Spring Thaw Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
155 PM CST MON MAR 10 2014

...SPRING THAW PROGRESS FOR RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...

THE FINE SPRING WEATHER OF THIS EARLY WEEK PERIOD HAS INITIATED THE SPRING SNOWMELT PROCESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RED RIVER BASIN. THE LONGER DAYLIGHT AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE OF EARLY MARCH HAVE HELPED TO BRING TEMPERATURES NEARER SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN.

THUS FAR IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN... A DEEPER SNOWPACK HAS ACTED TO REFLECT MUCH OF THE INCREASED SOLAR ENERGY... LEADING TO A SLOWER OVERALL WARM UP... AND KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAINLY CAPPED IN THE 30S. SLIGHTLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LARGE SCALE MELTING AND RUNOFF... WHILE THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES TO WARM.

THUS FAR IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN... A MUCH SHALLOWER SNOWPACK AND LARGE PORTIONS OF EXPOSED SOIL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A GREATER OVERALL STORAGE OF THE INCREASED ENERGY ...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. HERE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL FALLEN BELOW FREEZING BUT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED. AS OF THIS MORNING...DITCHES AND SMALLER STREAMS WERE STILL LARGELY FILLED WITH SNOW AND/OR FROZEN MELT WATERS. SLIGHTLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LARGE SCALE RUNOFF PROCESSES... THOUGH SOME MINOR STREAM RISES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOCALIZED RUNOFF.

IN GENERAL... MOST RIVERS AND LAKES REMAIN COMPLETELY ICE COVERED WITH ICE THICKNESSES OF FROM 2 TO 3 FEET. GROUND FROST UNDER SNOW COVERED AREAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE LOWER 30 ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY... AND WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS DIPPING MOSTLY INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. SOME LIGHT DUSTINGS OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TONIGHT AND FOR THE WHOLE VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

AS IT GETS LATER INTO THE SPRING SNOWMELT SEASON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING WEATHER AND RIVER CONDITIONS.

 * FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS...AS WELL AS 7-DAY RIVER FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THAT FORECAST PERIOD.

THE 7-DAY FORECASTS ARE PRESENTED AS TEXT PRODUCTS OF DAILY RIVER STAGES AT ESTABLISHED RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS AND HYDROGRAPHS OF 6 HOUR RIVER STAGES FOR THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THESE GRAPHS AND TEXT PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:                   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" TAB ABOVE THE MAP OR THE LINK IN THE MENU ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE WEB PAGE.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.

WE WILL BE UPDATING THE SPRING THAW PROGRESS REPORTS PERIODICALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AS WE SEE CONDITIONS CHANGING OR UNTIL THE SNOWPACK MELTS.

$$
TEAM FGF



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