Text of Second 2008 Flood Outlook - March 7 2008

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1134 AM CST FRI MAR 07 2008

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THE FIRST SECTION OF THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH BASIN IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AS
WELL AS ITS CURRENT  HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS. THE SECOND SECTION
DOES THE SAME FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE THIRD SECTION GIVES A SUMMARY OF LARGER SCALE CONDITIONS AND
PROJECTIONS WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO THIS OUTLOOK.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 10, 2008 TO JUNE 16, 2008.
IT WILL BE UPDATED THROUGHOUT THE LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING PERIOD
AND COULD CHANGE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

ACTUAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND 7-DAY RIVER FORECASTS WILL ALSO BE ISSUED
DURING THE SPRING SNOWMELT PERIOD WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE
IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

SECTION 1.  THE RED RIVER BASIN...MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED.

MOST POINTS ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER CAN EXPECT SPRING SNOWMELT
FLOODING NEAR THE MINOR FLOOD LEVEL FOR THEIR AREA. MOST POINTS
ALONG THE TRIBUTARIES IN WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN EXPECT SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING NEAR TO BELOW THE MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL FOR THEIR AREA...AS INDICATED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE STAGE VALUES IN THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT
COLUMNS CORRESPOND TO THE CHANCES THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE
THOSE GIVEN STAGES FOR THAT RIVER LOCATION DURING THE VALID PERIOD.

EXAMPLE: THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RED RIVER AT
WAHPETON WILL RISE ABOVE 10.2 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
IT WILL RISE ABOVE 11.7 FEET.

                           RED RIVER BASIN
                   LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
                 VALID MARCH 10, 2008 - JUNE 16, 2008

      CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MAINSTEM RED RIVER LOCATIONS

LOCATION   FS(FT)   90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
--------     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
WAHPETON ND   10    8.5    9.0    9.4    9.8   10.2   10.9   11.2   11.4   11.7
FARGO ND      18   16.9   17.5   18.0   19.1   19.3   20.4   21.8   23.4   27.2
HALSTAD ND    26   12.9   14.0   15.4   16.7   18.2   19.5   21.0   23.8   25.6
GRAND FORKS   28   21.4   23.3   24.6   26.7   29.3   31.4   32.8   35.5   39.4
OSLO MN       26   20.2   23.1   24.5   27.1   29.8   31.2   32.2   33.2   33.9
DRAYTON ND    32   21.2   22.5   24.3   25.6   27.9   30.0   31.9   35.0   39.2
PEMBINA ND    42   31.3   32.8   34.7   36.4   39.9   42.1   42.8   44.9   46.0

      CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MINNESOTA TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS

LOCATION   FS(FT)   90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
--------     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
SO FORK BUFFALO RIVER...
SABIN         12   12.4   12.5   12.7   13.1   13.3   13.5   13.9   14.1   14.5
BUFFALO RIVER...
HAWLEY         7    5.2    5.8    6.0    6.4    6.9    7.6    7.9    8.2    9.0
DILWORTH      12   13.2   13.8   14.6   15.5   16.3   16.9   18.2   19.1   20.0
WILD RICE RIVER...
TWIN VALLEY   10    5.4    5.8    6.0    6.4    6.8    7.2    7.6    8.3    9.9
HENDRUM       20   14.2   16.1   17.0   18.2   19.1   20.0   22.1   24.5   28.6
MARSH RIVER...
SHELLY        14    7.2    8.0    8.5    8.7    9.9   10.3   11.1   12.1   14.1
SAND HILL RIVER...
CLIMAX        20    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.8    5.3    8.2    9.5   11.7   14.6
RED LAKE RIVER...
HIGHLANDING   12    9.2    9.3    9.4    9.6    9.7    9.7    9.9   10.0   10.1
CROOKSTON     15   10.8   11.8   12.7   13.7   14.1   14.8   16.1   17.4   21.3
SNAKE RIVER...
WARREN       845  842.4  842.5  842.6  842.7  842.7  842.8  842.9  843.1  843.8
ALVARADO     106  100.8  101.3  101.6  102.1  103.2  103.6  104.5  105.2  107.0
TWO RIVERS RIVER...
HALLOCK      802  802.4  803.4  804.4  805.1  805.5  806.1  806.5  807.5  808.7
ROSEAU RIVER...
ROSEAU        16    8.4    8.8    9.4   10.1   10.4   10.8   11.1   11.9   14.7

     CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS

LOCATION   FS(FT)   90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
--------     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
WILD RICE RIVER...
ABERCROMBIE   10    3.1    3.5    4.0    4.7    6.0    7.8    8.9   10.4   17.0
SHEYENNE RIVER...
VALLEY CITY   15    3.8    4.2    4.7    5.2    5.7    6.2    6.7    7.6    8.5
LISBON        11    3.1    3.6    4.1    5.1    5.5    5.9    6.5    7.4    9.6
KINDRED       16    3.8    4.5    5.7    6.9    7.1    7.7    8.2    9.4   13.6
HARWOOD      884  872.5  873.5  874.7  875.2  876.6  877.6  878.7  879.3  883.7
WEST FARGO    18   12.1   12.9   13.8   14.2   15.3   16.5   18.2   18.9   19.9
MAPLE RIVER...
ENDERLIN       9    4.9    5.3    6.1    6.5    7.0    8.0    8.4    9.3   10.3
MAPLETON     905  898.8  899.6  900.2  900.7  901.7  902.5  903.5  904.4  906.9
GOOSE RIVER...
HILLSBORO     10    3.9    4.2    4.3    4.5    4.9    5.6    6.0    7.1    8.8
FOREST RIVER...
MINTO          6    2.2    2.4    2.6    2.8    3.1    3.3    4.0    4.7    6.5
PARK RIVER...
GRAFTON       12    8.6    8.9    9.0    9.1    9.4   10.3   10.9   13.4   16.5
PEMBINA RIVER...
WALHALLA      11    4.7    5.2    5.5    5.9    6.4    6.7    7.8    9.5   11.4
NECHE         18    8.5    9.3    9.7   10.9   11.5   12.4   14.3   17.8   19.9

RED RIVER BASIN HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

TOPSOIL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LOW. IN EARLY NOVEMBER..PRIOR TO
SNOW COVER...NOAA SURVEY AIRCRAFT DETECTED ROUGHLY 20 TO 25
PERCENT SOIL MOISTURE IN THE UPPER 20 CM ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN.
SINCE THEN...WILKIN COUNTY REPORTS THE TOP FOOT OF SOIL IS BONE DRY
IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF MARCH 6TH...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS CHARACTERIZED THE
RED RIVER VALLEY AS ABNORMALLY DRY. HOWEVER...THE PALMER DROUGHT
INDEX FOR THE RED RIVER BASIN IS NEAR NORMAL. THE PALMER DROUGHT
INDEX TYPICALLY MEASURES DEEPER SOIL MOISTURE AND REFLECTS SOME
OF THE EXCESS MOISTURE ACCUMULATED FROM PRIOR WET YEARS.

SNOWPACK ACROSS THE BASIN IS NEAR NORMAL AND QUITE EXTENSIVE. THE
NORMAL WATER EQUIVALENT FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY RANGES FROM
TWO TO THREE INCHES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CURRENTLY THE
MODELED WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOWPACK IS JUST A LITTLE OVER TWO
INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE VALLEY. HENCE...THE WATER IN THE CURRENT
SNOWPACK IS ABOUT ONE HALF TO ONE INCH BELOW NORMAL.

