July 26 2012 Drought Information Statement

...RECENT RAINS GENERALLY INSUFFICIENT TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT DROUGHT...

SYNOPSIS...
THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ADDRESSES THE COUNTIES WITHIN
THE GRAND FORKS AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. CHECK NEIGHBORING WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON DROUGHT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS OF MINNESOTA.

DESPITE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
MUCH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA REMAIN IN VARIOUS LEVELS OF DROUGHT. CONDITIONS RANGE
FROM ABNORMALLY DRY IN MUCH OF THE DEVILS LAKE...LOWER ROSEAU
RIVER AND OTTERTAIL RIVER BASINS TO MODERATE OR SEVERE DROUGHT
ELSEWHERE IN THE RED RIVER BASIN.

SOUTHWEST LAKE OF THE WOODS...NORTHERN BELTRAMI...SOUTHEAST
MARSHALL...MOST OF POLK...RED LAKE...PENNINGTON...NORMAN...
NORTHWEST CLAY AND MAHNOMEN COUNTIES OF MINNESOTA REMAIN IN
SEVERE DROUGHT. ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHERN
NELSON...SOUTHERN GRAND FORKS...STEELE...TRAILL...GRIGGS...
BARNES...CASS... RANSOM...SARGENT AND NORTHWEST RICHLAND COUNTIES
ARE IN SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN...SOME OF IT EXCESSIVE...FELL
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS
BROUGHT COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION BUT MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
ASSESSMENTS OF CROP CONDITIONS AND RECENT RAIN IMPACTS ARE ONGOING
AND WILL BE EMPLOYED FOR THE NEXT STATEMENT.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST...THE IMPACTS ON MANY CROPS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE BECOMING MORE APPARENT. REPORTS FROM LOCAL AND
STATE AGENCIES INDICATE THAT GRIGGS...TRAILL AND STEELE COUNTIES
IN NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL AS POLK...MAHNOMEN...NORMAM...RED LAKE
AND PENNINGTON COUNTIES ARE SEEING THE GREATEST IMPACTS OF THE
DROUGHT. AT A TIME WHEN THE CROP WATER USAGE IS NEAR THE MAXIMUM
FOR MANY PLANTS...RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN MEETING THE DEMAND.
BASED ON DATA FROM THE USDA...THE REGION HAS SEEN 300 TO 400
ADDITIONAL GROWING DEGREE DAYS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD MARCH
1ST THROUGH JULY 21ST. EVAPORATION RATES...BOTH MEASURED AND
CALCULATED...HAVE FAR SURPASSED THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
SAME PERIOD FURTHER INDICATING THE SEVERITY OF THE DRY CONDITIONS
IN MANY AREAS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
BASED ON INFORMATION PROVIDED BY STATE AND FEDERAL AGENCIES...THE
SOIL MOISTURE IN THE TOP 3 FEET HAS A DEFICIT OF 50 TO 75 PERCENT
BELOW NORMAL IN THE SEVERE DROUGHT AREA. THE USDA HAS RATED TOP-
SOILS 20 PERCENT VERY SHORT TO 53 PERCENT SHORT AS OF JULY 24TH
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND 21 PERCENT VERY SHORT TO 35 PERCENT SHORT
ACROSS MINNESOTA.

ACCORDING TO THE NASA SOIL MOISTURE AND PRINCETON VIC RATING
SYSTEMS...MUCH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS RATED AS HAVING SOIL
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER 20 PERCENT IN THE TOP 3 FEET. IN THE CENTRAL
RED RIVER VALLEY THE TOP 3 FEET ARE RATED IN THE LOWEST 5 PERCENT
OF HISTORIC SOIL MOISTURE.

GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS.
DESPITE THE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...MOST RIVERS IN THE REGION
CONTINUE TO SEE LOW TO VERY LOW FLOWS. RIVER RESPONSES WITHIN THE
HEAVY RAIN AREAS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN MINOR...1 FOOT OR LESS. USGS
GROUNDWATER DATA SUGGEST A CONTINUED DECLINE IN THE WATER TABLE
ACROSS THE REGION.

