000
AXUS74 KLZK 020512 CCA
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-021800-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1045 PM CST TUE JAN 1 2013

...CONTINUING DROUGHT IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...
...SOME RELIEF COMING THIS WINTER...

SYNOPSIS...

DOWN THE STRETCH IN 2012...ANY DROUGHT RELIEF IN ARKANSAS WAS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR
LEVELS OF DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND
D4 /EXCEPTIONAL/.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...ISSUED DECEMBER 27TH 2012...
INDICATED D2 /42 PERCENT COVERAGE/ AND D3 CONDITIONS
/24 PERCENT COVERAGE/ IN NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SPECIFICALLY...A SEVERE /D2/ TO EXTREME /D3/ DROUGHT AFFECTED
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF TEXARKANA /MILLER COUNTY/...MORRILTON
/CONWAY COUNTY/ AND HARDY /SHARP COUNTY/. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...
D0/D1 CONDITIONS WERE COMMON...WITH NO DROUGHT IN ALL OR PART OF
24 COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST /24 PERCENT OF THE STATE/.

CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS HAD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN
DECEMBER. THIS INCLUDED LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/ AND EL DORADO
/UNION COUNTY/...AND PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON COUNTY/ WAS CLOSE
/95 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH AND WEST WERE PRETTY
MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.

PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER 2012...

SITE                  AMOUNT      DEPARTURE     PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/   2.85         -0.32            90%
HARRISON /NC AR/       2.08         -1.12            65%
JONESBORO /NE AR/      3.69         -1.08            77%
FORT SMITH /WC AR/     2.75         -0.54            84%
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/     5.60         +0.63           113%
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/   3.11         -2.31            57%
TEXARKANA /SW AR/      4.46         -0.59            88%
EL DORADO /SC AR/      6.06         +0.88           117%
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/     5.19         -0.25            95%

THE SOUTH AND EAST ALSO BENEFITTED FROM THE LAST BIG RAIN IN
SEPTEMBER /OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER WERE DRY MONTHS/. EL DORADO /UNION
COUNTY/...JONESBORO /CRAIGHEAD COUNTY/...LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI
COUNTY/...PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON COUNTY/ AND WEST MEMPHIS /CRITTENDEN
COUNTY/ RECEIVED MORE THAN ONE AND A HALF TIMES /150 PERCENT/ THE
NORMAL RAINFALL.

SOME OF THESE SAME AREAS WERE HIT BY THREE TO MORE THAN SIX INCHES
OF RAIN IN LATE AUGUST /THE 30TH AND 31ST/ COURTESY OF THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ISAAC.

PRECIPITATION WAS NOT AS APPRECIABLE IN THE NORTH/WEST. PINE BLUFF
/JEFFERSON COUNTY/ RECEIVED MORE THAN DOUBLE THE RAINFALL OF
HARRISON /BOONE COUNTY/...FORT SMITH /SEBASTIAN COUNTY/ AND
TEXARKANA /MILLER COUNTY/ FROM AUGUST THROUGH DECEMBER.

PRECIPITATION /AUGUST THROUGH DECEMBER 2012/...

SITE                  AMOUNT      DEPARTURE     PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/  14.00         -5.82            71%
HARRISON /NC AR/      11.87         -6.89            63%
JONESBORO /NE AR/     17.97         -1.56            92%
FORT SMITH /WC AR/     9.66         -9.03            52%
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/    21.21         +0.25           101%
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/  15.07         -5.41            74%
TEXARKANA /SW AR/     11.78         -9.36            56%
EL DORADO /SC AR/     22.47         +0.99           105%
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/    25.90         +5.36           126%

AT TEXARKANA /MILLER COUNTY/...THE YEARLY DEFICIT WAS MORE THAN
SEVENTEEN INCHES. DEFICITS FROM TWELVE TO SIXTEEN INCHES WERE
COMMON IN MUCH OF THE NORTH/WEST...AND WERE LESS THAN SIX INCHES
IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS IN 2012...

SITE                  AMOUNT      DEPARTURE     PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/  34.29        -13.93            71%
HARRISON /NC AR/      29.53        -14.61            67%
JONESBORO /NE AR/     33.57        -14.53            70%
FORT SMITH /WC AR/    33.94        -11.52            75%
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/    42.25         -7.50            85%
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/  39.08        -13.15            75%
TEXARKANA /SW AR/     32.07        -17.58            65%
EL DORADO /SC AR/     44.41         -8.51            84%
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/    45.69         -5.46            89%

WHILE PARTS OF THE STATE ARE HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...IT
WILL TAKE MORE RAIN TO WIPE OUT THIS DROUGHT THAT IS THE RESULT
OF THE DRIEST APRIL THROUGH JULY IN STATE HISTORY.

