Latest Spring Snowmelt Flood Outlook - Issued Feb.17th

Above To Much Above Normal Chance For Flooding Across The Region This Spring

Greatest Threat Along Mississippi River - Major Flooding Possible

 

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1000 AM CST THU FEB 17 2011

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF PLANNED FLOOD
OUTLOOKS PROVIDING FLOOD POTENTIAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION
FOR THIS COMING SPRING. THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION WHICH WAS
COLLECTED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES...INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /USACE/...
MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER /MRCC/...AND THE NATIONAL
OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER /NOHRSC/.

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK IS A SUMMARY OF THE PAST AND PRESENT BASIN
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.


*** FLOOD POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS ***

...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE POTENTIAL ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ITSELF...

OVERALL...NOT MUCH HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION SINCE OUR LAST OUTLOOK ISSUED IN LATE JANUARY.

RECENT MILD WEATHER HAS GREATLY REDUCED THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE AMOUNT OF WATER IN THAT SNOW COVER REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH. DESPITE THE WARM WEATHER AND LOSS OF SNOW...AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE NOT YET SHOWN MUCH OF A RISE. BUT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE MELT SHOULD RESULT IN RISING WATER LEVELS ALONG THE TRIBUTARY
CREEKS AND STREAMS FROM TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINOR FLOODING IS
A POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH OF THE SNOW MELTS.

BEYOND THIS THREAT...FUTURE PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING MARCH OR
APRIL...WHETHER IT IS SNOW OR RAIN...MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RISK
FOR FLOODING ON THE TRIBUTARY STREAMS...GIVEN THE VERY WET SOILS.
THE OUTLOOK INFORMATION BELOW TAKES INTO ACCOUNT BOTH THE SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM CHANCES FOR FLOODING.

THE FLOODING THREAT FOR THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER ITSELF IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE FROM LATE MARCH INTO MIDDLE APRIL...AS RUNOFF
FROM SNOW MELT AND PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM CONCENTRATE AND FLOW
THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS RISK REMAINS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE.

REFER TO INDIVIDUAL SECTIONS BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HERE IS A TABLE OF FLOOD POTENTIAL CATEGORICAL PROBABILITIES AND
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...VALID 2/17/2011 - 5/23/2011

                                                           DEP FROM
                        ---------FLOOD STAGES---------      NORMAL
                         MINOR     MODERATE    MAJOR     OF REACHING
 LOCATION               STG  PCT   STG  PCT   STG  PCT   FLOOD STAGE

BLACK RIVER
 NEILLSVILLE             18   3%    20   1%    22  ---   NEAR NORMAL
 BLACK RIVER FALLS       47  82%    51  57%    55  16%   26% GREATER
 GALESVILLE              12  88%    13  67%    15   8%   32% GREATER

CEDAR RIVER
 LANSING                 18  23%    20   4%    22  ---   16% GREATER
 AUSTIN                  15  14%    18   6%    20  ---    7% GREATER
 CHARLES CITY            12  47%    15  23%    18  11%   35% GREATER

TURTLE CREEK
 AUSTIN                10.5  63%    12  42%    14  24%   47% GREATER

KICKAPOO RIVER
 LA FARGE                12  24%    13   8%    14   1%   22% GREATER
 VIOLA                   14 >98%    17  13%    20  ---   74% GREATER
 READSTOWN               11 >98%    15   8%    17  ---   69% GREATER
 SOLDIERS GROVE          13  86%    16   9%    19   1%   68% GREATER
 GAYS MILLS              13 >98%    15  31%    17   6%   62% GREATER
 STEUBEN                 12 >98%    13  63%    15   4%   69% GREATER

