National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Since 1992, several staff members at the National Weather Service in St. Louis have been actively participating in the COMET Partners and Cooperative projects with Dr. J.T. Moore, Dr. Frank Lin and a host of graduate students from the Meteorology Department at Saint Louis University. Our initial 'COMET Partners' project was initiated in 1992 and focused on the "Heavy Rainfall Forecasting Problem". Lead Forecaster Fred Glass and Forecaster Dan Ferry worked with Dr. Jim Moore and a number of graduate students. In 1994, a "COMET Cooperative Project" was awarded to WSFO St. Louis and Saint Louis University. The applied research activities focused on two objectives:

1) the study of linear mesoscale convective systems (MCSs - bowing convective structures) that produce severe straight-line winds (downburst) and non-supercell tornadoes. Damaging Wind Group
2) the study of mechanisms responsible for the initiation and propagation of heavy convective rainfall events. Heavy Precipitation Group

Fred Glass (Lead Forecaster) and Dan Ferry (Forecaster) teamed up with Dr. Jim Moore and his graduate students and focused their efforts on the heavy rainfall forecasting problem during the first Cooperative.

Ron Przybylinski (Science and Operations Officer / WSFO St. Louis), Gary Schmocker (Forecaster), and Todd Shea (now WCM at WFO LaCrosse WI) teamed up with Dr. Frank Lin and focused their energies on the damaging downburst winds forecast and warning problem during the first Cooperative.

Some of the first testing of conceptual models / ideas (vortex evolution / Mid-Altitude Radial Convergence (MARC) started during the first Cooperative. The study of severe convective storms producing swaths of damaging winds / non-supercell tornadoes and /or flash flooding are extremely important to the safety of the aviation industry and the general public. In many cases, scores of injuries or even fatalities can occur during a severe event which produces damaging straight-line winds or flash flooding. Our goals of the project focused on improving our warning capabilities for flash flooding, damaging winds, and non-supercell tornadoes. We continue to test new and update current techniques in forecasting these severe weather events. In some cases, we revise our current conceptual storm-scale models based on the new data sets collected over the Mid-Mississippi Valley region during the past six years.   

Our close proximity between the campus of Saint Louis University and the NWS Forecast Office in St. Charles, Missouri makes it very ideal to frequently interact, share common ideas and understand more about storm structure and evolution across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions.

Since the initial COMET Cooperative, Ted Funk (SOO at WFO Louisville KY) and his team of forecasters joined us during the summer of 1995.

A new COMET Cooperative was awarded to us in January of 1997. WFO Paducah KY (Pat Spoden and his group) and WSFO Slidell Louisiana became active participants in the most recent COMET Cooperative. The Louisville and Paducah teams are working with WSFO St. Louis and Saint Louis University on both components of the COMET Cooperative. In contrast, WSFO Slidell Louisana is focusing their work on the heavy rainfall forecasting problem.

The second COMET Cooperative has resulted in a greater degree of interaction between the forecast staff members at WSFO St. Louis and professor / graduate students at Saint Louis University. Ron Przybylinski and Gary Schmocker at WSFO St. Louis continued to work with Dr. Frank Lin, Jim O'Sullivan, Merl Heinlein, and Jamie Kagol. Fred Glass continued to work with Dr. Jim Moore and Steve Considine. David Metze (Journey-level forecaster) from WSFO St. Louis joined the group in the fall of 1997. Jim O'Sullivan continues to work towards his PhD at SLU and was awarded a COMET Fellowship in the summer of 1996. He is currently working on the MM5 mesoscale model. Graduate students Steve Considine, Merl Heinlein Jr. and Jamie Kagol became active members of the project in 1997.

In May 1998, Steve and Merl graduated from Saint Louis University. Steve Considine was awarded an NWS internship at WFO Gaylord Michigan, while Merl Heinlein Jr was awarded an NWS internship at WFO Dodge City Kansas. In early 1998, Steven Klaus and Scott Watson (graduate students at SLU) joined the heavy rainfall group. Jay Martinelli (graduate student at SLU) recently joined the damaging winds group. 

On the NWS side of the house, David Metze, was promoted to Lead Forecaster at WFO Pueblo Colorado while Dan Ferry moved on as a Lead Forecaster at WFO Davenport Iowa. In November 1998, Tom Spriggs from WFO Gaylord Michigan joined the group and will be working with Jim O'Sullivan on the MM5 mesoscale model and damaging winds group at WSFO St. Louis. Just recently, Mark Britt, forecaster from WFO Lincoln Illinois joined our team in March 1999.    

If you have any questions, free free to contact us.