Spring Flood Outlook - Updated 3/5/10

The National Weather Service in Aberdeen has issued an updated spring flood outlook for locations across central, north-central and northeast South Dakota and west-central Minnesota. The combination of above normal rainfall last fall and near to above normal snowfall this winter (December through February) has led to the potential for significant flooding along many rivers in South Dakota and Minnesota (see current snow depth graphic below). The official Spring Flood Outlook can be found by clicking HERE

The Spring Flood Outlook provides a probabilistic forecast showing percent chances of reaching critical river stages at various forecast points along area rivers.  There are many factors that will ultimately determine the eventual river crests at these locations including the amount of additional precipitation that falls over the area this spring and how fast the temperatures warm up the remainder of March into April.  Note - the spring outlook only accounts for flooding due to snow melt and does not account for any flooding due to ice jams.  

In addition to river flooding, widespread areal flooding or ponding of water will also be likely across the region. Sloughs, ponds, and lakes will likely experience significant rises that could threaten some secondary roads.

  

Estimated Snow Depth as of 3/5/2010
 

 

Below is a listing of potential impacts at specific locations along rivers in the NWS Aberdeen forecast area.  A complete set of probabilistic forecasts can be found in the text of our Spring Flood Outlook.

James River at Columbia

River Stage       (Flood Category)
Probability of Reaching This Stage
Flood Impacts at this Stage
18.0 Ft (Major)
>98%
137th St between 395th and 400th Ave is flooded
17.0 Ft (Moderate)
>98%
Water reaches the base of the levee at Columbia Park
13.0 Ft (Minor)
>98%
Flooding of lower lying agricultural areas begins

 

 

 

James River at Stratford

River Stage       (Flood Category)
Probability of Reaching This Stage
Flood Impacts at this Stage
19.0 Ft (Major)
>98%
The water reaches the bottom of the bridge 3 miles south of the gauge
17.0 Ft (Moderate)
>98%
County roads begin to flood
14.0 Ft (Minor)
>98%
Significant amounts of agricultural lands begin flooding

 

 

 

 

James River at Ashton

River Stage       (Flood Category)
Probability of Reaching This Stage
Flood Impacts at this Stage
16.0 Ft (Major)
>98%
Water overtops the bridge 3 miles north and 1 ½ miles east of Ashton
14.0 Ft (Moderate)
>98%
Water reaches the bottom of the bridge 3 miles north and 1 ½ miles east of Ashton
13.0 Ft (Minor)
>98%
Flooding of lower lying agricultural areas begins

 

 

 

 

 James River near Redfield

River Stage       (Flood Category)
Probability of Reaching This Stage
Flood Impacts at this Stage
25.0 Ft (Major)
68%
The bridge 2 miles east of the gauge is overtopped
22.0 Ft (Moderate)
78%
Flooding of significant amounts of agricultural and wooded areas begins
20.0 Ft (Minor)
90%
Flooding of low lying agricultural and pasture land begins

 

 

 

 


Grand River near Little Eagle

River Stage       (Flood Category)
Probability of Reaching This Stage
Flood Impacts at this Stage
21.0 Ft (Major)
51%
The community of Little Eagle begins to experience some flooding
17.0 Ft (Moderate)
>98%
Extensive flooding of pasture land begins as both banks of the river are overtopped
15.0 Ft (Minor)
>98%
Low lying pasture and hay land along the river begins to flood

 

 

 

 

 


Big Sioux River 7 NW Watertown

River Stage       (Flood Category)
Probability of Reaching This Stage
Flood Impacts at this Stage
10.0 Ft (Minor)
76%
Significant amounts of pasture land and crop land are flooded

 

 

 

Big Sioux River at Castlewood

River Stage       (Flood Category)
Probability of Reaching This Stage
Flood Impacts at this Stage
13.0 Ft (Moderate)
70%
The water reaches the bottom of the bridge at the gauge.
11.0 Ft (Minor)
>98%
Significant amounts of pasture and other agricultural land will be flooded



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