WINTER TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS HAVE BEEN COLDER
THAN NORMAL. FOR THE PERIOD FROM DECEMBER 1ST TO MARCH 6TH...
GRAND FORKS HAS RECORDED 489 MORE HEATING DEGREE DAYS (HDD) THAN
NORMAL AND A SURPLUS OF 682 HDD FOR FARGO...INDICATING A GREATER
HEATING DEMAND FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. NORMAL VALUES FOR THE SAME
PERIOD ARE 5310 HDD FOR GRAND FORKS AND 4807 HDD FOR FARGO. LAST
YEAR THESE VALUES WERE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. SEE THE DEFINITIONS
SECTION FOR AN EXPLANATION OF A HEATING DEGREE DAY.

FROST DEPTHS ARE NEAR NORMAL...RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET. THE
EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK HAS LARGELY PREVENTED THE EXCESSIVE COLD FROM
PENETRATING MORE DEEPLY INTO THE SOILS THAN NORMAL.

SECTION 2.  THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...SLIGHT LAKE RISES EXPECTED.

DEVILS LAKE AND STUMP LAKE HAVE EQUALIZED AND ARE AT A LEVEL OF
ABOUT 1447 FEET...WHICH IS DOWN FROM A HIGH LAST JUNE OF 1447.95 FEET
AND A RECORD HIGH OF 1449.20 FEET IN MAY OF 2006.

THE FOLLOWING TABLES PROVIDE BOTH HIGH AND LOW WATER OUTLOOKS FOR
DEVILS LAKE AND STUMP LAKE. A HIGH WATER OUTLOOK GIVES THE CHANCE
OF WATER RISING ABOVE A CERTAIN LEVEL...IN THIS CASE BOTH DEVILS
LAKE AND STUMP LAKE COULD RISE BY A FOOT OR SO BY MID SUMMER.

THE LOW WATER OUTLOOK GIVES THE CHANCE OF WATER FALLING BELOW A
CERTAIN LEVEL...IN THIS CASE BOTH LAKES COULD FALL BY HALF A
FOOT OR SO BELOW CURRENT LEVELS BY LATE SUMMER.

              CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE
                        THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS

                 VALID MARCH 10, 2008 - SEPTEMBER 30, 2008

             90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CREEL BAY   1447.4 1447.6 1447.6 1447.8 1447.8 1447.9 1448.0 1448.2 1448.6
STUMP LAKE  1447.4 1447.6 1447.6 1447.8 1447.8 1447.9 1448.0 1448.2 1448.6

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS ALSO INCLUDING CHANCES THAT
DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES WILL FALL BELOW LEVELS GIVEN IN THE
PROBABILITY OF NON-EXCEEDANCE TABLE BELOW:

            CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES FALLING BELOW
                         THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS

             90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CREEL BAY   1446.9 1446.9 1446.9 1446.9 1446.9 1446.9 1446.9 1446.7 1446.6
STUMP LAKE  1446.9 1446.9 1446.9 1446.9 1446.9 1446.9 1446.9 1446.7 1446.6


...DEVILS LAKE BASIN HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

IN EARLY NOVEMBER...NOHRSC AIRBORNE GAMMA SOIL MOISTURE READINGS
INDICATED 20 TO 25 PERCENT MOISTURE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE SOIL.
ENTERING WINTER...THE SOIL CONDITIONS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WERE
SLIGHTLY DRY AND THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CHARACTERIZES THE
CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS AS ABNORMALLY DRY. DESPITE NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THIS WINTER...PRECIPITATION LAST FALL WAS 1 TO 2 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN
THE SOUTHERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH...AND NEARLY
2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...WHICH IS VERY NEAR NORMAL.

DEVILS LAKE AND STUMP LAKE HAVE EQUALIZED AND ARE AT A LEVEL OF ABOUT
1447 FEET DOWN FROM A HIGH LAST JUNE OF 1447.95 FEET AND A RECORD HIGH
OF 1449.20 FEET IN MAY OF 2006.

LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN OVER THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN DURING THE PAST 2 WEEKS.  THIS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK DEPTHS AND SNOW MOISTURE. SPRING RUNOFF HAS NOT
YET STARTED AND THE LAKE LEVELS REMAIN STEADY.