MISSISSIPPI RIVER
 LAKE CITY               16  95%    18  80%    20  50%   66% GREATER
 WABASHA                 12 >98%    14  93%    16  73%   45% GREATER
 ALMA DAM 4              16  68%    17  55%    18  31%   62% GREATER
 MINNESOTA CITY DAM 5   660 >98%   662  91%   665  55%   67% GREATER
 WINONA DAM 5A          656 >98%   659  80%   661  55%   71% GREATER
 WINONA                  13 >98%    15  95%    18  75%   57% GREATER
 TREMPEALEAU DAM 6      647 >98%   649  93%   651  59%   64% GREATER
 LA CRESCENT DAM 7      641 >98%   643  86%   645  59%   64% GREATER
 LA CROSSE               12 >98%    13  95%  15.5  59%   61% GREATER
 GENOA DAM 8            631 >98%   634  86%   636  59%   50% GREATER
 LANSING                 18  75%    19  65%    20  49%   68% GREATER
 LYNXVILLE DAM 9        625 >98%   628  82%   631  44%   67% GREATER
 MCGREGOR                16 >98%    20  88%    23  67%   49% GREATER
 GUTTENBERG DAM 10       15 >98%    18  83%    21  47%   55% GREATER

ROOT RIVER
 HOUSTON                 15  37%    17   4%    18  ---   25% GREATER

SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER
 HILLSBORO               13  13%    14  ---    16  ---    6% GREATER

SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
 LANESBORO               12  18%    16   3%    18   1%   11% GREATER

TREMPEALEAU RIVER
 DODGE                    9 >98%    11  67%    12  26%   80% GREATER

TURKEY RIVER
 ELKADER                 12  41%    16  16%    20   8%   NEAR NORMAL
 GARBER                  17  36%    20  24%    23  11%   NEAR NORMAL

UPPER IOWA RIVER
 DECORAH                 12   6%    13   1%    14  ---   NEAR NORMAL
 DORCHESTER HWY 76       14  68%    17  21%    19   9%   38% GREATER

WISCONSIN RIVER
 MUSCODA                  9  42%    10  21%    11  16%   18% GREATER

ZUMBRO RIVER
 ZUMBRO FALLS            18  54%    24  18%    26   9%   47% GREATER

SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
 ROCHESTER - 37TH ST     14  21%    18   4%    20   1%   17% GREATER


STG = STAGE (FEET)
PCT = PERCENT
--- = DISTRIBUTION COMPLETELY BELOW THIS STAGE
DEP = DEPARTURE



*** CEDAR RIVER BASIN FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA ***

AFTER THE WET FALL AND SIGNIFICANT WINTER SNOWFALL...MONTHLY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW REMAINED MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WINTER. WINTER
TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WITH SNOWMELT IN PROGRESS DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS PAST
WEEK...CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES.
THE CURRENT AVERAGE SNOW DEPTH ACROSS THE AREA IS 7 TO 12 INCHES.

FROST DEPTHS ARE VERY SHALLOW...6 INCHES OR LESS...WITH MANY AREAS
NOT HAVING ANY FROST.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY RUNOFF
FROM THE CURRENT SNOW MELT...AND ALSO ON FUTURE RAIN OR SNOW EVENTS.
OVERALL...THERE REMAINS A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR
FLOODING IN THIS BASIN.


*** TURKEY AND UPPER IOWA RIVER BASINS IN NORTHEAST IOWA ***

THE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE FOR THE CEDAR RIVER BASIN ARE SIMILAR
FOR THE PART OF NORTHEAST IOWA WHICH COMPRISES THE TURKEY AND UPPER
IOWA RIVER BASINS.

A WET FALL AND SIGNIFICANT WINTER SNOWFALL HAVE KEPT STREAMFLOW
LEVELS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.

THE RECENT SNOWMELT HAS REDUCED THE SNOW DEPTH TO BETWEEN 3 AND 10
INCHES...WITH LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH...UP TO
AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES IN THE HEADWATER AREAS.

FROST DEPTH IS VERY SHALLOW...6 INCHES OR LESS...WITH MANY AREAS
HAVING NO FROST AT ALL.

FOR THESE BASINS...FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY RUNOFF
FROM THIS SNOW MELT...AND ALSO ON FUTURE PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
OVERALL...THERE REMAINS A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE
FOR MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING.


