National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND

145 PM DST TUE MAR 13 2012

...SPRING THAW PROGRESS FOR THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...

...LITTLE SNOW COVER REMAINS IN THE RED RIVER BASIN...

   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINS ON MONDAY HAVE MELTED MOST OF

   THE BASIN SNOWPACK. THIN REMNANTS OF SNOW EXIST IN MINNESOTA NEAR

   THE RED LAKES AND WEST OF A LINE FROM FOSSTON TO DETROIT LAKES.

   OTHERWISE MOST AREAS ARE 90 PERCENT OR MORE SNOW FREE.

   IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF HALSTAD...HEADWATERS AREAS OF

   MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES ARE SEEING OPEN CHANNELS AND

   INCREASING FLOW TOWARDS THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER. FOR LOWER REACHES

   OF THESE TRIBUTARIES...NEARER THE MAINSTEM RED...MOST AREAS HAVE

   A LAYER OF WATER OVER THE DARKENING AND MELTING RIVER ICE. THIS

   EXISTING RIVER ICE IS STARTING TO THIN...AND WITH THE EXPECTED

   WARM WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEK...MOST OF THIS ICE WILL EITHER

   MELT OR BREAK UP AND BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE SYSTEM.

   THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON/BRECKENRIDGE HAS RISEN TO NEAR ACTION

   STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR ACTION OR JUST BELOW MINOR

   FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MOST TRIBUTARIES AND

   THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER FROM HALSTAD THROUGH POINTS SOUTH WILL

   MOVE TOWARDS MORE OPEN FLOW WITH SLOW AND STEADY RISES EXPECTED

   THROUGH THE WEEK.

   NORTH OF HALSTAD...HEADWATERS AREAS OF MOST NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA

   AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES ARE SEEING INCREASINGLY

   OPEN CHANNELS WITH WATER MOVING OVER THE RIVER ICE AT LOWER

   ELEVATIONS NEARER THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER. LOWER REACHES OF THESE

   TRIBUTARIES AND THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER WILL NEED SEVERAL MORE

   DAYS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR BEFORE THE RIVER ICE IS DISLODGED

   OR DISINTERGRATED...BUT MOST ICE SHOULD BE GONE BY NEXT WEEK.

   RED RIVER BASIN STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH

   DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WILL SEE INCREASING FLOWS FROM

   TODAY INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK.

   DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL RANGE FROM THE

   MID 50S INTO THE LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY...WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS

   FROM THE MID 30S INTO THE MID 40S. THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE

   THAW PROCESS AND RUNOFF.

   FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A RISK

   FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH

   OF THE AREA. SINCE MOST AREA SOILS ARE EITHER WET...DAMP OR STILL

   PARTIALLY FROZEN ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD AFFECT LOCAL

   FLOODING POTENTIAL.

   THE US ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS PLANS TO REDUCE TO MINIMAL RELEASES

   AT BALDHILL...WHITEROCK...AND HOMME DAMS. OUTFLOWS FROM ORWELL

   LAKE RESERVOIR ARE CURRENTLY SET TO MATCH INFLOWS. RED LAKE

   RESERVOIR LEVELS APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED AND MINIMAL ADDITIONAL

   RELEASES ARE EXPECTED THERE. MOST RESERVOIRS HAVE SOME AVAILABLE

   STORAGE FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RUNOFF IN THE COMING WEEK.

. SPECIAL HYDRO/FLOOD CONCERNS...

* A QUICKER THAN NORMAL SNOW MELT COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH RUNOFF

   THAT WOULD CAUSE SOME ICE JAM FLOODING AT RIVER LOCATIONS

   TYPICALLY PRONE TO THEM...SUCH AS AROUND TRIBUTARY CONFLUENCES...

   TIGHT RIVER BENDS...LESSENING OF RIVER CHANNEL STEEPNESS AND AT

   NATURAL OR MAN-MADE RIVER CONSTRICTIONS...SUCH AS BRIDGES OR LOW

   HEAD DAMS. ICE JAMS TYPICALLY SET UP QUICKLY AND ARE HARD TO

   PREDICT USING CONVENTIONAL RIVER MODELS. IF THE NATIONAL WEATHER

   SERVICE IS NOTIFIED OF AN ICE JAM FLOOD...WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH

   FLOOD WARNING.

. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

* THE NWS OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING WEATHER

   AND RIVER CONDITIONS AND ISSUE FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS...AS

   WELL AS 7 DAY RIVER FORECASTS WHEN WE EXPECT THE RIVER TO REACH

   OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

* IF NEEDED...THE NEXT PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR SPRING

   FLOODING WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY MARCH 22TH 2012.

$$

TEAM FGF

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