National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1020 AM CST THU MAR 3 2011

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3..

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF PLANNED FLOOD
OUTLOOKS PROVIDING FLOOD POTENTIAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION
FOR THIS COMING SPRING. THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION WHICH WAS
COLLECTED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES...INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /USACE/...
MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER /MRCC/...AND THE NATIONAL
OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER /NOHRSC/.

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONCERNS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.


*** FLOOD POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS ***

...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE POTENTIAL ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ITSELF...

OVERALL...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED A SMALL AMOUNT ACROSS
THE REGION SINCE OUR LAST OUTLOOK ISSUED IN MID-FEBRUARY. THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ITSELF REMAINS THE GREATEST CONCERN...WITH A VERY
HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR FLOODING AT LEAST REACHING THE MODERATE LEVEL.
MAJOR OR EVEN RECORD FLOODING IS VERY POSSIBLE.

IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WE HAD A FEW PERIODS OF MILD WEATHER...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THE SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT TO
DECREASE.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE ALSO HAD A COUPLE MORE SNOW STORMS TO
ADD MORE SNOW ONCE AGAIN. SINCE THE OUTLOOK ISSUED ON FEBRUARY
17TH...THE OVERALL SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT IS EQUAL TO OR
HIGHER THAN IT WAS A FEW WEEKS AGO.

CREEKS AND RIVERS DID SEE SMALL RISES AS A RESULT OF THE BRIEF WARM
SPELLS. BUT NO FLOODING WAS SEEN. OVERALL...WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE FIRST 2 WEEKS OF MARCH...THE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS IS NOT THE OPTIMAL SCENARIO FOR REDUCING THE
FLOOD RISK THIS SPRING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL ONLY
ADD TO HOW MUCH WATER IS AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF.  AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN THAT MUCH OF THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. ALSO...COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MELTING THAT CAN OCCUR.

AS WE NEAR SPRING...THE LIKELIHOOD THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE 50S OR WARMER INCREASES.  IF WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE SNOW COVER INTO THE LATTER PART OF MARCH...OR EVEN INTO
APRIL...THESE RAPID WARM-UPS WOULD RESULT IN RAPID MELTING OF THE
SNOW.  AND THAT CAN LEAD TO MORE RAPID RISES IN CREEKS AND RIVERS.
AND TYPICALLY WITH THESE RAPID WARM-UPS...WE SEE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ONLY ADD TO THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.

HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW MELTS WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN FLOODING THIS
SPRING...ESPECIALLY ON THE TRIBUTARY STREAMS.

GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE PROBABILITY FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE NEXT 30 TO 90 DAYS IS QUITE ELEVATED.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ITSELF.  PLEASE REFER TO THE OUTLOOK
INFORMATION BELOW FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.


HERE IS A TABLE OF FLOOD POTENTIAL CATEGORICAL PROBABILITIES AND
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...VALID 3/7/2011 - 6/5/2011

                                                           DEP FROM
                        ---------FLOOD STAGES---------      NORMAL
                         MINOR     MODERATE    MAJOR     OF REACHING
 LOCATION               STG  PCT   STG  PCT   STG  PCT   FLOOD STAGE

BLACK RIVER
 NEILLSVILLE             18   8%    20   1%    22  ---   NEAR NORMAL
 BLACK RIVER FALLS       47  95%    51  80%    55  26%   34% GREATER
 GALESVILLE              12  95%    13  85%    15  13%   34% GREATER

CEDAR RIVER
 LANSING                 18  32%    20   9%    22  ---   27% GREATER
 AUSTIN                  15  27%    18  11%    20   1%   22% GREATER
 CHARLES CITY            12  59%    15  31%    18  16%   45% GREATER

TURTLE CREEK
 AUSTIN                10.5  88%    12  63%    14  44%   69% GREATER

KICKAPOO RIVER
 LA FARGE                12  63%    13  42%    14   8%   62% GREATER
 VIOLA                   14 >98%    17  39%    20   1%   72% GREATER
 READSTOWN               11 >98%    15  34%    17   1%   67% GREATER
 SOLDIERS GROVE          13 >98%    16  34%    19   3%   79% GREATER
 GAYS MILLS              13 >98%    15  70%    17  19%   61% GREATER
 STEUBEN                 12 >98%    13 >98%    15  16%   67% GREATER

