 8 <5 <5 :MERAMEC RIVER PACIFIC 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 47 47 8 8 <5 <5 :BIG RIVER BYRNESVILLE 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 63 62 27 26 <5 <5 :MERAMEC RIVER EUREKA 18.0 25.0 30.0 : 41 47 18 16 9 8 :KASKASKIA RIVER CARLYLE TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 34 49 <5 <5 <5 <5 VANDALIA 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 72 73 23 18 6 6 :LA MOINE RIVER RIPLEY 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 39 41 29 32 6 6 :MOREAU RIVER JEFFERSON CITY 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 51 79 15 30 9 11 :MARIES RIVER WESTPHALIA 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 34 35 10 9 <5 <5 :GASCONADE RIVER RICH FOUNTAIN 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 14 21 <5 7 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 3/11/2013 - 6/9/2013 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :DARDENNE CREEK ST. PETERS 10.1 10.3 12.8 17.5 22.9 24.8 25.3 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER CANTON LD20 10.5 11.0 11.9 14.7 17.5 19.1 21.3 QUINCY 13.8 14.3 15.0 17.9 20.8 22.9 25.4 HANNIBAL 13.4 13.8 14.7 16.9 19.7 21.4 24.0 SAVERTON LD22 11.1 11.6 13.0 16.7 20.3 22.2 24.5 LOUISIANA 12.2 12.7 13.9 17.0 19.9 21.4 24.0 CLARKSVILLE LD24 21.1 22.1 23.8 26.8 29.9 31.7 34.4 WINFIELD LD25 21.1 22.2 24.0 27.0 30.5 31.9 34.2 :NORTH FABIUS RIVER EWING 10.1 10.3 10.6 12.2 14.8 17.4 19.7 :MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER EWING 11.5 11.6 11.9 13.4 15.3 17.6 20.1 :SOUTH FABIUS RIVER TAYLOR 8.2 8.4 9.4 11.1 12.1 15.6 17.0 :NORTH RIVER PALMYRA 8.8 9.3 11.0 14.3 17.2 20.1 23.5 :MID FORK SALT RIVER HOLLIDAY 14.8 15.1 16.2 17.1 18.9 20.8 21.7 :SALT RIVER NEW LONDON 9.4 9.5 9.7 10.4 12.5 15.0 16.6 :CUIVRE RIVER TROY 11.1 12.7 15.8 21.7 25.9 28.5 30.2 OLD MONROE 17.0 18.6 19.6 23.2 26.1 29.1 30.0 :MERAMEC RIVER STEELVILLE 3.5 4.8 8.3 11.1 13.9 15.7 19.7 SULLIVAN 6.4 7.0 10.5 13.6 17.3 21.6 26.0 :BOURBEUSE RIVER UNION 9.5 10.5 12.2 14.5 18.5 21.5 24.2 :MERAMEC RIVER PACIFIC 5.6 7.2 9.1 14.7 18.6 22.7 24.8 :BIG RIVER BYRNESVILLE 8.1 10.8 15.0 17.4 20.3 23.4 25.5 :MERAMEC RIVER EUREKA 7.9 10.0 13.3 16.8 23.1 30.0 32.7 :KASKASKIA RIVER CARLYLE TW 418.6 419.2 420.6 421.7 424.1 424.9 425.8 VANDALIA 14.9 15.6 17.9 20.9 23.9 25.6 26.7 :LA MOINE RIVER RIPLEY 12.8 13.8 18.2 20.6 23.9 26.2 28.6 IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 3/11/2013 - 6/9/2013 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :DARDENNE CREEK ST. PETERS 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER CANTON LD20 4.7 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.6 QUINCY 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.4 11.1 10.9 10.9 HANNIBAL 10.5 10.4 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7 SAVERTON LD22 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.2 LOUISIANA 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 CLARKSVILLE LD24 16.5 16.5 15.9 15.2 14.7 14.2 13.6 WINFIELD LD25 16.3 16.2 15.7 15.0 14.5 14.1 13.4 :NORTH FABIUS RIVER EWING 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 :MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER EWING 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 :SOUTH FABIUS RIVER TAYLOR 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 :NORTH RIVER PALMYRA 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 :MID FORK SALT RIVER HOLLIDAY 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 :SALT RIVER NEW LONDON 5.7 5.3 4.8 3.1 2.4 2.4 2.3 :CUIVRE RIVER TROY 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 OLD MONROE 12.7 12.6 11.7 10.8 10.2 9.7 9.4 :MERAMEC RIVER STEELVILLE 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 SULLIVAN 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.2 :BOURBEUSE RIVER UNION 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 :MERAMEC RIVER PACIFIC 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 :BIG RIVER BYRNESVILLE 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 :MERAMEC RIVER EUREKA 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 :KASKASKIA RIVER CARLYLE TW 420.2 419.0 416.6 411.1 411.1 411.1 411.1 VANDALIA 8.9 5.1 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.5 :LA MOINE RIVER RIPLEY 5.5 4.7 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LSX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER INFORMATION. IF NO FURTHER UPDATE IS NEEDED FOR THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...THE NEXT ROUTINE 90-DAY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH. FUCHS $$ |
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