Flood Potential Outlook for Souris

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2009

...SOURIS RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...
THIS OUTLOOK IS BEING REISSUED TO CORRECT THE CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE
FOR FOXHOLM IN TABLE 1.

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN
DRAINAGE SYSTEM OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...VALID THROUGH THE
LAST WEEK OF MAY 2009.
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...

                 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
               VALID 03 MARCH 2009 - 01 JUNE 2009

THE LATEST THREE-MONTH CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...FOR THE MONTHS OF MARCH THROUGH MAY SHOWS AN EQUAL
CHANCE FOR HIGHER OR LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A SIMILAR
EQUAL CHANCE FOR HIGHER OR LOWER THAN NORMAL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. THESE OUTLOOKS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE INTERNET AT:

                    HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV  

IN GENERAL ADEQUATE MOISTURE ALREADY EXISTS IN THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO CREATE FLOOD CONDITIONS
IN MOST WATERSHEDS.  EVEN SMALL WATERSHEDS NOT LISTED IN THIS
FORECAST SHOULD BE WATCHFUL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF A RAPID MELT
OF THE SNOWPACK WERE TO OCCUR, OR DURING TIMES OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND EVEN MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AS THIS CAN SPEED
THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK.


TABLE 1 SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. FOR MORE
DETAILS SUCH AS CHANCES OF EXCEEDING CERTAIN STAGES AT SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS REFER TO TABLE 2.

    TABLE 1. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
             IN THE BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

                 VALID 3/03/2009 - 6/01/2009
                                                       
                                                         DEPARTURE FROM
                                       CHANCE OF         NORMAL OF REACHING
LOCATION              FS (FT)         EXCEEDING FS       FLOOD STAGE
--------              -------         ---------          ------------------
DES LACS RIVER
 FOXHOLM               16                27%               23%

SOURIS RIVER
 SHERWOOD 15W          18                98%               72%
 FOXHOLM 3E            10                98%               42%
 MINOT 4NW             14                72%               60%
 MINOT BWY BRG       1549                30%               20%
 LOGAN                 34                83%               63%
 SAWYER                22                78%               64%
 VELVA               1505                83%               69%
 TOWNER 1W             52                98%               38%
 BANTRY 8E             11                98%               45%
 WESTHOPE 7NNE         10                98%               57%

WINTERING RIVER
 KARLSRUHE 5NE          7                98%               89%

WILLOW CREEK
 WILLOW CITY 7W        10                98%               68%

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS GIVE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER AT THE GIVEN LOCATION WOULD RISE ABOVE THE INDICATED STAGE LEVELS
WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

EXAMPLE: WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN
THE NEXT THREE MONTHS THERE IS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 13.5 FEET...BUT ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT
WILL RISE ABOVE 15.9 FEET.

     TABLE 2. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE
     BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

                         ALL STAGES ARE IN FEET
                      VALID 3/3/2009 - 6/1/2009

LOCATION   FS (FT)   90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
________   ______    ___    ___    ___    ___    ___    ___    ___    ___    ___
DES LACS RIVER
FOXHOLM       16     12.4   13.0   13.4   14.0   14.5   15.1   15.7   16.6  19.9

SOURIS RIVER
SHERWOOD 15W  18     20.1   21.3   22.0   22.4   22.7   23.0   23.4   23.8  24.5
FOXHOLM 3E    10     11.2   11.3   14.4   14.5   14.7   15.3   15.6   16.6  17.5
MINOT 4NW     14     11.2   12.4   14.1   14.7   15.8   17.1   18.7   20.5  21.1
MINOT BWY BR 1549 1543.9 1544.5 1545.4 1545.9 1546.6 1547.7 1549.1 1551.9 1553.5
LOGAN         36     33.0   34.6   35.8   36.0   36.7   36.9   37.2   37.7  37.9
SAWYER        22     20.3   21.7   23.1   23.5   24.4   24.8   25.2   25.8  26.2
VELVA        1505 1504.3 1505.7 1506.5 1506.8 1507.3 1507.6 1508.0 1509.2 1509.8
TOWNER 1NW    52     55.5   55.7   55.8   56.0   56.1   56.1   56.2   56.5  56.6
BANTRY 8E     11     13.3   13.5   13.6   13.8   13.9   14.0   14.0   14.5  14.8
WESTHOPE 7NNE 10     15.4   15.9   16.6   17.5   18.1   18.6   19.3   20.0  20.7

WINTERING RIVER
KARLSRUHE 5NE  7     9.3    9.6    9.8    9.9    9.9   10.1   10.2   10.4   10.8

WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 7W 10   13.5   13.8   14.1   14.2   14.5   14.8   15.1   15.4   15.9

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE PEAK RIVER FLOWS REACHED DURING A SERIES OF MODEL
RUNS USING EXISTING SOIL AND SNOWPACK MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH MORE THAN 30
YEARS OF HISTORICAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED DURING
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.  THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF STAGE...
FLOW...VOLUME...AND AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THESE OUTLOOKS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN THEIR INTERPRETATION ARE AVAILABLE
FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

                HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK 
    
TABLE 3 IS A FEATURE THAT PROVIDES PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR "HOW LOW COULD 
THE RIVER GO?" THIS FEATURE IS INCLUDED ON OUR AHPS WEB PAGES
FOR EACH FORECAST POINT IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN THAT HAS PROBABILISTIC
GRAPHICS PRODUCED FOR THEM. PROBABILISTIC LOW FLOW INFORMATION WILL PROVIDE
USEFUL INFORMATION DURING DROUGHTS...AND FOR RIVER USERS INTERESTED IN
FISHERIES...INDUSTRIAL DISCHARGES...DILUTION RATIOS...RECREATION...
IRRIGATION...AND NAVIGATION. IT WILL AID IN RISK ASSESSMENT DURING SITUATIONS
WHERE LOW FLOWS MAY BE CRITICAL TO OPERATIONS.

TABLE 3. CHANCES OF FALLING BELOW INDICATED STAGE AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE
BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

                         ALL STAGES ARE IN FEET
                       VALID 3/03/2009 - 6/01/2009

LOCATION    FS (FT)  10%    20%    30%    40%    50%    60%    70%    80%    90%
________    _______  ___    ___    ___    ___    ___    ___    ___    ___    ___

DES LACS RIVER
FOXHOLM       16     4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
  
SOURIS RIVER
SHERWOOD 15W  18     1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.1    1.1 
FOXHOLM 3E    10     4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7
MINOT 4NW     14     3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8
MINOT BWY BR 1549 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0
LOGAN         36    18.7   18.7   18.8   18.8   18.8   18.8   18.8   18.8   18.8
SAWYER        22     5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4
VELVA        1505 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0
TOWNER 1NW    52    43.2   43.2   43.2   43.2   43.2   43.2   43.2   43.2   43.2
BANTRY 8E     11     1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2
WESTHOPE 7NNE 10     4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5


WINTERING RIVER
KARLSRUHE 5NE  7     2.2    2.2    2.2    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3

WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 7W 10    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2

THE NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS REPRESENT
NATURAL FLOWS. THAT IS...FLOWS UNAFFECTED BY MAN-MADE STRUCTURES IN THE BASIN
SUCH AS DIVERSION DAMS AND RESERVOIRS.

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SNOW
COVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND ONE TO THREE MONTH LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS
CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. 

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL 13 RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE SOURIS RIVER
BASIN ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE. FIVE-DAY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE
WHEN THE RIVER AT A FORECAST POINT IS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THE NEXT AHPS FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED THE LATTER PART OF MARCH 2009.
 
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.

VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR MORE WEATHER AND
FLOOD INFORMATION.

 



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