MISSISSIPPI RIVER
 LAKE CITY               16 >98%    18  88%    20  75%   71% GREATER
 WABASHA                 12 >98%    14 >98%    16  86%   44% GREATER
 ALMA DAM 4              16  85%    17  77%    18  63%   78% GREATER
 MINNESOTA CITY DAM 5   660 >98%   662  96%   665  80%   67% GREATER
 WINONA DAM 5A          656 >98%   659  88%   661  80%   71% GREATER
 WINONA                  13 >98%    15 >98%    18  88%   55% GREATER
 TREMPEALEAU DAM 6      647 >98%   649 >98%   651  82%   64% GREATER
 LA CRESCENT DAM 7      641 >98%   643  95%   645  82%   64% GREATER
 LA CROSSE               12 >98%    13 >98%  15.5  82%   61% GREATER
 GENOA DAM 8            631 >98%   634  95%   636  82%   50% GREATER
 LANSING                 18  88%    19  83%    20  78%   81% GREATER
 LYNXVILLE DAM 9        625 >98%   628  91%   631  77%   67% GREATER
 MCGREGOR                16 >98%    20 >98%    23  86%   49% GREATER
 GUTTENBERG DAM 10       15 >98%    18  95%    21  78%   55% GREATER

ROOT RIVER
 HOUSTON                 15  72%    17   9%    18  ---   58% GREATER

SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER
 HILLSBORO               13  13%    14  ---    16  ---    6% GREATER

SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
 LANESBORO               12  44%    16   9%    18  ---   37% GREATER

TREMPEALEAU RIVER
 DODGE                    9 >98%    11  83%    12  34%   61% GREATER

TURKEY RIVER
 ELKADER                 12  39%    16  16%    20   6%   NEAR NORMAL
 GARBER                  17  34%    20  19%    23  16%   NEAR NORMAL

UPPER IOWA RIVER
 DECORAH                 12   6%    13   1%    14   1%   NEAR NORMAL
 DORCHESTER HWY 76       14  85%    17  29%    19  13%   53% GREATER

WISCONSIN RIVER
 MUSCODA                  9  42%    10  21%    11  16%   18% GREATER

ZUMBRO RIVER
 ZUMBRO FALLS            18  85%    24  47%    26  39%   78% GREATER

SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
 ROCHESTER - 37TH ST     14  52%    18  18%    20   3%   49% GREATER


STG = STAGE (FEET)
PCT = PERCENT
--- = DISTRIBUTION COMPLETELY BELOW THIS STAGE
DEP = DEPARTURE



*** CEDAR RIVER BASIN FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA ***

AFTER THE WET FALL AND SIGNIFICANT WINTER SNOWFALL...STREAMFLOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

CURRENT SNOW DEPTH IS FROM 5 TO 13 INCHES IN THE MINNESOTA PART OF
THE UPPER CEDAR RIVER BASIN...WITH 6 OR LESS IN NORTHERN IOWA. WATER
CONTENT OF THAT SNOW COVER RANGES FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA PART OF THE BASIN...TO 2 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS THE IOWA
PORTION.

FROST DEPTHS CONTINUE TO BE VERY SHALLOW...6 INCHES OR LESS...WITH
MANY AREAS NOT HAVING ANY FROST.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY HOW
QUICKLY THE SNOW MELTS...AS WELL AS FUTURE RAIN OR SNOW EVENTS.
OVERALL...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN
THIS BASIN.


*** TURKEY AND UPPER IOWA RIVER BASINS IN NORTHEAST IOWA ***

AFTER THE WET FALL AND SIGNIFICANT WINTER SNOWFALL...STREAMFLOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

CURRENT SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 2 TO 10 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MINNESOTA BORDER. LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THAT SNOW RANGES FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES NEAR THE MINNESOTA BORDER...TO
AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

FROST DEPTH IS VERY SHALLOW...6 INCHES OR LESS...WITH MANY AREAS
HAVING NO FROST AT ALL.

