1st Spring Snowmelt Flood Potential Outlook Issued

Above To Much Above Normal Chance For Flooding This Spring

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1000 AM CST THU JAN 27 2010

       ...FIRST SPRING HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PLANNED FLOOD
OUTLOOKS PROVIDING FLOOD POTENTIAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION
FOR THIS COMING SPRING. THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION WHICH WAS
COLLECTED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES...INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /USACE/...
MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER /MRCC/...AND THE NATIONAL
OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER /NOHRSC/.

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK IS A SUMMARY OF THE PAST AND PRESENT BASIN
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

*** FLOOD POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS ***

IN SHORT...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THIS COMING SPRING APPEARS TO
BE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

GIVEN THE CURRENT OUTLOOK CONDITIONS...THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS
THAT ARE POINTING TOWARD MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING FOR SEVERAL
TRIBUTARIES FEEDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ITSELF. REFER TO INDIVIDUAL SECTIONS BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

HERE IS A TABLE OF FLOOD POTENTIAL CATEGORICAL PROBABILITIES AND
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...VALID 2/1/2011 - 5/2/2011

                                                           DEP FROM
                        ---------FLOOD STAGES---------      NORMAL
                         MINOR     MODERATE    MAJOR     OF REACHING
 LOCATION               STG  PCT   STG  PCT   STG  PCT   FLOOD STAGE

BLACK RIVER
 NEILLSVILLE             18   1%    20  ---    22  ---   NEAR NORMAL
 BLACK RIVER FALLS       47  72%    51  47%    55  16%   21% GREATER
 GALESVILLE              12  82%    13  63%    15   6%   31% GREATER

CEDAR RIVER
 LANSING                 18   6%    20   3%    22  ---   NEAR NORMAL
 AUSTIN                  15   6%    18   3%    20   3%   NEAR NORMAL
 CHARLES CITY            12  39%    15  13%    18   6%   27% GREATER

TURTLE CREEK
 AUSTIN                10.5  45%    12  31%    14  16%   30% GREATER

KICKAPOO RIVER
 LA FARGE                12  19%    13   3%    14  ---   18% GREATER
 VIOLA                   14  90%    17   4%    20  ---   66% GREATER
 READSTOWN               12  60%    15  ---    17  ---   52% GREATER
 SOLDIERS GROVE          13  75%    16   1%    19  ---   58% GREATER
 GAYS MILLS              13  96%    15  23%    17  ---   61% GREATER
 STEUBEN                 12  93%    13  54%    15  ---   66% GREATER

MISSISSIPPI RIVER
 LAKE CITY               16  93%    18  73%    20  32%   68% GREATER
 WABASHA                 12 >98%    14  91%    16  63%   70% GREATER
 ALMA DAM 4              16  59%    17  34%    18  21%   52% GREATER
 MINNESOTA CITY DAM 5   660  93%   662  83%   665  37%   64% GREATER
 WINONA DAM 5A          656  93%   659  70%   661  37%   68% GREATER
 WINONA                  13 >98%    15  93%    18  67%   70% GREATER
 TREMPEALEAU DAM 6      647  96%   649  86%   651  45%   62% GREATER
 LA CRESCENT DAM 7      641  95%   643  82%   645  44%   61% GREATER
 LA CROSSE               12 >98%    13  91%  15.5  47%   70% GREATER
 GENOA DAM 8            631 >98%   634  82%   636  47%   70% GREATER
 LANSING                 18  67%    19  55%    20  42%   60% GREATER
 LYNXVILLE DAM 9        625  93%   628  75%   631  36%   64% GREATER
 MCGREGOR                16 >98%    20  83%    23  60%   70% GREATER
 GUTTENBERG DAM 10       15 >98%    18  73%    21  39%   70% GREATER

ROOT RIVER
 HOUSTON                 15  52%    17   3%    18  ---   40% GREATER

SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER
 HILLSBORO               13   9%    14  ---    16  ---   NEAR NORMAL

SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
 LANESBORO               12  27%    16   3%    18  ---   21% GREATER

