The January Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook has been issued. While there is not a full in-depth look at the spring snowmelt flooding potential in this outlook, there is a quick "first look" provided. In short, overall, the threat looks to be normal or even below normal this year. The first full spring snowmelt flood potential outlook will be issued February 16th.
We have been having below-normal precipitation for the past several months, and the snowfall so far this winter has also been on the light side. Thus, the spring snowmelt flooding risk at this point appears to be lower than normal.
A quick reference map for the risk of Minor, Moderate or Major flood levels can be found at: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc/
This map shows that the majority of forecast locations in the local area are highlighted in blue, which is a 0 to 20% risk of flooding through the end of April. Only a few have a higher probability for flooding, between 20% and 40%. (If you recall, this scenario is quite different from this time last year when we were already showing a significant threat for snowmelt flooding at many locations due to the above normal fall precipitation and above normal winter precipitation through the end of December 2010.)
Also of note: Flood Safety Awareness Week is March 12 – 16th, 2012. Our office will issue a daily Public Information Statement (PNS) with information on a specific topic regarding flooding and/or flood safety. The National Flood Safety Awareness webpage is http://www.floodsafety.noaa.