FOR THESE BASINS...FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN BY HOW QUICKLY
THE SNOW MELTS...AS WELL AS ANY FUTURE PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
OVERALL...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE FOR MINOR
FLOODING THIS SPRING.


*** ZUMBRO AND ROOT RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ***

THE OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS VERY WET AFTER THE RECORD FLOODING
LAST FALL. AND OVER THE WINTER...WE SAW VERY SNOWY CONDITIONS...WITH
THE SNOWIEST 3-MONTH WINTER PERIOD EVER RECORDED AT ROCHESTER. RIVER
AND CREEK LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

CURRENT SNOW DEPTH ACROSS THESE BASINS RUNS FROM 5 OR 6 INCHES UP TO
AS MUCH AS 13 OR 14 INCHES. LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT IN THIS SNOW
PACK RANGES FROM ABOUT 2 INCHES UP TO AT MUCH AS 5 INCHES.

FROST DEPTH IS VERY SHALLOW...6 INCHES OR LESS...WITH MANY AREAS
HAVING NO FROST AT ALL.

AGAIN FOR THESE BASINS...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW MELTS...AND WHAT FUTURE PRECIPITATION EVENTS
OCCUR DURING MARCH AND APRIL. OVERALL...THERE IS AN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING.


*** BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVER BASINS IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ***

THE RECORD RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FALL WAS
FOLLOWED BY A VERY SNOWY WINTER SEASON. RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

CURRENT SNOW DEPTH VARIES ACROSS THESE BASINS...RANGING FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES...UP TO AS MUCH AS 16 TO 20 INCHES IN THE UPPER REACHES OF
THESE BASINS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM ABOUT 2 INCHES...UP
TO AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES IN SPOTS.

FROST DEPTH IS VERY SHALLOW...6 INCHES OR LESS...WITH MANY AREAS
HAVING NO FROST AT ALL.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THESE
BASINS REMAINS ABOVE OR EVEN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THIS SPRING. THE
MAGNITUDE OF FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW
MELTS...AND ON ANY FUTURE PRECIPITATION. MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING
LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE.


*** WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN AND TRIBUTARIES INCLUDING THE KICKAPOO ***

AFTER THE WET FALL AND SIGNIFICANT WINTER SNOWFALL...STREAMFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

CURRENT SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM ABOUT 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE KICKAPOO BASIN...WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 INCHES IN THE
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN.  WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THAT SNOW PACK RANGES FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE KICKAPOO BASIN...
TO 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE UPPER WISCONSIN BASIN.

FROST DEPTH REMAINS SHALLOW...6 INCHES OR LESS...WITH MANY AREAS NOT
HAVING ANY FROST.

FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE KICKAPOO AND OTHER TRIBUTARIES TO THE
WISCONSIN RIVER WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY ON HOW QUICKLY THE CURRENT
SNOW MELTS...AS WELL AS ANY FUTURE PRECIPITATION EVENTS. DEPENDING
ON HOW FAST THAT OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MINOR
OR PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING. FOR THE WISCONSIN RIVER ITSELF...THERE
IS A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING.


*** MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LAKE CITY MINNESOTA TO GUTTENBERG IOWA ***

IT WAS A VERY WET FALL AND SNOWY WINTER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...WATER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING HIGH ALL WINTER. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE SPRING.

CURRENT SNOW DEPTH IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RANGES FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES FROM GUTTENBERG AND PRAIRIE DU CHIEN UP
TOWARD GENOA. FURTHER NORTH...DEPTHS OF 8 TO AS MUCH AS 14 INCHES
ARE SEEN UP NEAR LAKE PEPIN. LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT IN THIS SNOW
RANGES FROM AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH...UP TO 3 OR 3.5 INCHES NORTH.