TREMPEALEAU RIVER
 DODGE                    9 >98%    11  67%    12  26%   80% GREATER

TURKEY RIVER
 ELKADER                 12  52%    16  18%    20   3%    8% GREATER
 GARBER                  17  49%    20  29%    23  19%   15% GREATER

UPPER IOWA RIVER
 DECORAH                 12   4%    13   1%    14  ---   NEAR NORMAL
 DORCHESTER HWY 76       14  70%    17  23%    19   3%   38% GREATER

WISCONSIN RIVER
 MUSCODA                  9  37%    10  21%    11   9%   15% GREATER

ZUMBRO RIVER
 ZUMBRO FALLS            18  65%    24  23%    26  11%   58% GREATER

SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
 ROCHESTER - 37TH ST     14  29%    18   6%    20   3%   26% GREATER


STG = STAGE (FEET)
PCT = PERCENT
--- = DISTRIBUTION COMPLETELY BELOW THIS STAGE
DEP = DEPARTURE



*** CEDAR RIVER BASIN FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA ***

AUTUMN PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL...AS MUCH AS 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE CEDAR BASIN AND ALONG THE IOWA
MINNESOTA BORDER.

MONTHLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS WERE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
AUTUMN AND HAVE REMAINED ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WINTER.
ADDITIONALLY...ICE EFFECTS HAVE ELEVATED RIVER STAGES AND MAKE THE
COMPARISON OF FLOW TO NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MORE DIFFICULT
TO QUANTIFY.

PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY HAS BEEN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...
WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE BORDER WITH MINNESOTA SEEING FROM 150 TO
300 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL MEAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD.

AUTUMN TEMPERATURES WERE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT WINTER
TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED 6 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
JANUARY.

CURRENT MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES.  THE CURRENT AVERAGE SNOW DEPTH ACROSS THE AREA IS 12 TO
18 INCHES.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR LONG TERM DROUGHT INDICATOR SHOWS EXTREMELY
WET CONDITIONS.

FROST DEPTHS ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW DUE TO THE INSULATING EFFECT OF
THE EARLY SNOW COVER FROM THE DECEMBER STORMS...WHICH ARRIVED BEFORE
THE REALLY COLD TEMPERATURES INVADED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF DECEMBER
INTO JANUARY. FROST DEPTHS RANGE FROM 12 TO 18 INCHES.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...THERE IS A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THIS BASIN.


*** TURKEY AND UPPER IOWA RIVER BASINS IN NORTHEAST IOWA ***

THE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED FOR THE CEDAR RIVER BASIN ARE VERY SIMILAR
FOR THE PART OF NORTHEAST IOWA WHICH COMPRISES THE TURKEY AND UPPER
IOWA RIVER BASINS.

ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM LATE SUMMER THROUGH THE AUTUMN HAVE
RESULTED IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WELL.

SNOW DEPTH ACROSS THESE BASINS CURRENTLY AVERAGES BETWEEN 12 AND
18 INCHES...WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF MOISTURE CONTENT. FROST
DEPTH IS SHALLOW...12 INCHES OR LESS.

FOR THESE BASINS...FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HOW FAST
THE SNOW MELTS...AND ON FUTURE PRECIPITATION EVENTS. OVERALL...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING
THIS SPRING.


*** ZUMBRO AND ROOT RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ***

WIDESPREAD RECORD AND NEAR RECORD RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA NEAR THE END OF SEPTEMBER. COMBINED WITH THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THAT WERE IN PLACE FOLLOWING A VERY WET
SUMMER. MAJOR TO RECORD FLOODING WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE ZUMBRO
RIVER...WITH HIGH WATER ALONG THE ROOT RIVER AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER HELPED TO DRY THINGS OUT
SLIGHTLY...BUT STREAMFLOW REMAINS AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINTER TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED 4 TO
7 DEGREES BELOW THE MEAN.

PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER WAS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MANY STATIONS
REPORTING TOP 5 ALL TIME SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE MONTH. ADDITIONALLY
A WIDESPREAD NEW YEARS RAIN EVENT CONTRIBUTED TO THE ABOVE NORMAL
WINTER PRECIPITATION THROUGH JANUARY AND COMPLICATES THE ESTIMATION
OF MODELED WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOWPACK. WINTER PRECIPITATION
THROUGH JANUARY HAS RANGED FROM 150 TO MORE THAN 200 PERCENT OF THE
MEAN ACROSS THE AREA.

