Spring Thaw Progress for the Red River of the North (Updated 3/9/2012)

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1152 AM CST FRI MAR 09 2012
 
...SPRING THAW PROGRESS FOR THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...
 
   ...SNOW MELT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
 
   ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO
   BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK.
   THE EXISTING SNOW PACK HAS CURRENTLY COOLED TO NEAR SEASONAL
   NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT IS EXPECTED TO RIPEN AND WARM TO THE
  MELTING POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND BEGIN THE RUNOFF PROCESS
   IN EARNEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
 
   RED RIVER BASIN STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
   NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...SOUTH OF THE FARGO MOORHEAD
   AREA...WILL SEE INCREASING FLOWS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STREAMS
   AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RED
   RIVER BASIN WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING RUNOFF AND FLOWS EARLY
   IN THE COMING WEEK.
 
   DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE
   UPPER 30S INTO THE UPPER 40S BY SUNDAY...WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS
   DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. THIS WILL HELP TO MODERATE THE
   INITIAL MELT AND RUNOFF.
 
   PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY USHER IN A MUCH
   WARMER PERIOD FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
   FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
   WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.
 
   THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK...MOST LOCAL TRIBUTARIES SHOULD BE OPENLY
  FLOWING AND APPROACHING LOCAL ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGES. THE
   MAINSTEM RED RIVER WILL LIKELY BE SEEING RISES AS WELL...WITH
   INCREASING FLOWS BEGINNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS AREA STREAMS
   CONTRIBUTE. EXPECT INITIAL DETERMINISTIC FLOOD FORECASTS TO
   BEGIN EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK.
   
   THE US ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS PLANS TO HOLD RELEASES AT BALDHILL
   DAM AND CONTINUE DRAW DOWN RELEASES AT LAKE TRAVERSE...ORWELL
   LAKE AND THE RED LAKE RESERVOIRS. RELEASES WILL BE REEVALUATED
   AS LOCAL RUNOFF DEVELOPS.
 
. SPECIAL HYDRO/FLOOD CONCERNS...
 
* A QUICKER THAN NORMAL SNOW MELT COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH RUN OFF
   THAT WOULD CAUSE SOME ICE JAM FLOODING AT RIVER LOCATIONS
   TYPICALLY PRONE TO THEM...SUCH AS AT TRIBUTARY CONFLUENCES...
   TIGHT RIVER BENDS...LESSENING OF RIVER CHANNEL STEEPNESS AND AT
   NATURAL OR MAN MADE RIVER CONSTRICTIONS...SUCH AS BRIDGES OR LOW
   HEAD DAMS. ICE JAMS TYPICALLY SET UP QUICKLY AND ARE HARD TO
   PREDICT USING CONVENTIONAL RIVER MODELS. IF THE NWS IS NOTIFIED
   OF AN ICE JAM FLOOD...WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING.
 
. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
 
* THE NWS OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING WEATHER
   AND RIVER CONDITIONS AND ISSUE FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS...AS
   WELL AS 7 DAY RIVER FORECASTS WHEN WE EXPECT THE RIVER TO REACH
   OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.
 
* IF NEEDED...THE NEXT PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR SPRING
   FLOODING WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY MARCH 22TH 2012.



Return to News Archive

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.