PRECIPITATION FROM APRIL THROUGH JULY 2012...

SITE                  AMOUNT      DEPARTURE     PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/   7.91        -10.79            42%
HARRISON /NC AR/       6.40         -9.99            39%
JONESBORO /NE AR/      5.67        -11.25            34%
FORT SMITH /WC AR/     9.62         -7.73            55%
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/     6.43        -10.50            38%
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/  12.29         -5.89            68%
TEXARKANA /SW AR/      9.18         -7.74            54%
EL DORADO /SC AR/      7.98         -9.62            45%
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/    10.11         -7.38            58%

DRIEST APRIL THROUGH JULY PERIODS IN ARKANSAS...

               YEAR                      AMOUNT

               2012                       9.03
               1896                      10.75
               1901                      10.78
               1926                      11.30
               1936                      11.62
               1925                      11.68
               1914                      11.70
               1934                      11.71
               1998                      11.96
               1988                      12.13

IT WAS THE SECOND WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE 
TEMPERATURE OF 63.40 DEGREES. DUE TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN 
OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER...1921 TOOK OVER THE TOP SLOT /63.70 
DEGREES/.

WARMEST YEARS IN ARKANSAS...

               YEAR                  AVG TEMPERATURE

               1921                      63.70
               2012                      63.40
               1998                      63.10
               1938                      63.00
               1954                      62.90
               1933                      62.70
               1927                      62.60
               1925                      62.50
               1896                      62.30
               1911                      62.30
               1934                      62.30

SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...

THE GROUND WATER SUPPLY WAS HIGHEST AND SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. MOISTURE WAS SUBPAR
IN THE NORTH/WEST.

STREAMFLOW WAS ALSO AVERAGE OR A LITTLE ON THE PLUS SIDE IN THE
SOUTH/EAST. ANY BELOW NORMAL VALUES WERE MOSTLY IN THE NORTH/WEST.

OVERALL...AREA LAKES WERE IN DECENT SHAPE. LEVELS WERE GENERALLY
60 TO 80 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION POOL ELEVATIONS. WATER WAS SLOWLY
FALLING IN THE NORTH/WEST...AND SLOWLY FALLING IN THE SOUTH/EAST.

LAKE INFORMATION ON DECEMBER 31TH 2012...

LOCATION                  7 AM LEVEL (FT)     CONSERVATION POOL

BEAVER LAKE /NW AR/           1108.9               1120.4
TABLE ROCK LAKE /SW MO/        905.1                915.0
BULL SHOALS /NC AR/            645.6                654.0
NORFORK LAKE /NC AR/           541.1                553.8
GREERS FERRY /NC AR/           454.8                461.4
NIMROD LAKE /C AR/             342.8                342.0
GILLHAM LAKE /SW AR/           497.4                502.0
MILLWOOD LAKE /SW AR/          259.9                259.2

ON DECEMBER 31ST...THERE WAS A LOW WILDFIRE DANGER AND NO BURN BANS
DECLARED IN ANY OF THE 75 ARKANSAS COUNTIES.

FORECAST...

AS FAR AS THE FUTURE WEATHER PATTERN...NEUTRAL CONDITIONS /CLOSE TO
NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN/ ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. GIVEN A
NEUTRAL SCENARIO...RESEARCH THROUGH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES A BIAS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY
THROUGH MARCH 2013. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES.

DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE USUALLY MORE FREQUENT...
AND PRECIPITATION CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL IF THE RIGHT INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER. THIS WOULD ADD TO THE GROUND WATER SUPPLY...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT VEGETATION WILL GO DORMANT AND CONSUME LESS
MOISTURE.

IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL BIG RAIN EVENTS TO ERASE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS
IN THE NORTH/WEST. THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WATER TO END THE DROUGHT
COMPLETELY.

IT MUST BE MENTIONED THAT THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/ COULD PLAY A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE COMING FEW MONTHS. TO END 2012...THE AO WAS
LARGELY NEGATIVE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN /FROM 20
DEGREES N LATITUDE POLEWARD/ AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRESSURE IN THE
MID-LATITUDES /WHERE WE LIVE/ CREATED WEAKER WESTERLIES OVER CANADA.
THIS ALLOWED COLD AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE UNITED STATES...AND WAS A
CONTRIBUTOR TO A CHRISTMAS SNOWSTORM LOCALLY. LAST WINTER...THE AO
WAS POSITIVE...AND IT WAS MILD WITH LITTLE SNOW/ICE.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE AO CANNOT BE USED AS A LONG TERM INDICATOR
BECAUSE IT VARIES EVERY FEW WEEKS.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

DROUGHT INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO WFO LITTLE ROCK CWA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/?N=DROUGHT2012.HTM

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER:
WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER:
WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118

PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

46

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