CURRENT MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND
4.5 INCHES. THE CURRENT AVERAGE SNOW DEPTH IS GENERALLY AROUND 13
INCHES WITH A RANGE BETWEEN 11 AND 17 INCHES BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR LONG TERM DROUGHT INDICATOR SHOWS VERY WET
TO EXTREMELY WET CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA.

THERE IS AN ABOVE AVERAGE THREAT FOR FLOODING THIS SPRING IN THESE
BASINS.


*** BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVER BASINS IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ***

WIDESPREAD RECORD AND NEAR RECORD RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS THESE
BASINS NEAR THE END OF SEPTEMBER. COMBINED WITH THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS THAT WERE IN PLACE FOLLOWING A VERY WET SUMMER. MAJOR TO
RECORD FLOODING WAS OBSERVED. AUTUMN PRECIPITATION TOTALED 125 TO
175 PERCENT OF THE MEAN.

THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER HELPED TO DRY THINGS OUT
SLIGHTLY...BUT STREAMFLOW REMAINED MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
AUTUMN AND CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER WAS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MANY STATIONS
REPORTING TOP-5 OR RECORD SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE MONTH. WINTER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH JANUARY HAVE RANGED FROM 125 TO OVER
200 PERCENT OF THE MEAN ACROSS THE BASIN. WINTER TEMPERATURES HAVE
AVERAGED 1 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW THE MEAN.

CURRENT MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THESE BASINS. THE CURRENT AVERAGE SNOW DEPTH IS
GENERALLY AROUND 15 INCHES WITH A RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 25 INCHES
BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR LONG TERM DROUGHT INDICATOR SHOWS VERY WET
TO EXTREMELY WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THESE BASINS IS ABOVE OR EVEN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS.


*** WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN AND TRIBUTARIES INCLUDING THE KICKAPOO ***

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION NEAR
THE END OF SEPTEMBER. COMBINED WITH THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THAT
WERE IN PLACE FOLLOWING A VERY WET SUMMER. MAJOR FLOODING WAS
OBSERVED AT MANY POINTS FOLLOWING THIS EVENT. AUTUMN PRECIPITATION
TOTALED 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF THE MEAN.

THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER HELPED TO DRY THINGS OUT
SLIGHTLY...BUT STREAMFLOW REMAINED MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
FALL AND CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINTER PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH JANUARY HAVE RANGED FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF THE MEAN. WINTER TEMPERATURES HAVE
AVERAGED 1 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES. THE CURRENT AVERAGE SNOW DEPTH IS GENERALLY AROUND 10
INCHES WITH A RANGE BETWEEN 6 AND 14 INCHES BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR LONG TERM DROUGHT INDICATOR SHOWS VERY WET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THESE BASINS IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS.


*** MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LAKE CITY MINNESOTA TO GUTTENBERG IOWA ***

WIDESPREAD RECORD AND NEAR RECORD RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN NEAR THE END OF
SEPTEMBER. COMBINED WITH THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THAT WERE IN PLACE
FOLLOWING A VERY WET SUMMER. MAJOR TO RECORD FLOODING WAS OBSERVED
AT MANY TRIBUTARY POINTS FOLLOWING THIS EVENT. AUTUMN PRECIPITATION
TOTALED 125 TO GREATER THAN 200 PERCENT OF THE MEAN.

THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER HELPED TO DRY THINGS OUT
SLIGHTLY...BUT STREAMFLOW REMAINS AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MANY LOCATIONS. WINTER TEMPERATURES HAVE
AVERAGED 4 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW THE MEAN.

PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER WAS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MANY STATIONS
REPORTING TOP-5 ALL TIME SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE MONTH. ADDITIONALLY
A WIDESPREAD NEW YEARS RAIN EVENT CONTRIBUTED TO THE ABOVE-NORMAL
WINTER PRECIPITATION THROUGH JANUARY AND COMPLICATES THE ESTIMATION
OF MODELED WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOWPACK. WINTER PRECIPITATION
THROUGH JANUARY HAS RANGED FROM 150 TO MORE THAN 200 PERCENT OF THE
MEAN ACROSS THE AREA.