LONG RANGE SIMULATIONS FOR DEVILS LAKE THIS MONTH ASSUME THAT NO WATER
WILL BE PUMPED FROM DEVILS LAKE THIS YEAR.  LAST YEAR THE PUMP WAS
RARELY OPERATED IF AT ALL.

SECTION 3.  WHAT WENT INTO THIS OUTLOOK.

8 TO 14 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...WHICH GOES THROUGH MARCH 20TH INDICATES
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR SPRING 2008...

AT THE START OF THE WINTER SEASON DRY SOIL CONDITIONS COVERED MUCH
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY. AT THE END OF NOVEMBER...STREAM
FLOWS WERE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE RED
RIVER BASIN. WHILE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN DURING THE WINTER
SEASON...IT APPEARS LOW FLOWS HAVE PERSISTED BELOW THE ICE ON THE
MAIN STEM RED AND MOST POINTS ON THE MAJOR TRIBUTARIES.

WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN THE
AREAS THAT WERE THE DRIEST AT FALL FREEZE UP...WITH MOST THE RED
RIVER AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL WINTER
PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...CPC...INDICATES A STRONG LA NINA
IS OCCURRING IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. BASED ON DATA FROM THE CPC
AS WELL AS LOCAL RESEARCH...THIS WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE SPRING MELT SEASON.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVERAGE. AS A
RESULT...THE SNOW MELT RUNOFF COULD BE DELAYED...WITH AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR RAINFALL DURING THE MELT. IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPES...
IT COULD RESULT IN HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MODERATE FLOODING IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SPRING MONTHS OF APRIL AND MAY WILL LIKELY SEE THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN
CONTINUE. HISTORICALLY...THE SPRING SEASONS FOLLOWING MODERATE LA
NINA EVENTS ARE COLDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL.

THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST RESULTS OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE
STREAMFLOW MODEL. THE MODEL IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS USING
CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND SOIL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH ABOUT 50
YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED
DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...AND COMPARED AGAINST CURRENT SPRING
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.

LISTING A RANGE OF RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND PAST SPRING WEATHER GIVES THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF
RISK WHICH THEN HELPS WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE
READINESS. THIS OUTLOOK IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).

NWS FLOOD TERMS AND DEFINITIONS...

MINOR FLOODING INDICATES THAT MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE.
HOWEVER...SOME INCONVENIENCE TO THE PUBLIC IS POSSIBLE.

MODERATE FLOODING INDICATES THAT SECONDARY ROADS MAY BE UNDER
FLOOD WATERS AND SOME PROPERTY MAY HAVE TO BE MOVED TO HIGHER
GROUND. SOME EVACUATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED.

MAJOR FLOODING INDICATES THAT LARGE AREAS MAY BE FLOODED AND
PRIMARY ROADS MAY BE UNDER WATER. EVACUATION OF PEOPLE AND
LIVESTOCK MAY BE REQUIRED IN FLOODED AREAS.

A HEATING DEGREE DAY IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AND THE REFERENCE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW 65 F...
THE RESULT IS POSITIVE THUS IT IS AN INDICATOR OF THE
PUBLIC HEATING DEMAND. THE CUMULATIVE HEATING DEGREE DAYS
IS AN INDICATION OF HOW MUCH WARMER OR COLDER IT IS
COMPARED TO A NORMAL HEATING SEASON.

NEXT OUTLOOK AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABALISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH.
THEY ARE TYPICALLY ISSUED DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH...
HOWEVER...THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...27 MARCH 2008.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP INTERPRETING THEM
ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB PAGE ON THE
INTERNET AT:
                  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" LINK IN THE LEFT MENU.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN
THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.

THE U.S DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COOPERATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN THE NWS...THE
USDA AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. ITS WEB ADDRESS IS

             WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.

$$
MML/ME/GG





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