BUT SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES CONTINUE TO BE EVEN
HIGHER FURTHER UPSTREAM IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE MINNESOTA...SAINT CROIX...AND CHIPPEWA
RIVER BASINS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN REPORTED TO BE AS MUCH
AS 6 TO 8 INCHES IN WESTERN MINNESOTA IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER
BASIN...WITH WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPSTREAM BASIN. AS THE SNOW MELTS...THE RESULTING RUNOFF WILL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM...IMPACTING LEVELS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI THROUGH OUR
AREA.

FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ITSELF...IT IS VIRTUALLY A GUARANTEE THAT
WATER LEVELS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE ALL THROUGH THE REGION...EVEN
GIVEN IDEAL MELTING CONDITIONS. BUT WITH THE CONDITIONS UPSTREAM...
THERE REMAINS A VERY HIGH POTENTIAL THAT WATER LEVELS COULD REACH
MODERATE OR EVEN MAJOR CATEGORIES. FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI...THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 20 TO 40% CHANCE THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL END UP NEAR THE RECORD.

THUS THE OVERALL RISK FOR FLOODING THIS SPRING IS THUS MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD BE HAVE PLANS IN
PLACE NOW ON HOW TO DEAL WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR FLOODING
STARTING IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL...AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF APRIL AND INTO MAY.


...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE OUTLOOK TABLE BELOW WILL SHOW THE PROBABILITY FOR FLOODING AT
SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COMPUTER MODEL
SIMULATIONS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE UNITED STATES IN THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH IS EXPECTED TO SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AS IS THE CASE EVERY YEAR...THE SEVERITY OF ANY SPRING SNOWMELT
FLOODING DEPENDS GREATLY ON WEATHER CONDITIONS. OBVIOUSLY...
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OR RAINFALL WILL ONLY ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF
WATER AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF. SEVERAL OTHER FACTORS...INCLUDING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT MONTH...AND HOW FAST THE SNOW MELTS...
WILL PLAY INTO THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME. IN GENERAL...THE LONGER WE HOLD
ON TO SNOW COVER...THE HIGHER THE CHANCE WE WILL SEE A RAPID WARMUP
OF TEMPERATURES. RAPID WARMUPS RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF. PLUS...THERE
IS ALSO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IN SHORTER TIME PERIODS. A
COMBINATION OF RAPID MELTING PLUS RAINFALL WOULD BE A WORST-CASE
SCENARIO FOR THE HIGHEST FLOODING LEVELS.  IT WOULD BE MUCH
PREFERRED TO HAVE A SLOW-MELT SCENARIO...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S OR 40S...AND NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING.

WITH THESE THINGS IN MIND...IT WOULD BE VERY PRUDENT TO PLAN FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING AHEAD OF TIME. TAKE ACTIONS AND PRECAUTIONS
NOW TO PROTECT PROPERTY AND INTERESTS. IF YOU ARE CONSIDERING THE
PURCHASE OF FLOOD INSURANCE...TIME IS RUNNING OUT.  THERE IS A
30-DAY WAIT PERIOD BEFORE ANY PURCHASED INSURANCE GOES INTO EFFECT.


...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS...

THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR
RIVER BASINS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS OUTLOOK IS DIVIDED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE
FOR HIGH WATER...AND ONE FOR LOW WATER.

A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE
FORECASTS IS GIVEN AT THE END OF THIS OUTLOOK.

IN THE FIRST TABLE BELOW FOR HIGH WATER...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT
COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED
STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AT LA CROSSE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS
THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE REACHING 19.2 FEET.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID  3/7/2011 - 6/5/2011


LOCATION FS(FT)   90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%

BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE  18  11.4  12.8  13.3  13.9  14.3  14.8  15.0  15.7  17.0
BLK RVR FLS  47  48.2  51.1  52.0  52.6  52.9  54.3  54.9  55.3  56.3
GALESVILLE   12  12.8  13.5  13.8  13.9  14.1  14.4  14.6  14.8  15.2

CEDAR RIVER
LANSING      18  15.9  16.3  16.4  16.9  17.2  17.7  18.2  18.8  20.0
AUSTIN       15  10.9  11.4  12.0  12.9  13.3  14.1  14.9  16.5  18.1
CHARLES CTY  12  10.0  10.5  11.2  11.9  12.6  13.7  15.4  16.9  18.9

TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN       10  10.3  11.2  11.8  12.6  13.5  14.3  15.4  15.9  17.2

KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE     12  11.2  11.6  11.9  12.3  12.7  13.1  13.5  13.7  13.9
VIOLA        14  15.2  15.6  15.8  16.2  16.7  17.0  17.4  18.1  18.8
READSTOWN    12  12.4  12.6  12.9  13.3  13.6  13.8  14.1  14.5  15.1
SLDRS GROVE  13  14.1  14.2  14.4  14.9  15.1  15.7  16.3  17.0  17.5
GAYS MILLS   13  14.6  14.7  15.1  15.7  16.0  16.2  16.6  17.1  17.8
STEUBEN      12  13.3  13.4  13.5  13.9  14.1  14.2  14.4  14.9  15.5

MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY    16  18.0  19.6  20.3  20.9  21.6  22.0  22.5  23.1  24.3
WABASHA      12  15.3  17.0  17.7  18.2  18.9  19.4  20.0  20.8  22.3
ALMA         16  15.1  16.8  17.6  18.2  19.0  19.4  20.1  20.7  22.0
DAM 5        MM 663.0 665.1 665.7 666.4 667.3 667.8 668.4 669.0 670.4
DAM 5A       MM 658.8 661.0 661.6 662.1 662.8 663.3 663.8 664.3 665.5
WINONA       13  17.5  19.4  19.9  20.2  20.6  20.8  21.1  21.4  22.0
TREMPEALEAU  MM 649.9 651.2 651.6 652.0 652.5 652.9 653.4 653.7 654.6
LA CRESCENT  MM 643.7 645.3 645.8 646.3 647.3 647.9 648.9 649.4 650.6
LA CROSSE    12  14.4  15.9  16.4  16.8  17.3  17.7  18.2  18.5  19.2
GENOA        MM 634.7 636.4 637.1 637.6 638.4 638.9 639.7 640.2 641.3
LANSING      18  17.9  20.0  20.7  21.3  22.3  22.8  23.5  24.1  25.1
LYNXVILLE    MM 628.3 630.7 631.5 632.4 633.9 634.7 635.7 636.7 638.3
MCGREGOR     16  22.5  24.7  25.5  26.7  27.6  28.4  29.9  30.6  32.4
GUTTENBERG   15  19.2  21.0  21.7  22.8  23.6  24.6  25.9  26.4  27.7

ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON      15  13.2  14.6  15.3  15.6  16.0  16.4  16.6  16.8  17.1

SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER
HILLSBORO    13   9.0  11.7  12.0  12.1  12.2  12.4  12.6  12.8  13.5

SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO    12   8.3   8.6   9.1  10.0  11.2  12.5  13.4  14.7  16.0

TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE         9  10.8  11.1  11.2  11.4  11.6  11.8  12.1  12.3  12.5

TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER      12  10.0  10.4  11.0  11.2  11.7  12.0  12.9  14.8  19.0
GARBER       17  12.7  13.4  14.2  14.8  15.3  16.5  17.8  21.2  24.1

UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH      12   7.4   7.9   8.2   8.6   9.2   9.5  10.1  10.9  11.8
DORCHESTER   14  13.5  14.3  15.0  15.3  15.8  16.2  17.0  18.1  19.2

WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA       9   7.5   8.1   8.4   8.8   9.2   9.7  10.0  10.7  11.7

ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS   18  17.1  19.6  19.9  22.1  23.4  26.0  27.6  28.7  31.4

SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER    14   9.7  10.8  11.4  13.0  14.3  15.6  16.4  17.7  18.9


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH
LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE NORMALLY ISSUED NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. HOWEVER DURING THE
SPRING...THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED ON A SEPARATE SCHEDULE AND ARE
INCLUDED WITH ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION.

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE LA CROSSE NWS INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE (LOWER CASE).

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER
FORECAST CENTER WEBSITE AT

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC

ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS MAY BE ISSUED ON MARCH 10TH AND 
24TH DEPENDING ON WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FLOOD FORECAST NEEDS. 


$$

WELVAERT