CURRENT MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES.
THE CURRENT AVERAGE SNOW DEPTH IS GENERALLY AROUND 12 INCHES WITH A
RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 17 INCHES BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR LONG TERM DROUGHT INDICATOR SHOWS VERY WET
TO EXTREMELY WET CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA.

SNOW DEPTH AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE EVEN HIGHER FURTHER
UPSTREAM IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN...AS
WELL AS THE MINNESOTA...SAINT CROIX...AND CHIPPEWA RIVER BASINS.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS AS MUCH AS 5 TO 6 INCHES IN PARTS OF THOSE
BASINS. AS THIS SNOW MELTS...RUNOFF WILL FLOW DOWNSTREAM...IMPACTING
LEVELS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI THROUGH OUR AREA.

CURRENT WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. AS RUNOFF INCREASES...THERE IS
LESS ROOM FOR THE RIVER TO CARRY THIS WATER WITHOUT SPILLING INTO
LOWLAND AREAS.

FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ITSELF...SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALMOST A
SURETY...EVEN GIVEN IDEAL MELTING CONDITIONS. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
THAT WATER LEVELS COULD REACH MODERATE OR EVEN MAJOR CATEGORIES.
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS THUS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THIS SPRING.

PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CONSIDER MAKING
CONTINGENCY PLANS TO DEAL WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR FLOODING BY LATE
MARCH.


...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE OUTLOOK TABLE BELOW WILL SHOW THE PROBABILITY FOR FLOODING AT
SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE REGION.

A MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
DURING THE LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING OF 2011.  LA NINA IS
COLDER-THAN-NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.  THIS RESULTS IN NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH BRING FREQUENT BOUTS OF
CANADIAN AIR MASSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.  DUE TO THIS...
FEBRUARY AND MARCH TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING EIGHTY
PERCENT OF LA NINAS...AND THIS DELAYS SNOW MELT. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD BE THE CASE THIS SPRING.

WHILE MOST LOCATIONS ARE SEEN WITH AN ABOVE OR EVEN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL CHANCE FOR FLOODING...WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT THE SEVERITY
OF ANY FLOODING THIS SPRING WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.  OBVIOUSLY...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL ONLY ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF.
AND SEVERAL OTHER FACTORS...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
MONTHS...AND HOW FAST THE SNOW MELTS...WILL PLAY INTO THE EVENTUAL
OUTCOME.  IT IS STILL EARLY TO TRY AND PREDICT THESE SPECIFIC
EFFECTS.

THAT BEING SAID...IT WOULD STILL BE VERY PRUDENT TO PLAN FOR
FLOODING WELL AHEAD OF TIME. TAKE ACTIONS AND PRECAUTIONS NOW TO
PROTECT PROPERTY AND INTERESTS. IF YOU ARE CONSIDERING THE PURCHASE
OF FLOOD INSURANCE...NOW IS THE TIME.  THERE IS A 30-DAY WAIT PERIOD
BEFORE ANY PURCHASED INSURANCE GOES INTO EFFECT.


...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS...

THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR
RIVER BASINS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS OUTLOOK IS DIVIDED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE
FOR HIGH WATER...AND ONE FOR LOW WATER.

A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE
FORECASTS IS GIVEN AT THE END OF THIS OUTLOOK.

IN THE FIRST TABLE BELOW FOR HIGH WATER...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT
COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED
STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AT LA CROSSE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS
THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE REACHING 18.1 FEET.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID  2/1/2011 - 5/2/2011

LOCATION FS(FT)   90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%

BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE  18   9.6  10.1  10.9  11.8  12.7  13.3  14.0  14.8  15.2
BLK RVR FLS  47  45.1  46.3  47.5  50.3  50.9  52.1  53.8  54.9  56.4
GALESVILLE   12  11.3  12.2  12.5  13.1  13.4  13.8  14.1  14.5  15.0

