Heavy Rain Falls From November 11-12, 2010

Widespread rainfall, some heavy, fell across a large part of the area from November 11th through the 12th.  Unfortunately an area of thunderstorms forming in the Texas panhandle caused the area of rainfall in Kansas to shift 30 to 50 miles east of what had been expected (see below).  Those areas west of the heavy rainfall received light amounts and some areas only got a sprinkle!   Such is the nature of weather across the high plains as there are just too many interactions and variables that prevent significant precipitation sometimes. 

The following map shows the area of rainfall (click on the map for a larger version)...

Map of the rainfall that fell November 11th through the 12th, 2010

The image below shows where it was believed that the precipitation field would form or initiate before spreading into southwest Kansas.  However, because of various interactions and areas of forcing (nearly impossible to forecast with precision), the precipitation formed 20 to 30 miles southeast of the anticipated area.  This very small error resulted in the widespread precipitation falling "off track", but only by 30 to 50 miles (and unfortunately this resulted in areas desperately needing moisture to miss out)...

Areas of expected initiation of precipitation and where it actually started

 

The area of rain and thunderstorms in the Texas Panhandle increased and shifted east, forcing the rainfall in Kansas to fall farther east...

The area of rain and thunderstorms increased in the Texas Panhandle

 

The image below shows computer model forecast precipitation that appeared to be accurate and believable superimposed on the actual area of rainfall...(click on the map for a larger version)...

Forecast precipitation in black contours superimposed on the actual rainfall amounts

Jeff Hutton - Warning Coordination Meteorologist

Aaaron Johnson, Science Operations Officer

 



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