January AHPS Run Covers Snow Melt Period

...January 2009 AHPS River Outlooks...

This month’s long-range outlooks cover the time period from
January 27th through April 30th, 2009. Remember that these outlooks
are for planning purposes and give the probability of the river
exceeding various stages based on current conditions, and 50 years of
past precipitation and temperatures that occurred during the
period covered by this outlook.

Current snowpack conditions on the North Dakota side of the Red River
Basin: Snow depths of 20 to 30 inches exist in the headwaters of the
North Dakota Wild Rice River with water contents of 4 to 5 inches.
Portions of the Maple and lower Sheyenne River are covered with 15 to
20 inches of snow with 4 to 5 inches of water content. Elsewhere on
the North Dakota side of the Red River the Goose, Turtle, Park,
Forest and Pembina River Basins and northern Red River Valley have 8
to 15 inches of snow, with water contents of 2 to 4 inches.
 
On the Minnesota side of the Red River there are varied amounts of
snow depth. The Mustinka, Rabbit and lower Buffalo river basin have
16 to 20 inches of snow, with 3 to 4 inches of water content. The
Minnesota Wild Rice and Red Lake Basin have snow depths in the 12
to 16 inch range with water contents of 2 to 3 inches. The Minnesota
side of the northern Red River Valley also has 8 to 15 inches of
snow, with water contents of 2 to 4 inches.
 
Outlook for the rest of the winter and spring season: The development
of a La Nina in the equatorial Pacific will have an impact on the
late winter and spring snow-melt period. Historically, winter and
spring seasons with a La Nina are slightly cooler and wetter than
the long term average. At this time it is not possible to forecast
how much additional snow will accumulate through the start of the
melt cycle, but history suggests an additional 20 to 25 inches
of snow by the end of March. The outlooks already take into account
the threat of above normal precipitation, and these are represented
by the lower probabilities.
 
The conditions within the Red River Basin will change during the
spring, so subsequent outlooks will also change. As the hydrologic
picture develops; the outlooks will become more accurate and precise
as we get nearer to the spring flood. For factors influencing the
magnitude of flooding in the Red River Valley, see the Red River
flood factors link, or the link to the North Dakota Geological
Surveys flood factors article, both of which are available from the
other information tab on our AHPS web page.
 

 

...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTNETIAL...
 
                            RED RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
               VALID JANUARY 27, 2009 - APRIL 30, 2009
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS GIVE THE CHANCE
THAT THE RIVER AT A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL RISE ABOVE THE STAGES
INDICATED BY THE VALUES IN THE ROW FOR THAT LOCATION ANYTIME DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
 
EXAMPLE: THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET.
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RED RIVER
AT WAHPETON WILL RISE ABOVE 13.5 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 18.1 FEET.
 
       CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MAINSTEM RED RIVER LOCATIONS
                          VALID  1/27/2009 - 4/30/2009
 
LOCATION   FS(FT)   90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
--------     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 WAHPETON ND   10   11.6   12.3   12.8   13.0   13.5   14.5   15.2   16.1   18.1
 FARGO ND      18   30.4   32.7   33.3   33.7   34.2   35.1   35.9   37.2   38.7
 HALSTAD ND    26   30.1   34.0   35.7   36.8   37.6   38.0   38.6   39.2   40.0
 GRAND FORKS   28   41.9   43.4   44.4   44.9   45.7   46.6   47.2   48.8   50.0
 OSLO MN       26   34.6   35.3   35.7   35.8   36.2   36.6   36.9   37.6   37.9
 DRAYTON ND    32   40.2   40.7   41.4   41.6   42.0   42.5   43.0   43.8   44.3
 PEMBINA ND    42   49.3   50.9   51.5   51.8   52.2   52.5   52.8   53.3   53.7
 
         CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MINNESOTA TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS
                     VALID  1/27/2009 - 4/30/2009
 