CEDAR RIVER
LANSING      18  14.8  15.0  15.3  15.6  15.9  16.1  16.7  17.2  17.4
AUSTIN       15   8.6   9.1   9.7  10.3  11.0  11.4  12.4  13.7  14.2
CHARLES CTY  12   8.0   9.2   9.6  10.1  10.8  11.8  13.2  14.3  16.8

TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN       10   8.2   9.0   9.4   9.9  10.5  10.9  12.5  13.9  15.5

KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE     12   9.0   9.7  10.0  10.7  11.2  11.5  11.7  12.1  12.5
VIOLA        14  14.0  14.4  14.6  14.9  15.4  15.5  15.7  15.9  16.9
READSTOWN    12  11.1  11.3  11.8  12.1  12.4  12.6  12.8  13.1  13.6
SLDRS GROVE  13  12.6  12.9  13.2  13.6  14.0  14.2  14.3  14.7  15.2
GAYS MILLS   13  13.3  13.6  13.9  14.1  14.4  14.7  14.8  15.3  16.1
STEUBEN      12  12.2  12.5  12.7  12.9  13.2  13.3  13.4  13.8  14.1

MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY    16  16.8  17.8  18.2  18.9  19.1  19.5  20.2  21.0  22.9
WABASHA      12  14.2  15.0  15.6  16.2  16.4  16.9  17.5  18.3  20.5
ALMA         16  13.8  14.8  15.3  16.0  16.3  16.7  17.4  18.3  20.4
DAM 5        MM 661.5 662.7 663.4 664.0 664.6 664.9 665.6 666.5 668.7
DAM 5A       MM 657.1 658.5 659.2 660.0 660.5 660.8 661.5 662.2 664.1
WINONA       13  15.6  17.2  17.9  18.6  19.1  19.3  19.8  20.3  21.2
TREMPEALEAU  MM 648.5 649.7 650.1 650.6 650.9 651.2 651.5 652.0 653.5
LA CRESCENT  MM 642.0 643.2 643.7 644.3 644.8 645.3 645.5 646.3 648.6
LA CROSSE    12  13.1  14.0  14.3  14.9  15.4  15.8  16.1  16.8  18.1
GENOA        MM 632.8 634.3 634.6 635.4 635.8 636.5 636.8 637.6 639.6
LANSING      18  15.4  17.4  17.8  18.7  19.3  20.1  20.5  21.3  23.5
LYNXVILLE    MM 625.7 627.8 628.3 629.3 630.0 630.8 631.3 632.4 635.8
MCGREGOR     16  18.5  20.5  21.9  23.1  23.9  24.5  25.1  25.6  27.8
GUTTENBERG   15  16.2  17.7  18.8  19.7  20.3  21.2  22.0  22.7  26.1

ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON      15  11.2  12.6  13.4  14.0  15.2  15.6  16.0  16.2  16.6

SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER
HILLSBORO    13   7.2   7.9   9.6  10.8  11.6  11.9  12.3  12.5  13.1

SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO    12   6.8   7.4   8.6   9.3  10.1  10.7  11.7  12.8  13.7

TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE         9  10.3  10.5  10.9  11.1  11.2  11.4  11.8  12.1  12.4

TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER      12   9.8  10.6  11.2  11.7  12.3  13.0  13.8  15.7  18.9
GARBER       17  12.9  13.8  14.5  15.7  17.0  18.1  20.0  22.9  23.7

UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH      12   6.5   7.6   7.9   8.4   8.8   9.4  10.0  10.7  11.5
DORCHESTER   14  12.2  13.7  14.0  14.5  15.3  16.1  16.6  17.5  18.8

WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA       9   4.7   6.2   6.8   7.4   7.9   8.8   9.5  10.1  11.0

ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS   18  16.1  16.8  17.8  18.4  19.2  20.8  22.9  24.7  27.2

SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER    14   9.3   9.7  10.0  10.6  11.2  12.7  14.0  16.1  17.1

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH
LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE NORMALLY ISSUED NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. HOWEVER DURING THE
SPRING...THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INCLUDED WITH ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL
INFORMATION.

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE LA CROSSE NWS INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE (LOWER CASE).

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER
FORECAST CENTER WEBSITE AT

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC


THE NEXT FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 17TH.

$$

WELVAERT


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