Latest Information on ENSO (August 2005)
The following is a number of links focusing on the status of El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) / NOAA.
Discussion: Sea surface temperatures (SST) anomailes decreased throughout the eastern
equatorial Pacific during much of July. By early August, the equatorial SST were near average in
most areas between 180° W and the South American coast, while positive anomalies persisted
between Indonesia and 180°W. Tropical convective forcing associated with a weak Madden-
Julian Oscillation (MJO) became stationary across the eastern hemisphere from roughly 40-120E
and centered on the Bay of Bengal. The general westward shift in tropical forcing from the
western into the eastern hemispheres started the early part of 2005. This shift has corresponded
with a westward movement of the positive sea surface temperature anomalies (0.5 - 1.5C) from
near the date line to 160E. The general stationary tropical convective forcing, along with
secondary flare-ups across the Indian and west Pacific Oceans results in a great deal of
uncertainty concerning the future movement and evolution of the convective forcing. However
given the cooling across the central and eastern Pacific and the seasonal cycle, it is believed
that the stationary component will dominate for some time. Thus with the degree of uncertainty
and the recent trends there is support for the continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions for the
next 3 months.
See CPC's Diagnostic Discussions and Forecast Products below for additional and latest
information.
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