April 3rd AHPS Run

As a part of the updated Red River Outlooks, the NWS has provided the entire suite of Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services Products available here. Please find below the text product describing the probabilities at each of our forecast points.

 

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2009

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS...

...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTNETIAL...

RED RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID APRIL 9, 2009 - JUNE 1, 2009


IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS GIVE THE CHANCE
THAT THE RIVER AT A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL RISE ABOVE THE STAGES
INDICATED BY THE VALUES IN THE ROW FOR THAT LOCATION ANYTIME DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

EXAMPLE: THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET.
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RED RIVER
AT WAHPETON WILL RISE ABOVE 18.6 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 19.9 FEET.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MAINSTEM RED RIVER LOCATIONS
VALID 4/9/2009 - 7/8/2009

LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
WAHPETON ND 10 17.3 18.0 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.9
FARGO ND 18 40.4 40.8 41.2 41.4 41.7 41.9 42.4 43.3 44.6
HALSTAD ND 26 39.2 39.4 39.7 39.9 40.0 40.2 40.7 41.2 42.3
GRAND FORKS 28 49.8 50.3 50.7 51.2 51.7 52.1 52.7 53.8 56.1
OSLO MN 26 37.8 38.0 38.1 38.4 38.6 38.7 38.9 39.4 40.3
DRAYTON ND 32 43.6 43.9 44.1 44.5 44.7 44.9 45.2 46.1 46.6
PEMBINA ND 42 53.8 53.8 54.0 54.1 54.2 54.4 54.5 54.7 54.9


CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MINNESOTA TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS
VALID 4/9/2009 - 7/8/2009


LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
SO FORK BUFFALO RIVER...
SABIN 12 16.3 16.5 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.4
BUFFALO RIVER...
HAWLEY 7 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.2 11.6 11.9
DILWORTH 12 23.3 23.5 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.6 25.3 25.9
WILD RICE RIVER...
TWIN VALLEY 10 11.3 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.4 14.0
HENDRUM 20 32.6 33.0 33.1 33.3 33.4 33.7 34.1 36.4 39.2
MARSH RIVER...
SHELLY 14 20.5 21.0 21.3 21.9 22.7 23.1 23.6 24.3 25.2
SAND HILL RIVER...
CLIMAX 20 32.7 33.6 33.9 34.6 35.7 36.5 37.1 37.7 38.5
RED LAKE RIVER...
HIGHLANDING 12 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.1
CROOKSTON 15 22.7 23.8 24.0 24.7 25.3 25.7 26.3 26.7 28.6
SNAKE RIVER...
WARREN 845 842.6 842.6 842.7 842.7 842.8 842.9 843.0 843.7 845.4
ALVARADO 106 104.4 104.6 105.0 105.2 105.9 106.2 107.1 107.9 108.9
TWO RIVERS RIVER...
HALLOCK 802 808.6 808.9 809.2 809.4 809.7 809.9 810.1 810.3 810.8
ROSEAU RIVER...
ROSEAU 16 14.3 15.8 16.2 16.4 17.3 17.7 18.9 19.7 21.0


CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS
VALID 4/9/2009 - 7/8/2009

LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
WILD RICE RIVER...
ABERCROMBIE 10 26.7 27.0 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.6 29.5 30.5
SHEYENNE RIVER...
KINDRED 16 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6
HARWOOD 884 892.1 892.1 892.1 892.1 892.2 892.2 892.2 892.3 892.3
WEST FARGO 18 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.0
MAPLE RIVER...
ENDERLIN 9 13.9 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.4 17.3
MAPLETON 905 909.3 909.5 909.6 909.7 909.8 910.0 910.1 910.4 911.0
GOOSE RIVER...
HILLSBORO 10 14.5 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.6
FOREST RIVER...
MINTO 6 7.2 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.4
PARK RIVER...
GRAFTON 12 14.7 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.2 18.4
PEMBINA RIVER...
WALHALLA 11 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2
NECHE 18 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.8

THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST RESULTS OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE
STREAMFLOW MODEL (ESF). THE MODEL IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS
USING CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND SOIL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH ABOUT
50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...AND COMPARED AGAINST CURRENT
SPRING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.

PROVIDING A RANGE OF RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND PAST SPRING WEATHER...THE OUTLOOK GIVES EXPECTED
AMOUNTS OF RISK WHICH CAN THEN HELP WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING
AND RESPONSE READINESS. THIS OUTLOOK IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).

FORECASTERS PRODUCE MULTIPLE SCENARIO HYDROGRAPHS USING THE ESF
MODEL INITIALIZED WITH RECENT RAIN/SNOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
IN THE RED RIVER BASIN AND APPLYING SETS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE YEARS 1949 THROUGH 2004 AND FOR THE VALID
PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABALISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH
TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND FRIDAY AFTER MID-MONTH.
HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL SPRING MELT PERIOD...USUALLY
FROM EARLY MARCH TO EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING ON CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP INTERPRETING THEM
ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB PAGE ON THE
INTERNET AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" LINK IN THE LEFT MENU.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN
THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.

$$
TEAM FGF

 



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