According to statistics from the National Climatic Data Center, the chance of having a white Christmas over most of Southwest Kansas falls somewhere betwen 11% and 25%. A white Christmas is defined as having one inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. Put another way, on average, most of Southwest Kansas experiences a white Christmas somewhere between once and three times every ten years. There have been three official white Christmases in Dodge City in the last 20 years. They were 1990, 1992, and 2002.
Will 2009 be the next one? The latest forecasts call for snow over much of Southwest Kansas in the days leading up to Christmas and for cold weather to continue past Christmas, which should inhibit snowmelt. In other words, if we get an inch or more of snow before Christmas, it should still be there on Christmas morning. There are still a few days to go before we know for sure if we will get any snow or not, but 2009 is shaping up to have a much higher than normal chance for a white Christmas.
Tom Wright, Meteorologist, Dodge City, KS