*** ZUMBRO AND ROOT RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ***

THESE BASINS CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY WET CONDITIONS AFTER THE RECORD
RAINFALL FROM LAST FALL...AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED TOP-FIVE ALL TIME SNOW TOTALS FOR
THE MONTH OF DECEMBER.

WITH SNOWMELT IN PROGRESS DUE TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS PAST WEEK...CURRENT SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS A FEW
INCHES IN THE HILLY TERRAIN...UP TO AS MUCH AS A FOOT AROUND AND
WEST OF ROCHESTER. LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM AN INCH OR
LESS UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS UP NEAR 4 INCHES IN
THE UPPER PART OF THE ZUMBRO BASIN.

FROST DEPTH IS VERY SHALLOW...6 INCHES OR LESS...WITH MANY AREAS
HAVING NO FROST AT ALL.

AGAIN FOR THESE BASINS...THE FLOODING IMPACT WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
RUNOFF FROM THIS SNOW MELT...AND ALSO ON FUTURE PRECIPITATION EVENTS
DURING MARCH AND APRIL. OVERALL...THERE REMAINS A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING.


*** BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVER BASINS IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ***

THE RECORD RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FALL...
COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THIS WINTER...IS KEEPING
STREAMFLOW LEVELS QUITE HIGH. STREAM FLOW CONTINUES TO BE AT OR
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINTER TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED 1 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW THE MEAN.

THE SNOW MELT THIS PAST WEEK DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES IS HELPING
TO REDUCE THE OVERALL SNOW DEPTH...BUT THE WATER FROM THIS SNOW IS
STILL REMAINING IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE SNOW PACK.  SOME HAS BEEN
RELEASED AS RUNOFF...BUT THIS WATER IS NOT BEING SEEN IN THE RIVERS
SO FAR.

CURRENT SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS A FEW INCHES IN THE
HILLY TERRAIN...UP TO AS MUCH AS A FOOT IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF
THESE BASINS. LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT IN THIS SNOW RANGES FROM AN
INCH OR LESS TO AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS UP NEAR 4 OR 5
INCHES IN THE UPPER PART OF THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THESE BASINS
REMAINS ABOVE OR EVEN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THIS SPRING.


*** WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN AND TRIBUTARIES INCLUDING THE KICKAPOO ***

AFTER THE WET FALL AND SIGNIFICANT WINTER SNOWFALL...MONTHLY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW REMAINED MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WINTER. WINTER
TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WITH SNOWMELT IN PROGRESS DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS PAST
WEEK...CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH
UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THE CURRENT AVERAGE SNOW DEPTH ACROSS THE
AREA RANGES FROM A FEW INCHES UP TO ABOUT 8 INCHES.

FROST DEPTHS ARE VERY SHALLOW...6 INCHES OR LESS...WITH MANY AREAS
NOT HAVING ANY FROST.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY RUNOFF
FROM THE CURRENT SNOW MELT...AND ALSO ON FUTURE RAIN OR SNOW EVENTS.
OVERALL...THERE REMAINS AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR FLOODING.


*** MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LAKE CITY MINNESOTA TO GUTTENBERG IOWA ***

AFTER A VERY WET FALL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN...PRECIPITATION WAS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN DECEMBER AS WELL.

CURRENT SNOW DEPTH IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RANGES FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES UP TO AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES. LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENT IN THIS SNOW RANGES FROM AN INCH OR LESS...UP TO
AROUND 3 INCHES.

BUT SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE EVEN HIGHER
FURTHER UPSTREAM IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BASIN...AS WELL AS THE MINNESOTA...SAINT CROIX...AND CHIPPEWA RIVER
BASINS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT REMAINS AS MUCH AS 5 TO 6 INCHES IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA...IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN...WITH WIDESPREAD 3
TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE UPSTREAM BASIN. AS THE SNOW
MELTS...RUNOFF WILL FLOW DOWNSTREAM...IMPACTING LEVELS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH OUR AREA.

