Flood Potential Outlook for Missouri and James

 HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
0930 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

...MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASIN OUTLOOKS FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
JAMES RIVER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
VALID THROUGH THE LAST WEEK OF MAY 2009.

                 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
                   VALID 3/02/2009 - 5/31/2009

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...

THE LATEST THREE-MONTH CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...FOR THE MONTHS OF MARCH THROUGH MAY SHOWS AN
EQUAL CHANCE FOR HIGHER OR LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A
SIMILAR EQUAL CHANCE FOR HIGHER OR LOWER THAN NORMAL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. THESE OUTLOOKS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE INTERNET AT:

                   HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ADEQUATE MOISTURE ALREADY EXISTS IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA CAPABLE OF CREATING SUFFICIENT RUNOFF TO BRIEFLY CREATE HIGH
WATER IN EVEN SMALL WATERSHEDS NOT LISTED IN THIS FORECAST.  EVEN SMALL
WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF A RAPID MELT OF
THE SNOWPACK WERE TO OCCUR, OR DURING TIMES OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AND EVEN MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AS THIS CAN SPEED THE MELTING OF
THE SNOWPACK.

BELOW IS TABLE 1 WHICH SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE.
FOR MORE DETAILS SUCH AS CHANCES OF EXCEEDING CERTAIN STAGES AT
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS REFER TO TABLE 2.

    TABLE 1. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
             IN THE BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

                  VALID 3/02/2009 - 5/31/2009

                                     CHANCE
LOCATION               FS (FT)       EXCEEDING FS
--------               ------        ----------
LITTLE MUDDY RIVER
WILLISTON 10NE         10        GREATER THAN 60%
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER
MARMARTH               18           LESS THAN 10%
MEDORA                 15           LESS THAN 10%
WATFORD CITY           20           LESS THAN 10%
SPRING CREEK
ZAP                    14        GREATER THAN 90%
KNIFE RIVER
MANNING                15           LESS THAN 10%
HAZEN 1S               21        GREATER THAN 50%
HEART RIVER
MANDAN 3W              17           LESS THAN 10%
APPLE CREEK
MENOKEN 6W             15            EQUAL TO 70%
JAMES RIVER
GRACE CITY 3W          12        GREATER THAN 60%
LAMOURE                14           LESS THAN 20%
LUDDEN 5SW             12        GREATER THAN 70%
PIPESTEM CREEK
PINGREE 3W              9        GREATER THAN 90%
CANNONBALL RIVER
REGENT                 22           LESS THAN 10%
BREIEN                 10           LESS THAN 30%
CEDAR CREEK
RALEIGH 19S            12           LESS THAN 10%

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS GIVE THE
PROBABILITY OF THE RIVER AT A GIVEN LOCATION RISING TO THE INDICATED
STAGE LEVELS WITHIN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.

EXAMPLE: APPLE CREEK NEAR MENOKEN HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET. IN
THE NEXT THREE MONTHS THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE CREEK
WILL RISE TO 15.0 FEET...BUT ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL
RISE TO 17.3 FEET.

   TABLE 2. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE
            BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                           ALL STAGES ARE IN FEET
                         VALID 3/02/2009 - 5/31/2009

LOCATION   FS (FT)   90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%   10%
_______    ______    ___    ___    ___    ___    ___    ___    ___    ___   ___
LITTLE MUDDY RIVER
WILLISTON 10NE 10    8.2    8.4    9.0   10.2   11.0   11.5   12.1   12.4   13.3

LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER
MARMARTH ND    18    2.3    3.0    4.2    4.7    5.2    5.7    6.7    8.4   11.6
MEDORA ND      15    3.2    3.9    4.8    5.4    5.8    6.3    7.1    8.7   11.7
WATFORD CITY   20    3.6    4.6    5.3    5.5    5.9    6.2    7.0    7.8   11.9

SPRING CREEK
ZAP ND         14   15.6   16.5   16.7   18.4   18.9   19.7   20.1   20.6   21.4

KNIFE RIVER
MANNING        15    7.3    7.4    8.0    8.5    8.6    9.3   10.0   11.0   12.1
HAZEN ND 1S    21   15.3   16.4   18.5   20.0   21.7   23.1   23.8   24.3   25.7

HEART RIVER
MANDAN 3W      17    2.5    3.0    4.0    4.5    5.5    6.5    7.2    8.3   12.3

APPLE CREEK
MENOKEN 6W     15   13.4   14.4   15.0   15.6   16.1   16.4   16.6   16.9   17.3

JAMES RIVER
GRACE CITY 3W  12   11.0   11.5   11.9   12.3   12.9   13.8   14.5   15.0   15.6
LAMOURE        14    9.0    9.3    9.6    9.8    9.9   10.4   10.8   11.3   15.5
LUDDEN 5SW     12   11.5   11.7   12.1   12.2   12.8   13.6   14.2   15.7   18.2

PIPESTEM CREEK
PINGREE 3W      9    8.2    8.4    8.5    8.7    9.0    9.2    9.6    9.9   10.6

CANNONBALL RIVER
REGENT         22    6.7    6.8    7.1    7.2    7.3    7.6    7.8    8.1    9.2
BREIEN         10    6.4    7.3    7.7    7.9    8.3    8.7    9.2   10.4   11.3

CEDAR CREEK
RALEIGH 19S    12    3.9    4.3    4.6    4.9    5.1    5.6    6.0    6.4    7.2

THE NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK REPRESENT
NATURAL FLOWS. THAT IS...FLOWS UNAFFECTED BY MAN-MADE STRUCTURES IN THE BASIN
SUCH AS DIVERSION DAMS AND RESERVOIRS.

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SNOW
COVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.
THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF STAGE...FLOW...AND VOLUME...AND
AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES FOR THE 90-DAY PERIOD. THESE OUTLOOKS AND EXPLANATIONS
THAT HELP IN THEIR INTERPRETATION ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

                  HTTP://WWW.GOV/BISMARCK

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL 16 RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE MISSOURI
AND JAMES RIVER BASINS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE. FIVE-DAY FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE WHEN THE RIVER AT A FORECAST POINT IS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE.

THE NEXT AHPS FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED THE LATTER PART OF MARCH 2009.

VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR MORE WEATHER AND FLOOD
INFORMATION.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.

$$
SCHLAG



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