La Nina Conditions Expected To Strengthen Over The Next Several Months
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
(issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS)
La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-11.
During July 2010 La Niña conditions developed, with sea surface temperatures cooling across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Dynamical and statistical climate models from around the world are used to track the progression of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Nearly all of these models predict La Niña to continue through early 2011. However, there is disagreement among the models over the eventual strength of La Niña. Most dynamical models generally predict a moderate-to-strong La Niña, while the majority of the statistical model forecasts indicate a weaker episode. Given the strong cooling in the equatorial Pacific east of the International date line observed over the last several months and the apparent ocean-atmosphere coupling (positive feedback), the dynamical model outcome of a moderate-to-strong episode is favored at this time. Therefore, La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere Winter 2010-11.
Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) web site (www.cpc.noaa.gov) (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin.
For the complete version of the latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued by CPC/NCEP go the following web site: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ .
Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304
In the next “news of the day” posting we will examine the historical impact of La Niña, especially moderate to strong events, on seasonal temperature and precipitation, and its commonly observed impact on wind and storm track patterns across northeast Colorado.
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Baker National Weather Service, Boulder, Colorado