CURRENT WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
A FOOT OR 2 ABOVE NORMAL. AS RUNOFF INCREASES...THERE IS LESS ROOM
FOR THE RIVER TO CARRY THIS WATER WITHOUT SPILLING INTO LOWLAND
AREAS.

FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ITSELF...IT WOULD BE SAFE TO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING...EVEN GIVEN IDEAL MELTING CONDITIONS.
BUT GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A VERY HIGH POTENTIAL
THAT WATER LEVELS COULD REACH MODERATE OR EVEN MAJOR CATEGORIES. FOR
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI...THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 20%
CHANCE THAT WATER LEVELS WILL END UP NEAR THE RECORD.

THUS THE OVERALL RISK FOR FLOODING THIS SPRING IS THUS MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD BE MAKING
CONTINGENCY PLANS NOW TO DEAL WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR FLOODING
BY LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL.


...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE OUTLOOK TABLE BELOW WILL SHOW THE PROBABILITY FOR FLOODING AT
SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE...WITH ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COMPUTER
MODEL SIMULATIONS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF
THE MONTH.

HOWEVER...LONGER RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUGGESTING A RETURN TO COOLER
WEATHER AGAIN FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. IF THIS DOES TRANSPIRE...WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT SNOW COVER LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MONTH
OF MARCH.

AS IS THE CASE EVERY YEAR...THE SEVERITY OF ANY SPRING SNOWMELT
FLOODING DEPENDS GREATLY ON WEATHER CONDITIONS. OBVIOUSLY...
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OR RAINFALL WILL ONLY ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF
WATER AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF. SEVERAL OTHER FACTORS...INCLUDING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS...AND HOW FAST THE SNOW
MELTS...WILL PLAY INTO THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME. IN GENERAL...THE LONGER
WE HOLD ON TO SNOW COVER...THE HIGHER THE CHANCE WE WILL SEE A RAPID
WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES. RAPID WARMUPS RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF.
PLUS...THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IN SHORTER TIME
PERIODS. A COMBINATION OF RAPID MELTING PLUS RAINFALL WOULD BE A
WORST-CASE SCENARIO FOR THE HIGHEST FLOODING LEVELS.  IT WOULD BE
MUCH PREFERRED TO HAVE A SLOW-MELT SCENARIO...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OR 40S...AND NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING.

WITH THESE THINGS IN MIND...IT WOULD BE VERY PRUDENT TO PLAN FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING WELL AHEAD OF TIME. TAKE ACTIONS AND
PRECAUTIONS NOW TO PROTECT PROPERTY AND INTERESTS. IF YOU ARE
CONSIDERING THE PURCHASE OF FLOOD INSURANCE...TIME IS RUNNING OUT.
THERE IS A 30-DAY WAIT PERIOD BEFORE ANY PURCHASED INSURANCE GOES
INTO EFFECT.


...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS...

THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR
RIVER BASINS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS OUTLOOK IS DIVIDED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE
FOR HIGH WATER...AND ONE FOR LOW WATER.

A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE
FORECASTS IS GIVEN AT THE END OF THIS OUTLOOK.

IN THE FIRST TABLE BELOW FOR HIGH WATER...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT
COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED
STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AT LA CROSSE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS
THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE REACHING 19.2 FEET.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID  2/22/2011 - 5/23/2011

LOCATION FS(FT)   90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%

BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE  18  10.2  11.1  11.9  12.7  13.2  13.7  14.3  14.7  16.0
BLK RVR FLS  47  45.4  47.1  49.1  50.5  51.6  52.4  53.4  54.8  55.9
GALESVILLE   12  11.5  12.3  12.9  13.2  13.6  13.8  14.1  14.5  14.9

CEDAR RIVER
LANSING      18  15.3  15.7  16.0  16.3  16.5  17.0  17.7  18.3  19.3
AUSTIN       15   9.7  10.5  10.9  11.5  11.8  13.2  14.4  14.6  17.4
CHARLES CTY  12   9.6  10.1  10.5  11.2  11.7  13.4  14.3  15.4  18.6

TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN       10   9.4   9.7  10.2  10.8  11.1  12.3  13.5  14.8  16.0

KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE     12   9.8  10.3  10.7  11.1  11.3  11.6  11.8  12.4  13.0
VIOLA        14  14.5  14.7  15.0  15.2  15.3  15.7  15.8  16.4  17.3
READSTOWN    11  11.5  11.8  12.0  12.3  12.5  12.7  13.0  13.4  13.9
SLDRS GROVE  13  13.0  13.3  13.5  13.9  14.0  14.3  14.5  15.0  16.1
GAYS MILLS   13  13.7  14.0  14.1  14.4  14.5  14.8  15.1  16.0  16.5
STEUBEN      12  12.5  12.8  12.9  13.1  13.2  13.4  13.6  14.2  14.5

MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY    16  17.5  18.4  18.9  19.4  20.1  20.2  20.9  21.7  24.1
WABASHA      12  14.8  15.7  16.2  16.8  17.4  17.6  18.2  19.0  22.1
ALMA         16  14.5  15.4  16.0  16.6  17.3  17.5  18.3  19.1  21.9
DAM 5        MM 662.2 663.4 664.1 664.8 665.5 665.7 666.6 667.3 670.1
DAM 5A       MM 658.0 659.2 660.0 660.7 661.3 661.5 662.3 662.9 665.3
WINONA       13  16.6  17.9  18.6  19.2  19.7  19.9  20.3  20.6  21.9
TREMPEALEAU  MM 649.3 650.1 650.6 651.0 651.4 651.6 652.1 652.6 654.5
LA CRESCENT  MM 642.9 643.6 644.4 645.0 645.3 645.7 646.4 647.2 650.5
LA CROSSE    12  13.8  14.3  14.9  15.5  15.9  16.3  16.8  17.3  19.2
GENOA        MM 633.9 634.6 635.3 636.1 636.5 637.1 637.5 638.4 641.0
LANSING      18  16.8  17.7  18.7  19.7  20.0  20.8  21.2  22.3  24.8
LYNXVILLE    MM 627.2 628.1 629.2 630.3 630.7 631.7 632.3 633.9 637.8
MCGREGOR     16  20.0  21.4  22.9  23.9  24.6  25.4  26.3  28.6  31.7
GUTTENBERG   15  17.2  18.3  19.5  20.3  20.9  21.5  22.4  25.2  27.1

ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON      15  11.0  12.3  13.1  13.7  14.3  15.0  15.4  16.1  16.7

SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER
HILLSBORO    13   7.4   9.1  10.3  11.2  11.8  12.2  12.4  12.7  13.3

SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO    12   6.5   7.1   7.7   8.1   8.7   9.3  10.5  11.8  14.6

TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE         9  10.3  10.5  10.8  11.0  11.3  11.3  11.5  11.9  12.3

TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER      12  10.1  10.6  10.9  11.1  11.6  12.1  13.3  14.8  19.7
GARBER       17  12.6  13.8  14.4  14.8  15.6  16.3  19.2  21.3  23.8

UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH      12   6.4   6.9   7.5   8.0   8.4   8.8   9.4  10.1  11.4
DORCHESTER   14  12.5  13.1  14.0  14.3  15.0  15.9  16.4  17.5  19.0

WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA       9   6.0   6.8   7.8   8.0   8.4   9.2   9.6  10.5  11.9

ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS   18  14.3  15.3  16.1  16.9  18.3  19.1  20.8  22.9  26.5

SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER    14   8.5   9.0   9.4  10.0  10.7  11.3  12.4  14.5  15.8


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH
LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE NORMALLY ISSUED NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. HOWEVER DURING THE
SPRING...THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED ON A SEPARATE SCHEDULE AND ARE
INCLUDED WITH ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION.

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE LA CROSSE NWS INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE (LOWER CASE).

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER
FORECAST CENTER WEBSITE AT

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC


THE NEXT FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON MARCH 3RD.

$$

WELVAERT


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