The First Flakes May Fall: Early, Late, or Right on Time?

 It appears we're looking at a chance for the first flakes to fall this fall season across Kansas and Missouri into Thursday morning.  The average first flakes typically fall in Kansas City on November 28th.  However, the first 1" of snow normally takes a couple more weeks to occur, with an average date of December 13th.  The past 10 years have yielded varied results for when the first flakes fall, here's a quick glace at those numbers for Kansas City:

 

Year First Trace of Snow Year First 1" of Snow
2000 Dec 11 2000 Dec 13
2001 Jan 2 2001 Jan 18
2002 Dec 26 2002 Jan 15
2003 Dec 3 2003 Dec 8
2004 Nov 23 2004 No 24
2005 Dec 7 2005 Dec 7
2006 Nov 29 2006 Jan 20
2007 Nov 21 2007 Dec 6
2008 Nov 29 2008 Dec 16
2009 Nov 17 2009 Nov 17
2010 Nov 30 2010 Dec 11

 

Here is a short listing of cities across the Pleasant Hill forecast area and their average first trace and 1" of snow*.

 

City First Trace First 1"
Kirksville Dec 3 Dec 10
Clinton Dec 13 Dec 20
Tarkio Nov 27 Dec 7
Maryville Nov 30 Dec 14
Bethany Dec 2 Dec 14
Brookfield Dec 9 Dec 18
Richmond Dec 2 Dec 16
Moberly Dec 9 Dec 20
Pleasant Hill Dec 1 Dec 10
Paola Dec 5 Dec 18
Bonner Springs Dec 4 Dec 17
Stillwell, KS Dec 17 Dec 23
Sedalia Dec 12 Dec 24
Boonville Dec 10 Dec 19


*averages determined by observations of local cooperative observers



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