FIRE DANGER HAZARDS.
THE INFORMATION BELOW IS PROVIDED BY THE RESPECTIVE STATE
AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR FIRE WEATHER MONITORING AND FIRE
SAFETY...AND IS VALID AS OF JULY 26 2012. CHECK WITH THE
RESPECTIVE WEB PAGES FOR UPDATES.

AS OF JULY 26TH THE MINNESOTA DNR INDICATES THE FIRE HAZARD AS
MODERATE IN KITTSON...ROSEAU...MARSHALL...POLK...PENNINGTON...RED
LAKE...MAHNOMEN...CLEARWATER...BELTRAMI AND NORTHERN HUBBARD
COUNTIES.

ACCORDING TO THE NORTH DAKOTA DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY THE
ONLY BURN BAN CURRENTLY POSTED IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS FOR
PEMBINA COUNTY.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
IT WAS A LITTLE COOLER THE PAST WEEK WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE LATE JULY NORMALS.
FARGO TIED A HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 100 DEGREES ON JULY
20TH...WHILE TYING THE RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE THAT
MORNING. THE UND/NWS CLIMATE STATION TIED ITS WARMEST MINIMUM ON
JULY 20TH AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...FARGO CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE
ITS WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE YEAR...EXCEEDING THE YEAR
1987 BY 1.1 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FELL FROM KATHRYN AND KINDRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE HAWLEY...ROTHSAY...BARNESVILLE
AND NEW YORK MILLS AREAS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
FELL FROM DEVILS LAKE THROUGH GRAND FORKS. THE AREAS COVERED BY
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN CONDITIONS.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE COOLER WEATHER BEHIND THE STORM WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND CONTINUING INTO END OF JULY.
THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST FULL WEEK
OF AUGUST. AT THIS TIME THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS NOT FORECAST TO BE AS EXTREME AS RECENT
WEEKS.

THE MONTHLY CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 2012 SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AS INDICATED THERE HAVE BEEN MINOR RISES ON THE RIVERS...CREEKS
AND STREAMS IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE BASE FLOWS ON MANY AREA RIVERS ARE NEARLY STEADY OR
SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE. ALONG THE MAIN STEM RED RIVER...FLOWS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50TH PERCENTILE OR LOWER RANGE. AT DRAYTON
IT IS AT THE 21ST PERCENTILE LEVEL. SOME OF THE TRIBUTARIES ARE
SEEING LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOWS WITH A FEW GAGING
SITES AT VERY LOW OR NO MEASURABLE FLOW CONDITIONS. THE RUSH
RIVER NEAR AMENIA AND THE MAPLE NEAR HOPE NORTH DAKOTA ARE PRETTY
MUCH AT NO MEASURABLE FLOW CONDITIONS. SIMILAR VERY LOW FLOWS ARE
SEEN ON THE ROSEAU RIVER NEAR MALUNG...THE SANDHILL RIVER NEAR
CLIMAX AND THE MARSH RIVER NEAR SHELLY MINNESOTA.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON AUGUST 2 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN
RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://MCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU
HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.HPRCC.UNL.EDU
MINNESOTA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://CLIMATE.UMN.EDU

ND STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...
HTTP://WWW.NDSU.NODAK.EDU/NDSU/NDSCO

FIRE DANGER
MN DNR...
WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/FORESTY/FIRE/FIRERATING_RESTRICTIONS.HTML

ND DES...
WWW.ND.GOV/DES/PLANNING/FIRE-DANGER-AWARENESS/

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
4797 TECHNOLOGY CIRCLE
GRAND FORKS ND 58203
PHONE...701-772-0720 X327
MARK.EWENS@NOAA.GOV

$$

EWENS/BRAMER



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