LOCATION   FS(FT)   90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
--------     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
SO FORK BUFFALO RIVER...
 SABIN         12   14.3   14.8   15.4   15.8   16.1   16.4   16.8   17.5   18.9
BUFFALO RIVER...
 HAWLEY         7    8.9    9.3    9.5    9.6    9.9   10.0   10.4   11.1   12.5
 DILWORTH      12   20.7   21.6   22.3   22.7   23.2   23.5   24.1   24.8   25.9
WILD RICE RIVER...
 TWIN VALLEY   10    8.4    9.0    9.6    9.8   10.4   10.6   11.2   12.4   13.3
 HENDRUM       20   27.7   29.2   30.1   30.9   31.5   31.8   32.1   32.5   33.5
MARSH RIVER...
 SHELLY        14   12.1   15.9   17.1   17.8   19.2   20.1   20.8   22.9   24.5
SAND HILL RIVER...
 CLIMAX        20   19.0   23.1   24.6   25.3   27.2   27.8   28.6   29.6   31.0
RED LAKE RIVER...
 HIGHLANDING   12   10.7   11.0   11.1   11.2   11.5   11.6   11.9   12.9   14.3
 CROOKSTON     15   16.9   19.1   19.8   20.5   20.9   22.0   22.5   23.3   24.9
SNAKE RIVER...
 WARREN       845  842.7  842.8  843.0  843.2  843.3  843.6  844.0  844.7  847.4
 ALVARADO     106  104.1  104.7  105.2  106.1  106.4  107.1  107.4  108.2  109.4
TWO RIVERS RIVER...
 HALLOCK      802  804.1  805.5  806.1  806.6  807.1  807.7  808.3  809.4  810.3
ROSEAU RIVER...
 ROSEAU        16   11.4   12.1   12.6   13.5   14.1   14.6   15.4   17.5   18.7
 
         CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS
                     VALID  1/27/2009 - 4/30/2009
 
LOCATION   FS(FT)   90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
--------     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
WILD RICE RIVER...
 ABERCROMBIE   10   19.9   21.5   22.5   22.9   23.3   23.8   24.9   25.9   28.2
SHEYENNE RIVER...
 VALLEY CITY   15    7.7    8.3    9.2    9.6   10.4   11.5   11.9   12.9   15.1
 LISBON        11    7.7    9.7   11.4   12.2   13.3   14.2   15.7   16.9   18.4
 KINDRED       16   11.9   14.3   15.5   17.6   19.2   19.9   20.4   20.6   20.6
 HARWOOD      884  889.3  890.3  891.0  891.3  891.6  891.8  892.0  892.1  892.2
 WEST FARGO    18   20.0   21.0   21.7   22.0   22.3   22.5   22.7   22.8   22.9
MAPLE RIVER...
 ENDERLIN       9    8.8    9.9   10.4   11.0   11.4   11.6   12.0   13.0   14.3
 MAPLETON     905  907.4  908.0  908.1  908.3  908.5  908.6  909.1  909.5  910.0
GOOSE RIVER...
 HILLSBORO     10    8.7   10.3   11.5   12.1   13.1   13.3   13.8   14.3   15.7
FOREST RIVER...
 MINTO          6    4.2    4.8    5.1    5.4    5.6    5.9    6.1    6.8    7.1
PARK RIVER...
 GRAFTON       12   12.1   12.8   13.3   13.9   14.7   15.3   16.2   16.9   18.5
PEMBINA RIVER...
 WALHALLA      11   10.5   11.6   12.4   13.0   13.2   13.8   14.2   14.5   14.9
 NECHE         18   19.1   20.3   21.0   21.1   21.1   21.2   21.3   21.5   21.6
 
THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...
 
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST RESULTS OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE
STREAMFLOW MODEL (ESF). THE MODEL IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS
USING CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND SOIL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH ABOUT
50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...AND COMPARED AGAINST CURRENT
SPRING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.
 
PROVIDING A RANGE OF RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND PAST SPRING WEATHER...THE OUTLOOK GIVES EXPECTED
AMOUNTS OF RISK WHICH CAN THEN HELP WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING
AND RESPONSE READINESS. THIS OUTLOOK IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).
 
FORECASTERS PRODUCE MULTIPLE SCENARIO HYDROGRAPHS USING THE ESF
MODEL INITIALIZED WITH RECENT RAIN/SNOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
IN THE RED RIVER BASIN AND APPLYING SETS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE YEARS 1949 THROUGH 2004 AND FOR THE VALID
PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...
 
THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABALISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH
TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND FRIDAY AFTER MID-MONTH.
HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL SPRING MELT PERIOD...USUALLY
FROM EARLY MARCH TO EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING ON CONDITIONS.
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP INTERPRETING THEM
ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB PAGE ON THE
INTERNET AT:
                  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS
 
THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" LINK IN THE LEFT MENU.
 
CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN
THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.
 
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.
 
 

 



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